Recent advancements in rainfall erosivity assessment in Brazil: A review

Teixeira, David Bruno de Sousa; Cecílio, Roberto Avelino; Moreira, Michel Castro; Pires, Gabrielle Ferreira; Filho, Elpı́dio Inácio Fernandes

doi:10.1016/j.catena.2022.106572

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 122 publications

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“…To clarify the effect of rainfall on soil erosion, several researchers from various countries have studied RE at a local scale. Due to climate warming, RE is increasing in the United States and some countries in Europe [23][24][25]; RE is expected to increase in the northeastern and southern regions of Brazil and decrease in the southeastern, central, and northwestern regions [26,27]. RE in the Alpine region of Australia is expected to increase during 2020-2039 and 2060-2079 by 2% and 8%, respectively [28]; Central Asia has experienced a non-significant increase in RE and higher rainfall is the main factor affecting spatial and temporal variability in RE [29].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Rainfall Erosivity in the Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China

Li,

Wang,

et al. 2023

Agronomy

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The Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China (RHRNEC) is a critical grain production area in China, and soil erosion is a major problem in this region. To determine spatial and temporal changes in rainfall erosivity (RE) in the RHRNEC and generate information useful for soil and water conservation, agricultural management, and ecological protection efforts, a RE index consisting of nine erosivity indices based on normal and extreme precipitation was established. The normal RE index (NREI) comprised annual RE (ARE), wet season RE (WRE), dry season RE (DRE), typical wet-month RE (TWRE), and typical dry-month RE (TDRE), and the extreme RE index set (EREI) comprised maximum one-day RE (RE × 1 day), maximum five consecutive days RE (RE × 5 day), storm RE (RE50), and maximum continuous RE (CRE). ARE, WRE, and TWRE decreased at relative rates of 2.5%, 2.9%, and 4.1%, respectively. By comparison, DRE increased at a non-significant relative rate of 6.3%, and all extreme RE indices decreased at a non-significant rate relative to 1981–2015 mean values. The future trends for all RE indices were predicted to be opposite to historical trends. The future trends and historical trends of all indices exhibited opposite patterns. RE gradually increased from north to south, and WRE, DRE, and all extreme RE indices were significantly negatively correlated with longitude, latitude, and altitude (p < 0.05). ARE, WRE, and TWRE showed increasing trends in the north and south and decreasing trends in the center. The findings are useful for soil and water conservation, especially for agricultural management and ecological protection.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Rainfall Erosivity in the Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China

Li,

Wang,

et al. 2023

Agronomy

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“…Hence, it is necessary to frame the extreme precipitation event for different scales, improving the output from statistical methods used to separate the natural and anthropogenic signals. Also, a link between extreme events and susceptibility to disasters needs to be made, since the exposure to disasters is also subjected to positive trends along the last decades [21], mainly those related to landslides, where several other parameters sum up to the analysis [22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

de Souza,

Crespo,

Silva

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In March 2020, an extreme rainfall in Baixada Santista, Brazil, led to a series of landslides affecting more than 2,800 people and resulting losses exceeding USD 43 million. This attribution study compared extreme rainfall in two distinct runs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-GA6 model: one with all forcings and the other with natural forcings only, considering antecedent conditions and soil moisture (extreme 60-day rainfall, Rx60day) and heavy rainfall (extreme 3-day rainfall, Rx3day) which may trigger landslides. The long-term set-up became 74% more likely, while the short-term trigger was 46% more likely. The anthropogenic contribution to changes in rainfall accounted for 20-42% of the total losses and damages. The greatest economic losses occurred in Guarujá (42%), followed by São Vicente (30%) and Santos (28%). Landslides were responsible for 47% of homes damaged, 85% of homes destroyed, all reported injuries, and 51% of deaths associated with heavy rainfall. Changes in land cover and increased urbanization showed a pronounced increase in urbanized area in Guarujá (107%), São Vicente (61.7%) and Santos (36.9%) and a reduction in farming area. Population growth estimates also indicate higher exposure to extreme rainfall events. The proportion of irregular and/or precarious housing indicates vulnerability, with Guarujá being the municipality with the highest number (34.8%) of dwellings of this type. Our estimates suggest that extreme precipitation events are having shorter return periods due to climate change and increased urbanization and population growth is exposing more people to these events. These findings are especially important for decision-makers in the context of disaster risk reduction and mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

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Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

de Souza,

Crespo,

da Silva

et al. 2024

Nat Hazards

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In March 2020, an extreme rainfall in Baixada Santista, Brazil, led to a series of landslides affecting more than 2800 people and resulting losses exceeding USD 43 million. This attribution study compared extreme rainfall in two large ensembles of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-GA6 model that represented the event with and without the effects of anthropogenic climate change. Antecedent rainfall conditions on two different timescales are considered, namely extreme 60-day rainfall (Rx60day) which relates to the soil moisture conditions and extreme 3-day rainfall (Rx3day) which represents landslide triggering heavy rainfall. In the scenario including both natural and human-induced factors the antecedent 60 day rainfall became 74% more likely, while the short-term trigger was 46% more likely. The anthropogenic contribution to changes in rainfall accounted for 20–42% of the total losses and damages. The greatest economic losses occurred in Guarujá (42%), followed by São Vicente (30%) and Santos (28%). Landslides were responsible for 47% of the homes damaged, 85% of the homes destroyed, all reported injuries, and 51% of the deaths associated with heavy rainfall. Changes in land cover and urbanization showed a pronounced increase in urbanized area in Guarujá (107%), São Vicente (61.7%) and Santos (36.9%) and a reduction in farming area. In recent years, the region has experienced an increase in population growth and a rise in the proportion of irregular and/or precarious housing in high-risk areas. Guarujá has the highest number of such dwellings, accounting for 34.8%. Our estimates suggest that extreme precipitation events are having shorter return periods due to climate change and increased urbanization and population growth is exposing more people to these events. These findings are especially important for decision-makers in the context of disaster risk reduction and mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

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Recent advancements in rainfall erosivity assessment in Brazil: A review

Cited by 6 publications

References 122 publications

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Rainfall Erosivity in the Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Rainfall Erosivity in the Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

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