Recent changes in dry spell and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia

Seleshi, Yilma; Camberlin, Pierre

doi:10.1007/s00704-005-0134-3

Cited by 165 publications

(106 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…This is in accordance with previous studies (Seleshi and Zanke 2004;Seleshi and Camberlin 2006;Funk, Dettinger et al 2008;.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

“…However, there is little evidence for precipitation trends in this region, neither in seasonal precipitation amounts, nor in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (Meze-Hausken 2004;Seleshi and Zanke 2004;Seleshi and Camberlin 2006;Bewket and Conway 2007). On the other hand, precipitation declines in southern and eastern Ethiopia have been documented, most strongly for the spring season (Seleshi and Zanke 2004;Seleshi and Camberlin 2006;Funk, Dettinger et al 2008;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

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Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

Viste

Korecha

Sorteberg

2012

Theor Appl Climatol

366

273

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In 2011, drought in the Horn of Africa again made news headlines. This study aims to quantify the meteorological component of this and other drought episodes in Ethiopia since 1971. A monthly precipitation data set for 14 homogeneous rainfall zones was constructed based on 174 gauge observations. As a measure of drought, the Standardized Precipitation Index was calculated on seasonal, annual and biannual timescales for each zone. The results point to 2009 as a year of exceptionally widespread drought. All zones experienced some degree of drought at the annual scale, although in most zones, previous droughts were more extreme. On the national level, 2009 was the second driest year in the period, surpassed only by the historic drought year 1984. Linear regression analysis indicates a general decline in precipitation in southern Ethiopia, during both February-May and June-September. In the central and northern highlands, the trend analysis did not provide evidence of similar tendencies. However, spring droughts have appeared more frequently in all parts of Ethiopia during the last 10-15 years than during the previous decades.

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“…This is in accordance with previous studies (Seleshi and Zanke 2004;Seleshi and Camberlin 2006;Funk, Dettinger et al 2008;.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 94%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

Viste

Korecha

Sorteberg

2012

Theor Appl Climatol

366

273

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“…This was supported by Seleshi and Zanke (2004) who found no significant trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall totals in the central, northern and northwestern parts of the country over the period 1965-2002, however, did find significant declines in the annual and kiremt rainfall totals in the eastern, southern and southwestern parts of Ethiopia. Seleshi and Camberlin (2006) reported absence of trends in many indices of extreme rainfall events for the kiremt and belg rainfall seasons in much of Ethiopia and absence of trend in the length of maximum dry spells (days with <1 mm rainfall) in both seasons. Conway et al (2004) analysed the 104 year rainfall record at Addis Ababa in the central Ethiopian highlands and found no trend over the period .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

A note on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the drought‐prone Amhara region of Ethiopia

Bewket

Conway

2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

224

143

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Abstract:The aim of this study is to characterise rainfall variability and trend in the drought-prone Amhara Regional State of Ethiopia using standard rainfall statistical descriptors. A review of previous studies of Ethiopian rainfall shows different conclusions between studies about the existence of trends primarily due to their use of different periods of analysis. Various rainfall indicator series are presented and analysed for trend on annual, seasonal and daily time steps (including wet-day amounts and probabilities, percentiles and dry spell lengths). Two periods are used for analysis : 1975-2003 (12 stations) to optimise station density and 1961-2003 (five stations) to optimise record length in this relatively poorly monitored region.A complex picture of rainfall variability emerges from the analysis, both in terms of spatial variability and temporal variability, from decadal to daily timescales. The results generally support those of the previous studies in Ethiopia with the additional findings that: (1) High levels of spatial variability exist at subregional scales in Ethiopia that are unlikely to be fully explained by large-scale climate influences; (2) Choice of study period strongly influences the results of trend analysis in this region due to the effects of decadal variability (particularly because the 1980s was the driest decade and the 1990s the wettest decade on record); (3) Annual rainfall in the region recovered during the 1990s, although [2001][2002][2003] were average or slightly lower; and (4) There are no consistent emergent patterns or trends in daily rainfall characteristics in this part of Ethiopia.

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“…A number of studies have been conducted in Ethiopia on climate characterization such as number of rainy days, length of growing period, onset and offset of seasonal and annual rainfall. Few of them highlighted the heavy losses in major crop production in the country due to prolonged dry spells and the importance of studying the temporal and spatial variability of dry spells (Seleshi and Zanke, 2004;Seleshi and Camberlin, 2006;Hadgu, et al, 2013). However, nothing has been done so far in eastern Hararghe in regarding with either climate characterization or dry spell analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dry spell length analysis for crop production using Markov-Chain model in Eastern Hararghe, Ethiopia

Sorecha

Bayissa

2017

J.Degrade.Min.Land Manage.

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Abstract:The information on the length of dry spells could be used for deciding a particular crop or variety, supplementary irrigation water demand and for others agricultural activities. The study was conducted in three districts: Babile, Haramaya and Kersa, eastern Hararghe, Ethiopia. The aim of the study was to analyze dry spell lengths and its implications on crop production in eastern Hararghe, so as to minimize unexpected damage due to long dry spells and to have effective and efficient planning for farming communities.Thirty years of rainfall data for each district were collected form National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. Data quality control has been done prior to analysis. Markov-Chain model were employed to analyze the collected data. The result of the study revealed that dry spells were highly hitting Babile district comparing to the other two districts. The probability of dry spell lengths of 5 and 7 days in Babile district was found to be about 99 and 80%, respectively.Whereas, in Haramaya district, the probability of dry spell length of 5 days was found to be 80% during 181(Days of the Year) DOY, then it falls to below 50 % by 221DOY. Moreover, the probability of the occurrences of dry spells of 10, 15, and 20 days were below 5% in Haramaya district during the main rainy season. The study also investigated that in Kersa district, the probability of occurrences of the dry spell lengths of 5, 7, 10, 15, and 20 days were estimated to fall below 30%, showing that the area was better in crop production as compared to the rest districts. The annual rainfalls in all the districts were decreasing as per the trend line and variable in all the districts: Babile, Haramaya and Kersa districts, having the CV values of, 41, 34 and 31%, respectively.Information regarding dry spell length analysis has to be well understoodat grass root levels to ensure food security via lifesaving irrigation schemes or any other options. Keywords: crop production, dry spells, Ethiopia, Markov-chain modelTo cite this article: Sorecha, E.M. and Bayissa, B. 2017. Dry spell length analysis for crop production using Markov-Chain model in Eastern Hararghe, Ethiopia. J. Degrade. Min. Land Manage. 4(4): 891-897,

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Recent changes in dry spell and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia

Cited by 165 publications

References 19 publications

Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia

A note on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the drought‐prone Amhara region of Ethiopia

Dry spell length analysis for crop production using Markov-Chain model in Eastern Hararghe, Ethiopia

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