Reassessing the Effect of Economic Conditions on Support for Democracy: Evidence from the 2009 - 2013 Romanian Election Study Panel

Comşa, Mircea; Tufiș, Claudiu D.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2486083

Cited by 2 publications

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“…Although Romanian universities with greater academic integrity ratings publish more than those with lower integrity ratings, Romanian universities lack the tools and the will to fight plagiarism among faculty (Mungiu-Pippidi 2011). Similarly, students who commit plagiarism in Romania typically face less severe consequences than those in Western European countries (Comsa et al 2007). For decades, Romanian scholars published their work in journals sponsored by their own universities and departments.…”

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confidence: 99%

Patterns and predictors of academic dishonesty in Romanian university students

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confidence: 99%

Patterns and predictors of academic dishonesty in Romanian university students

et al. 2016

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“…The 2009 presidential elections qualify as normal elections: in the first round, President Bǎsescu's vote share (32.4 per cent) matched the PDL's in the 2008 parliamentary elections (32.4 per cent). Vote in the 2009 presidential elections represents a good proxy for party identification (not measured in the available polls), given that the vote in the 2009 presidential elections is highly correlated with partisanship according to the 2009 Romanian Election Study (Comșa et al, 2023); reported vote has been used as a proxy for partisanship in CEE (Walter, 2016); the 2009 presidential elections took place less than 6 months before the austerity announcement. 13.…”

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confidence: 99%

The electoral risks of austerity

Ciobanu

2023

European J Political Res

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Does austerity influence incumbent support? Existing studies struggle with conceptualizing the evolution of austerity's impact over time, estimating a causal effect, and analysing the reactions of different voters. This study theorizes that the effect of austerity on electoral preferences is not immediate, but gradual, as voters find out about the measures' consequences via the media. It leverages a survey in the field at the time of the austerity announcement in Romania in 2010, additional survey data collected immediately after this event and comprehensive daily media coverage to show that austerity measures do not have an immediate impact on incumbent support, anticipated turnout and expressing a vote preference. Instead, there is a gradual effect that is associated with increased media attention to budgetary cuts. This natural experiment allows the estimation of the immediate causal effect of austerity on electoral intentions. Difference‐in‐differences (DID) models show that the announcement triggered a massive loss of support for the incumbent among those who had voted for the party in power only a few months before. Austerity also led to the demobilization of the governing party's supporters. There is no evidence that those most directly affected by the spending cuts are more likely to punish the incumbent party.

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Reassessing the Effect of Economic Conditions on Support for Democracy: Evidence from the 2009 - 2013 Romanian Election Study Panel

Cited by 2 publications

References 60 publications

Patterns and predictors of academic dishonesty in Romanian university students

Patterns and predictors of academic dishonesty in Romanian university students

The electoral risks of austerity

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