Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes

Abstract

Aims/hypothesis With incidence rates for diabetes increasing rapidly worldwide, estimates of the magnitude of the impact on population health are required. We aimed to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes, the number of years lived free of, and the number of years lived with diabetes for the Australian adult population from the year 2000, and to project prevalence of diabetes to the year 2025. Methods Multi-state life-tables were constructed to simulate the progress of a cohort of 25-year-old Australians. National mortality rates were combined with incidence rates of diabetes and the RR of mortality in people with diabetes derived from the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study (a national, population-based study of 11,247 adults aged ≥25 years).Results If the rates of mortality and diabetes incidence observed over the period 2000-2005 continue, 38.0% (95% uncertainty interval 36.6-38.9) of 25-year-olds would be expected to develop diabetes at some time throughout their life. On average, a 25-year-old Australian will live a further 56 years, 48 of these free of diabetes. On average, a 45-year-old person with diabetes can expect to live 6 years less than a person free of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise from 7.6% in 2000 to 11.4% by 2025. Conclusions/interpretation If we maintain current diabetes incidence rates, more than a third of individuals will develop diabetes within their lifetime and in Australia there will an additional 1 million cases of diabetes by the year 2025.

Lifetime risk of diabetes among First Nations and non–First Nations people

“…9 However, the methodologic differences across these studies hinder direct comparison of the estimates with our results. In the US study, Narayan and associates 11 used incidence rates and mortality derived from different sources and a Markov chain model to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes.…”

“…Life-table modelling techniques use incidence and mortality data to estimate the lifetime risk of diabetes. This important assessment of the disease burden of diabetes has been undertaken in a few studies, [9][10][11] but it has not been done in Canada. The need for such estimates is particularly relevant given the higher prevalence of diabetes among First Nations people in Canada.…”

The conjunctival bacterial pattern of diabetics undergoing cataract surgery

“…First, the proportion of elderly patients in this study is bigger than that in the above mentioned Spanish studies, and an increase in age was associated with the risk of being diabetic everywhere. [4][5][6][7]24,26 Second, there could be a concentration of diabetic patients with a poor health status in a tertiary referral hospital as ours. Third, the predicted worldwide tendency of an increasingly serious diabetes epidemic could have already been affecting our country's diabetes prevalence.…”

“…[1][2][3] In developed countries, there is the threat of an epidemic growth of diabetes prevalence, [4][5][6] in particular in the elderly; only in the US estimates, 4 about 25% of people over 60 years of age will be diabetic (22.6 million people) in the year 2031. In fact, 21.6% of adults older than 65 years had diabetes in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2002.…”

Az inkretintengelyen ható antidiabetikumokkal végzett cardiovascularis biztonságossági tanulmányok eddigi tapasztalatai

“…A gyógyszeripar érdeklődése töretlen, tevékenységük igen eredményes. A cukorbetegek száma egyelőre világméretekben folyamatosan emelkedik [1], amiből adódik, hogy egy sikeres gyógyszerfej-lesztés eredményeként előállított új készítmény biztos piacra számíthat.…”