Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollutant Emissions on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate

Abstract

The space industry is one of the world's fastest growing sectors. Global revenue generated from this industry is forecast to grow from 350 million USD in 2019 to more than 1 trillion USD by 2040 (Morgan Stanley, 2020). This demand stems from significantly reduced launch costs driven by commercialization (Jones, 2018), increased reliance on satellite technologies for global positioning systems, surveillance and broadband internet (Alvino et al., 2019;Dolgopolov et al., 2018;George, 2019), and postulated space resource extraction (Hein et al., 2020) and militarization (Quintana, 2017). To meet growing demand, new spaceports and launch vehicle companies are being established in historically aeronautically active nations such as the US and Russia, and in nations with emerging space sectors such as China and India (Patel, 2019;Roberts, 2019). In 2021, commercial space flights by Virgin Galactic (Gorman, 2021), Blue Origin (Johnson, 2021), and SpaceX (Wattles, 2021) demonstrated that space tourism is plausible, though the scale of this nascent industry is uncertain. Such rapid growth demands detailed understanding of the potential impact on the protective stratospheric ozone (O 3 ) layer and climate.

Pollution Effects and Management of Orbital Space Debris

“…35 It has been reported that nearly 95% of the total amount of NOx released is due to re-entry, whereas nearly 78−79% of the total amount of H 2 O and black carbon and nearly 68−69% of the total amount of chlorine and Al 2 O 3 are emitted in the atmosphere from the process of launching rockets to space. 35 This is shown to have a direct negative effect on climate change due to global warming and ozone layer depletion. 44 Another study analyzed the atmospheric pollution in the stratosphere specifically, at which it was concluded that the pollutants emitted due to spacecraft incineration in the atmosphere results from the vaporization of the metals present in spacecraft components; these metal particles are believed to integrate with the meteoric dust naturally present in the various atmospheric layers.…”

“…45 Table 1 summarizes the main pollutants emitted along with their sources of emission, probable fates, and associated effects. Figure 1 below provides a visual mapping of these pollutants from previous studies 6,10,11,16,23,31,33,[35][36][37][38][41][42][43][44]53 while highlighting their trajectory and circulation path in depth.…”

“…37 There are four main types of fuel systems or sources: solid rocket motors (SRMs), liquid rocket engines (LREs), hybrid rocket engines (HREs), and nuclear power sources (NPSs). 6,10,35,38 Each of them is accompanied by a specific compatible type of fuel, and the main types of fuels include hypergolic fuels, solid fuels, kerosene, and cryogenic fuels (liquid hydrogen). 35 In addition to the fuel system, the propulsion system of most satellites consists of a supporting oxidizer.…”

“…38 Several space studies confirm that the amount of O 3 degradation due to space launches is insignificant, especially when compared to the pollution levels attributed to CFCs and ozone-depleting substances released on Earth. 6,35 Out of all the pollutants described previously, black carbon is ranked as the worst, as it can contribute to global warming up to 500 times the warming effect of all the other pollutants emitted from spacecraft rockets. 35 This is followed by alumina and radicals.…”

Space sustainability isn’t just about space debris: On the atmospheric impact of space launches

“…High altitude cloud formation and their radio interference and potential mitigation solutions also remain open areas of research [4,24]. Furthermore, little research has been published on the environmental consequences of rocket disposal, including the melting of upper rocket stages as they reenter the atmosphere from space [39]. These metal particles may be warming or cooling the atmosphere and consequently a form of geoengineering with poorly understood global effects.…”