Real-Time Guidance Provided by NOAA's Hurricane Research Division to Forecasters during Emily of 1993

Thirty Years of Tropical Cyclone Research With the Noaa P-3 Aircraft

“…Whereas the P-3s initially provided TC location and intensity information, the gradual increase in the amount of aircraft data transmitted to the ground led to wider support of operations (Burpee et al 1994). Improvements to telecommunications will allow for increases in the type and density of transmitted data, including upper-ocean temperature profiles and Doppler radar wind observations for assimilation into operational numerical models.…”

Accuracy of United States Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecasts in the Atlantic Basin (1976–2000)

“…The rawinsonde network may have deteriorated in the Caribbean and Central America during the past 25 years but successful recent National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Field Program adaptive observing experiments have led to an operational program of synoptic surveillance of the environment surrounding tropical cyclones. Burpee et al (1996) and Aberson and Franklin (1999) documented 16%-30% improvement in 12-60-h forecasts for storms within 72 h of potential landfall when synoptic dropwindsonde observations were assimilated into the models. Hence, a sampling strategy of enhanced and targeted observations, and improvements in assimilation of these data into numerical models, in storms close to the North American network may lead to improved landfall forecasts.…”

Surface Wind Analyses and Storm-Surge Effects of Hurricane Emily on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

“…At 1400 hr UTC on 31 August (Figure 4), the eye of Emily was approximately 130 miles from Cape Hatteras, with the dominant motion toward the north-northwest. Maximum surface winds were approximately 86 knots (Burpee et al 1994). At the time, the dominant wind direction over Pamlico Sound was from the east-northeast at approximately 40 knots.…”