Re-entry survival analysis and ground risk assessment of space debris considering by-products generation

Park, Seong-Hyeon; Navarro-Laboulais, J.; Leyland, Pénélope; Mischler, S.

doi:10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.09.034

“…Even the Falcon 9 reusable first stage rocket only reserves ∼6% of total fuel mass for controlled re‐entry and landing (Kim et al., 2021 ). Re‐entry heating NO x emissions from returning crewed spacecraft and rocket components should be parameterized using re‐entry velocity, trajectory, surface area and mass (Park et al., 2021 ), but only mass is readily available. We determine NO x emissions equivalent to 17.5% of the mass of each returning reusable component.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We model complete vapourization of rocket stages discarded above 50 km during launch, controlled payload re‐entries and unplanned re‐entry of space debris, resulting in NO x emissions equivalent to 100% of the mass of the re‐entering object. Additional organic and inorganic pollutants form due to the complex range of chemical matrices of rocket propellants and parts and extreme temperatures during both launch and re‐entry (Park et al., 2021 ), but there are only reported emission factors for the most common air pollutants (chlorine, BC, H 2 O, Al 2 O 3 and NO x ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate

Ryan

¹

,

Marais

²

,

Balhatchet

³

et al. 2022

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The space industry is one of the world's fastest growing sectors. Global revenue generated from this industry is forecast to grow from 350 million USD in 2019 to more than 1 trillion USD by 2040 (Morgan Stanley, 2020). This demand stems from significantly reduced launch costs driven by commercialization (Jones, 2018), increased reliance on satellite technologies for global positioning systems, surveillance and broadband internet (Alvino et al., 2019;Dolgopolov et al., 2018;George, 2019), and postulated space resource extraction (Hein et al., 2020) and militarization (Quintana, 2017). To meet growing demand, new spaceports and launch vehicle companies are being established in historically aeronautically active nations such as the US and Russia, and in nations with emerging space sectors such as China and India (Patel, 2019;Roberts, 2019). In 2021, commercial space flights by Virgin Galactic (Gorman, 2021), Blue Origin (Johnson, 2021), and SpaceX (Wattles, 2021) demonstrated that space tourism is plausible, though the scale of this nascent industry is uncertain. Such rapid growth demands detailed understanding of the potential impact on the protective stratospheric ozone (O 3 ) layer and climate.

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“…To mitigate this threat, recent attention has been paid to reducing the risk and controlling space debris and space junk in orbit (Maclay & McKnight, 2021;Madi & Sokolova, 2020;Unfried & Eder, 2021). Further, recent studies aim to quantify and provide a means for accurately communicating risks and hazards of space debris on the ground (Park et al, 2021). Byers et al (2022) study on abandoned rocket bodies reflects the growing likelihood of human casualty in the near future and the disproportionate risk imposed upon populations in the Global South which tend to receive more falling debris than the Global North.…”

Section: Theoretical Framework and Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Emergency management and the final frontier: Preparing local communities for falling space debris

Louis-Charles

¹

,

Kalokoh

²

,

Torres

³

et al. 2023

Risk Hazard & Crisis Pub Pol

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Global dependence on satellite technologies, along with expanding space exploration, and commercial space travel have made rocket launches routine modern‐day events. As a result, there is an increasing probability of civilian casualty from rocket launch anomalies, or from falling space debris already in orbit. This study provides an empirical analysis of local emergency management publicly available guidelines for the risks associated with human‐made space hazards, natural space hazards, and unknown space hazards. A multicase approach is utilized with a document analysis of 391 emergency management documents provided by 512 local jurisdictions across the states of California, Florida, Texas, and Virginia. Descriptive statistics and a QGIS vector spatial analysis is conducted to identify high risk counties in close proximity to rocket launch sites. A logit regression model informs us on the relationship between a county containing a rocket launch site or being in close proximity to a launch site and their likelihood of including falling space hazards in their emergency management documents. A significant number of documents mention falling aircrafts, missiles from tornadoes and weapons of mass destruction. Rocket launch anomalies and falling space debris remain outside the scope or imaginability of local emergency management plans.

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“…Even the Falcon 9 reusable first stage rocket only reserves ∼6% of total fuel mass for controlled re-entry and landing (Kim et al, 2021). Re-entry heating NO x emissions from returning crewed spacecraft and rocket components should be parameterized using re-entry velocity, trajectory, surface area and mass (Park et al, 2021), but only mass is readily available. We determine NO x emissions equivalent to 17.5% of the mass of each returning reusable component.…”

Section: Emission Inventory Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We model complete vapourization of rocket stages discarded above 50 km during launch, controlled payload re-entries and unplanned re-entry of space debris, resulting in NO x emissions equivalent to 100% of the mass of the re-entering object. Additional organic and inorganic pollutants form due to the complex range of chemical matrices of rocket propellants and parts and extreme temperatures during both launch and re-entry (Park et al, 2021), but there are only reported emission factors for the most common air pollutants (chlo rine, BC, H 2 O, Al 2 O 3 and NO x ).…”

Section: Emission Inventory Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate

Ryan

¹

,

Marais

²

,

Balhatchet

³

et al. 2022

Preprint

1

0

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The space industry is one of the world's fastest growing sectors. Global revenue generated from this industry is forecast to grow from 350 million USD in 2019 to more than 1 trillion USD by 2040 (Morgan Stanley, 2020). This demand stems from significantly reduced launch costs driven by commercialization (Jones, 2018), increased reliance on satellite technologies for global positioning systems, surveillance and broadband internet (Alvino et al., 2019;Dolgopolov et al., 2018;George, 2019), and postulated space resource extraction (Hein et al., 2020) and militarization (Quintana, 2017). To meet growing demand, new spaceports and launch vehicle companies are being established in historically aeronautically active nations such as the US and Russia, and in nations with emerging space sectors such as China and India (Patel, 2019;Roberts, 2019). In 2021, commercial space flights by Virgin Galactic (Gorman, 2021), Blue Origin (Johnson, 2021), and SpaceX (Wattles, 2021) demonstrated that space tourism is plausible, though the scale of this nascent industry is uncertain. Such rapid growth demands detailed understanding of the potential impact on the protective stratospheric ozone (O 3 ) layer and climate.

show abstract

Re-entry survival analysis and ground risk assessment of space debris considering by-products generation

Cited by 28 publications

References 21 publications

Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate

Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate

Emergency management and the final frontier: Preparing local communities for falling space debris

Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate

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