The electoral risks of austerity

Ciobanu, Costin

doi:10.1111/1475-6765.12604

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…In times of crisis, many left-wing parties have managed to retain support while adhering to their ideology. Following the 2008 economic crisis, the commonly adopted right-wing policy of austerity became widely unpopular as its unfavorable effects unfolded, resulting in long-term dissatisfaction among voters (Ciobanu 2024). Such crises can enhance the appeal of an ideology emphasizing redistribution and welfare.…”

Section: Ideological Asymmetry In Ideological Alignment Of Beliefsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cely

2024

Preprint

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This study delves into the ideological alignment of partisans, a phenomenon of some beneficial and multiple troubling consequences within European political landscapes. I hypothesize a substantial asymmetry in ideological alignment between partisans on the left and right ends of the political spectrum, with profound implications for our understanding of political polarization and party strategies across Europe. Utilizing conventional methods and innovative belief network modeling, I analyze data from the fourth and eighth waves of the European Social Survey (2008, 2016), supplemented by the Chapel Hill Expert Survey and Manifesto Project, covering 15 European countries, 131 political parties, and 23,586 partisans, to test this hypothesis. My findings reveal that supporters of new left parties exhibit a more consistent and coherent set of beliefs compared to their right-wing counterparts. However, the study also uncovers the limits of this asymmetry in a significant shift in ideological alignment on sociocultural issues on the right, indicating the emergence of a deeper, broader ideological conflict. Furthermore, my analysis demonstrates the limited impact of strategies like position blurring and programmatic nicheness, showing only a small effect on ideological alignment in economic matters. These insights highlight the propensity of new left supporters for some worrisome consequences of high belief homogeneity, such as echo chambers and lack of cross-cutting ties, and stress the pivotal role of both the new left and the radical right in the ideological conflict across Europe.

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Section: Ideological Asymmetry In Ideological Alignment Of Beliefsmentioning

confidence: 99%

No Conservative View Left

Cely

2024

Preprint

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“…IMF conditions always include policies that are politically contested. Fiscal adjustment programs, which are a central feature of most IMF programs, typically include spending cuts in major areas of the public budget, such as public pensions, unemployment benefits, public employment, or health care, and these cuts are generally unpopular among many voters (Hübscher et al, 2021(Hübscher et al, , 2023aBaccini & Sattler, Forthcoming;Bremer et al, 2020;Alonso & Ruiz-Rufino, 2020;Ciobanu, 2023). The IMF helps to override the political resistance against fiscal adjustment and tips the political balance in favor of pro-austerity voices.…”

Section: The Imf and National Sovereigntymentioning

confidence: 99%

Voters and the IMF: Experimental Evidence From European Crisis Countries

Hübscher,

Sattler,

Wagner

2023

Comparative Political Studies

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IMF interventions are often associated with rising political discontent in countries where the Fund intervenes. Studies examining this relationship, however, face the challenge of disentangling the impact of the IMF from the impact of the crisis that triggered the intervention. To address this challenge, we conduct survey experiments in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain and directly assess how voters evaluate the costs and benefits of an IMF intervention. We find that voters believe that the crisis will more likely be solved when the IMF intervenes, but they are also critical of the corresponding loss of national sovereignty. Because the former consideration, on average, dominates their assessment, IMF interventions increase the support of voters for unpopular economic policies. Nonetheless, cross-country differences suggest that continued public support for intervention hinges on the IMF’s ability to deliver on its promise to help resolve the crisis.

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What Can Depolarize the Polarizers? Affective Polarization for Party Activists Before and After Elections

Ciobanu,

Sandu

2024

Comparative Political Studies

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Although affective polarization threatens democracies, little is known about how to reduce it among one of polarization’s main agents: party activists. The challenge stems from the difficulty of studying activists longitudinally and in a real-world setting. To address these issues, we study whether contact between activists acting as party delegates in the precincts on election day reduces polarization, compared to activists who have other election day responsibilities. We leverage a pre-registered study of party activists in a European democracy using a difference-in-differences framework. We employ an 8300-response three-wave panel of members of a new party, collected immediately before and after the 2020 Romanian general elections. We demonstrate that party activists are affectively polarized and are mostly polarized against the out-party elites and out-party itself. Although election-day contact with out-party peers does not substantially and robustly reduce partisan animus, all activists depolarize immediately after elections and effects persist two months later.

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The electoral risks of austerity

Cited by 3 publications

References 51 publications

No Conservative View Left

No Conservative View Left

Voters and the IMF: Experimental Evidence From European Crisis Countries

What Can Depolarize the Polarizers? Affective Polarization for Party Activists Before and After Elections

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