Rapid Rise in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes From 1987 to 1996

Burke, J. P.; Williams, Ken; Gaskill, Sarah J.; Hazuda, Helen P.; Haffner, Steven M.; Stern, Michael P.

doi:10.1001/archinte.159.13.1450

Cited by 262 publications

(197 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(28 reference statements)

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“…Also assuming continuation of current rates, we observe a starting prevalence of diabetes in adults 25 years or over of 7.6% in 2000 increasing to 11.4% in 2025. The lower prevalence rates reported by Narayan et al [3,4] probably reflects the combination of diagnosing diabetes via self-reporting, and including the population aged under 25 years, in whom diabetes is rare [20,21]. Here, we extend previous analyses, presenting the first conclusions from projections of trends in diabetes incidence and all-cause mortality and in population changes over time.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 52%

Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

et al. 2008

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Aims/hypothesis With incidence rates for diabetes increasing rapidly worldwide, estimates of the magnitude of the impact on population health are required. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes, the number of years lived free of, and the number of years lived with diabetes for the Australian adult population from the year 2000, and to project prevalence of diabetes to the year 2025. Methods Multi-state life-tables were constructed to simulate the progress of a cohort of 25-year-old Australians. National mortality rates were combined with incidence rates of diabetes and the RR of mortality in people with diabetes derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (a national, population-based study of 11,247 adults aged ≥25 years).Results If the rates of mortality and diabetes incidence observed over the period 2000-2005 continue, 38.0% (95% uncertainty interval 36.6-38.9) of 25-year-olds would be expected to develop diabetes at some time throughout their life. On average, a 25-year-old Australian will live a further 56 years, 48 of these free of diabetes. On average, a 45-year-old person with diabetes can expect to live 6 years less than a person free of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2000 to 11.4% by 2025. Conclusions/interpretation If we maintain current diabetes incidence rates, more than a third of individuals will develop diabetes within their lifetime and in Australia there will an additional 1 million cases of diabetes by the year 2025.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 52%

Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

et al. 2008

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“…As the incidence of diabetes continues to rise and increasingly affects individuals of all ages, including young adults and children, women of childbearing age are at increased risk of diabetes during pregnancy (1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7). The lifetime risk of diabetes among the cohort of individuals born in the United States in 2000 was estimated to be 33% in males and 39% in females based on information obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) conducted 1984-2000(8).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Increasing Prevalence of Diabetes in Pregnancy

Hunt

Schuller

2007

Obstetrics and Gynecology Clinics of North America

420

272

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“…Diagnosed diabetes rates can only ever be a proxy for the true incidence rate. Nevertheless, evidence is accumulating that we are seeing a widespread increase in incidence [5]. For example, an increase of 41% in self-reported diabetes over 7 years in the USA was noted (although the diagnoses were retrospective) [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in a Scottish population: effect of increasing incidence or decreasing mortality?

et al. 2007

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Aims/hypothesis We examined incidence, prevalence and mortality from type 2 diabetes mellitus in a Scottish population over 12 years, and evaluated the effects on prevalence of increasing incidence and decreasing mortality. Materials and methods We used a diabetes clinical information system in Tayside (population 387,908), Scotland, to identify new cases of type 2 diabetes between 1993 and 2004 and to calculate incidence rates and mid-year prevalence. We defined mortality rates as the number of deaths of diabetic people divided by mid-year prevalence. We used logistic and Poisson regression to analyse trends. We then modelled the increase in prevalence for each year for three scenarios, based on whether mortality or incidence rates remained unchanged from 1993. Results There was a doubling in incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Tayside over the 12 years, with statistically significant increasing trends of 6.3 and 6.7% per year respectively. The mortality rate decreased. If incidence and mortality had remained at 1993 levels, there would have been an increase in prevalence of 855 per 100,000 in 2003, accounting for 60.1% of the actual increase of 1,423 per 100,000. If there had been no mortality decrease, prevalence in 2003 would have been very similar to the actual prevalence observed. Conclusions/interpretation Decreasing mortality rates in Tayside had less effect on the increase in prevalence than did increasing incidence. Even if incidence and mortality remain unchanged, prevalence will increase by over 20% in the next decade.

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Rapid Rise in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes From 1987 to 1996

Cited by 262 publications

References 27 publications

Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

The Increasing Prevalence of Diabetes in Pregnancy

Increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes in a Scottish population: effect of increasing incidence or decreasing mortality?

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