Real challenges behind the EU–China PV trade dispute settlement

Voituriez, Tancrède; Wang, Xin

doi:10.1080/14693062.2015.1009868

Cited by 30 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…However, whether trade improves or worsens environmental quality depends on the level of progress in the economy, regulation, and technological development [7][8][9] , which varies along global supply chains. In part as a reaction to perceived disadvantages caused by trade of certain goods and services, the past years have seen a number of attempts to restrict trade activities [10][11][12][13] . Yet, the grand question of whether trade liberalization or restriction leads to a better global environment remains unclear.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

Lin

Chen

et al. 2019

Nat Commun

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In a globalized economy, production of goods can be disrupted by trade disputes. Yet the resulting impacts on carbon dioxide emissions and ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) related premature mortality are unclear. Here we show that in contrast to a free trade world, with the emission intensity in each sector unchanged, an extremely anti-trade scenario with current tariffs plus an additional 25% tariff on each traded product would reduce the global export volume by 32.5%, gross domestic product by 9.0%, carbon dioxide by 6.3%, and PM2.5-related mortality by 4.1%. The respective impacts would be substantial for the United States, Western Europe and China. A freer trade scenario would increase global carbon dioxide emission and air pollution due to higher levels of production, especially in developing regions with relatively high emission intensities. Global collaborative actions to reduce emission intensities in developing regions could help achieve an economic-environmental win-win state through globalization.

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confidence: 99%

Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

Lin

Chen

et al. 2019

Nat Commun

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“…Trade disputes relating to climate policy have instead been concerned with shielding infant climate industries, as illustrated by the EU versus China Solar PV dispute where China was accused of dumping low-cost solar panels on the market (Voituriez & Wang, 2015).…”

Section: Negotiating Issues Relevant To Eiismentioning

confidence: 99%

Global climate policy and deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries

2016

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If we are to limit global warming to 2 8C, all sectors in all countries must reduce their emissions of GHGs to zero not later than 2060-2080. Zero-emission options have been less explored and are less developed in the energy-intensive basic materials industries than in other sectors. Current climate policies have not yet motivated major efforts to decarbonize this sector, and it has been largely protected from climate policy due to the perceived risks of carbon leakage and a focus on short-term reduction targets to 2020. We argue that the future global climate policy regime must develop along three interlinked and strategic lines to facilitate a deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries. First, the principle of common but differentiated responsibility must be reinterpreted to allow for a dialogue on fairness and the right to development in relation to industry. Second, a greater focus on the development, deployment and transfer of technology in this sector is called for. Third, the potential conflicts between current free trade regimes and motivated industrial policies for deep decarbonization must be resolved. One way forward is to revisit the idea of sectoral approaches with a broader scope, including not only emission reductions, but recognizing the full complexity of low-carbon transitions in energy-intensive industries. A new approach could engage industrial stakeholders, support technology research, development and demonstration and facilitate deployment through reducing the risk for investors. The Paris Agreement allows the idea of sectoral approaches to be revisited in the interests of reaching our common climate goals. Policy relevance Deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries will be necessary to meet the 2 8C target. This requires major innovation efforts over a long period. Energy-intensive industries face unique challenges from both innovation and technical perspectives due to the large scale of facilities, the character of their global markets and the potentially high mitigation costs. This article addresses these challenges and discusses ways in which the global climate policy framework should be developed after the Paris Agreement to better support transformative change in the energy-intensive industries.

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“…However, PV modules have become a commodity with little product differentiation. Module manufacturers are therefore price-takers with little ability to impact margin, 36,37 and we see little practical opportunity to increase growth rate by increasing margins.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysis Of Cost and Growth Model Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economically sustainable scaling of photovoltaics to meet climate targets

Wilson¹,

Needleman²,

Poindexter³

et al. 2017

2017 IEEE 44th Photovoltaic Specialist Conference (PVSC)

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To meet climate targets, power generation capacity from photovoltaics (PV) in 2030 will have to be much greater than is predicted from either steady state growth using today's manufacturing capacity or industry roadmaps. Analysis of whether current technology can scale, in an economically sustainable way, to sufficient levels to meet these targets has not yet been undertaken, nor have tools to perform this analysis been presented. Here, we use bottom-up cost modeling to predict cumulative capacity as a function of technological and economic variables. We find that today's technology falls short in two ways: profits are too small relative to upfront factory costs to grow manufacturing capacity rapidly enough to meet climate targets, and costs are too high to generate enough demand to meet climate targets. We show that decreasing the capital intensity (capex) of PV manufacturing to increase manufacturing capacity and effectively reducing cost (e.g., through higher efficiency) to increase demand are the most effective and least risky ways to address these barriers to scale. We also assess the effects of variations in demand due to hard-to-predict factors, like public policy, on the necessary reductions in cost. Finally, we review examples of redundant technology pathways for crystalline silicon PV to achieve the necessary innovations in capex, performance, and price. Broader context To reduce CO 2 emissions enough over the next fifteen years and avoid the worst effects of climate change will require dramatic increases in the deployment of renewable energy, photovoltaics (PV) in particular. Climate action plans call for 2-10 terawatts (TW) of PV by 2030. Current manufacturing capacity could supply enough for 1 TW of cumulative installations at the end of this period, implying that growth in manufacturing capacity is necessary. Industry roadmaps project up to 2.6 TW but largely fail to assess whether these targets are economically feasible with today's PV module technology. Addressing the question of what technological innovations, if any, would enable rapid manufacturing scale-up requires a conceptual advance in modeling methodology. We address this challenge by coupling three industry-validated models: a bottom-up cost model, an economically sustainable growth-rate calculator, and a constraining demand curve. This approach enables us to determine the sensitivity of PV industry growth to specific technological and economic variables, considering both their effect on the ratio of up-front factory costs to revenue and demand as a function of PV module price. Shifting the demand curve enables us to consider the effects of different policy decisions, like a carbon tax or deployment subsidies.

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Real challenges behind the EU–China PV trade dispute settlement

Cited by 30 publications

References 4 publications

Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

Global climate policy and deep decarbonization of energy-intensive industries

Economically sustainable scaling of photovoltaics to meet climate targets

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