Rebel Rivalry and the Strategic Nature of Rebel Group Ideology and Demands

Abstract

How does the presence of multiple combatants affect rebel groups’ ideological and demand positioning? Although violent forms of inter-group conflict have been widely studied in the civil war literature, rebel groups’ strategic use of ideology and demands has received scarce scholarly attention. We argue that the pressure of competition forces rebel groups to differentiate themselves ideologically and demand-wise from their rivals to maximize their chances of survival and success. Rebel groups strive to set themselves apart by offering unique products to their supporters and recruits. Thus, we contend that rebel groups are more likely to modify their ideologies and demands from the government in the face of competition from rival groups. We test this theory using novel data collected from rebel group manifestos and public statements. Our findings suggest that groups are more likely to shift their ideology and modify their demands as the number of rival groups increases.

Salient Cleavages, Tactical Cooperation and Violence between Armed Groups in Yemen

“…Armed groups emphasise some dimensions more than others, e.g., Salafist militants may consider religion the most crucial cleavage while pro-government groups might emphasise political ideology. The salience of cleavages varies across actors and over time, and it may be triggered by political elites activating in-group vs out-group dynamics to reinforce and weaponise group identification (Tokdemir et al, 2021).…”

“…In-group cohesion improves as members band together in their collective actions, and further differentiate themselves from outsiders (Oakes, 2002;Turner et al, 1987). Consequently, perceived threats to group identity and status make members more willing to incur fighting costs to reinforce their social influence and weaken their competitors (Tokdemir et al, 2021).…”

Moving Through Conflict: Transit Migration and Rebel Capacity in Mali

“…Furthermore, rebels in competitive environments may shift their ideology to strengthen the group's relevance and chances of success (Tokdemir et al 2021). As Walter (2017, 8) points out, extreme ideologies can offer "significant organizational advantages over more moderate groups, especially in environments with multiple competing rebel groups, weak rule of law, and bad governance."…”

Competition from Within: Ethnicity, Power, and Militant Group Rivalry

“…During such conflicts, extremists are more likely to resort to violence as they can justify attacks on fellow rebels through extremist ideology whereas centrist groups will more often rely on balancing, outbidding, or defecting to manage the rivalry (Hafez 2020). Groups of the same overarching motivation might emphasize differences between themselves and others, to stand out (Tokdemir et al 2021).…”