Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus

Ogden, Nicholas H.; Milka, Radojevi¿; Caminade, Cyril; Gachon, Philippe

doi:10.1186/preaccept-1602596875143833

Cited by 17 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…albopictus in much of the eastern tier of the United States compared with the west, which is consistent with the presence records (Fig. 1b) and other published studies (Benedict et al 2007, Medley 2010, Fischer et al 2011, Ogden et al 2014, Campbell et al 2015, Kraemer et al 2015a, Proestos et al 2015). Suitability was based almost equally on winter GDDs and precipitation during the driest month of the year.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

Johnson

Haque

Monaghan

et al. 2017

Journal of Medical Entomology

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The mosquitoes Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (L.)(Diptera:Culicidae) and Ae. (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera:Culicidae) transmit dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses and represent a growing public health threat in parts of the United States where they are established. To complement existing mosquito presence records based on discontinuous, non-systematic surveillance efforts, we developed county-scale environmental suitability maps for both species using maximum entropy modeling to fit climatic variables to county presence records from 1960–2016 in the contiguous United States. The predictive models for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus had an overall accuracy of 0.84 and 0.85, respectively. Cumulative growing degree days (GDDs) during the winter months, an indicator of overall warmth, was the most important predictive variable for both species and was positively associated with environmental suitability. The number (percentage) of counties classified as environmentally suitable, based on models with 90 or 99% sensitivity, ranged from 1,443 (46%) to 2,209 (71%) for Ae. aegypti and from 1,726 (55%) to 2,329 (75%) for Ae. albopictus. Increasing model sensitivity results in more counties classified as suitable, at least for summer survival, from which there are no mosquito records. We anticipate that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus will be found more commonly in counties classified as suitable based on the lower 90% sensitivity threshold compared with the higher 99% threshold. Counties predicted suitable with 90% sensitivity should therefore be a top priority for expanded mosquito surveillance efforts while still keeping in mind that Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus may be introduced, via accidental transport of eggs or immatures, and potentially proliferate during the warmest part of the year anywhere within the geographic areas delineated by the 99% sensitivity model.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

Johnson

Haque

Monaghan

et al. 2017

Journal of Medical Entomology

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“…We conclude that Ae . albopictus is expanding northward in the northeastern U.S. and this trend is anticipated to accelerate under conditions of climate change as previously noted [28, 29]. …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 82%

Northern range expansion of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus): Analysis of mosquito data from Connecticut, USA

et al. 2017

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BackgroundThe Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) is an invasive species and important arbovirus vector that was introduced into the U.S. in the 1980's where it continues to expand its range. Winter temperature is an important constraint to its northward expansion, with potential range limits located between the 0° and -5°C mean cold month isotherm. Connecticut is located within this climatic zone and therefore, Ae. albopictus was monitored statewide to assess its northern range expansion and to delineate where populations can stably persist.Methodology/Principal findingsAe. albopictus females were monitored at fixed trapping sites throughout Connecticut from June-October over a 20-year period, 1997–2016. In addition, Ae. albopictus larvae and pupae were collected from tire habitats and tires were retrieved from the field in the spring and flooded to evaluate overwintering success of hatching larvae. Ae. albopictus was first detected during statewide surveillance when a single adult female was collected in 2006. This species was not collected again until 2010 and was subsequently detected each successive year with increasing abundance and distribution except following the unusually cold winters of 2014 and 2015. Ae. albopictus mosquitoes were most abundant in urban and suburban locations along the southwestern shoreline of Connecticut; however, single specimens were occasionally detected in central parts of the state. Field-collected females were also screened for arbovirus infection yielding two isolations of Cache Valley virus and one isolation of West Nile virus, highlighting the threat posed by this mosquito. Ae. albopictus overwintered in Connecticut under mild winter conditions as shown by recovery of hatched larvae from field collected tires in spring and by early season detection of larvae and pupae.Conclusions/SignificanceThis study documents the establishment and expansion of Ae. albopictus at the northern boundary of its range in the northeastern U.S. and provides a baseline for monitoring the future spread of this species anticipated under climate change.

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“…In some cases, we developed multiple winter climate change indicators from a single threshold. For instance, snowmaking temperature thresholds of T min < À5°C are also lethal for some invasive, disease-carrying insects such as the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus Skuse; Platonov et al 2008, Rochlin et al 2013, Ogden et al 2014. A Snowmaking Day, where T min < À5°C, could double as an indicator for both potential winter recreational activities and as a Mosquito Kill Day, which is relevant for understanding how changing winters might impact human health.…”

Section: Indicators Of Winter Climate Change and Its Impactsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cold, snowy winters help support iconic wildlife that are also important to tourism, fishing, and hunting, including fishing and hunting for subsistence and other cultural uses by Indigenous peoples (Norton-Smith et al 2016, Penczykowski et al 2017). In addition, sufficiently cold winter air temperatures and deep snowpack can limit the spread of vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease and West Nile virus, and thus are important to human health (Ogden et al 2014, Beard et al 2016.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

Contosta

Casson

Garlick³

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Winter is an understudied but key period for the socioecological systems of northeastern North American forests. A growing awareness of the importance of the winter season to forest ecosystems and surrounding communities has inspired several decades of research, both across the northern forest and at other mid‐ and high‐latitude ecosystems around the globe. Despite these efforts, we lack a synthetic understanding of how winter climate change may impact hydrological and biogeochemical processes and the social and economic activities they support. Here, we take advantage of 100 years of meteorological observations across the northern forest region of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada to develop a suite of indicators that enable a cross‐cutting understanding of (1) how winter temperatures and snow cover have been changing and (2) how these shifts may impact both ecosystems and surrounding human communities. We show that cold and snow covered conditions have generally decreased over the past 100 years. These trends suggest positive outcomes for tree health as related to reduced fine root mortality and nutrient loss associated with winter frost but negative outcomes as related to the northward advancement and proliferation of forest insect pests. In addition to effects on vegetation, reductions in cold temperatures and snow cover are likely to have negative impacts on the ecology of the northern forest through impacts on water, soils, and wildlife. The overall loss of coldness and snow cover may also have negative consequences for logging and forest products, vector‐borne diseases, and human health, recreation, and tourism, and cultural practices, which together represent important social and economic dimensions for the northern forest region. These findings advance our understanding of how our changing winters may transform the socioecological system of a region that has been defined by the contrasting rhythm of the seasons. Our research also identifies a trajectory of change that informs our expectations for the future as the climate continues to warm.

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Recent and projected future climatic suitability of North America for the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus

Cited by 17 publications

References 16 publications

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

Modeling the Environmental Suitability for Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Contiguous United States

Northern range expansion of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus): Analysis of mosquito data from Connecticut, USA

Northern forest winters have lost cold, snowy conditions that are important for ecosystems and human communities

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