Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique

Berchum, Erik C. van; Ledden, Mathijs van; Timmermans, Jos; Kwakkel, Jan H.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

doi:10.5194/nhess-20-2633-2020

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(27 reference statements)

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“…• In the Netherlands, on the deltas of the Rhine, the Meuse and the Scheldt, an integrated strategy for multiple issues (including flood protection, water resource management, and sanitation), defined at the national level, is implemented locally (Klijn et al, 2015;Bloemen al., 2018); • In Dublin, Ireland, the development of the city's resilience to floods is undertaken on the basis of a diagnosis considering the interrelationships of technical networks and the impact of their malfunctions on vital services (Lhomme et al, 2021); • In a neighbourhood in Beira, Mozambique, an action programme integrates civil engineering operations, nature-based solutions, and warning and evacuation measures (Van Berchum et al, 2020).…”

Section: Adaptation Methods (Comprehensive Approach)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Methodological Approaches for Strengthening the Resilience of Coastal Flood Protection System

2022

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Coastlines are subject to multiple developments related to land use planning and the effects of climate change. These developments generally lead to an increase in the risk of coastal flooding. This article focuses on systems to protect against this hazard, and presents a bibliographical analysis on methods and operational tools to strengthen their resilience. This analysis is carried out by considering that a system of protection is a component of the territory to which it provides protection and that it is therefore necessary to study in depth the relations between this system and the various components of the territory (the natural environment, the built environment and the social and institutional environment). Based on this hypothesis, the concepts of risk and resilience applied to floods are specified and the protection and adaptation strategies commonly used in recent decades are described. This retrospective on concepts and strategies leads us to structure the state-of-the-art analysis on methods and operational tools in relation to two issues: 1) understanding risks; 2) adapting and transforming protection systems. In each case, the use of the concept of resilience implies a clear distinction between systemic and analytical approaches. Finally, this bibliographical analysis reveals the need to revise the protection system concept in order to promote the integration of these systems in the territories. Accordingly, new methodological developments could be considered using ecosystem and socio-economic approaches.

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Section: Adaptation Methods (Comprehensive Approach)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Methodological Approaches for Strengthening the Resilience of Coastal Flood Protection System

2022

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“…Another study (van Berchum et al, 2019) develops a simplified model of the Houston Galveston Bay region to identify trade-offs arising from the interactions associated with various and sometimes overlapping strategies. Maybe closest to the island City On a Wedge model (used in this study and initially described in Ceres et al, 2019) is the Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation and Screening (FLORES) model (van Berchum et al, 2020). FLORES adopts a reduced complexity approach to simplify the analysis of a wide range of potential future storm surge scenarios (van Berchum et al, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Maybe closest to the island City On a Wedge model (used in this study and initially described in Ceres et al, 2019) is the Flood Risk Reduction Evaluation and Screening (FLORES) model (van Berchum et al, 2020). FLORES adopts a reduced complexity approach to simplify the analysis of a wide range of potential future storm surge scenarios (van Berchum et al, 2020). The FLORES model evaluates multiple and potentially interdependent risk mitigation strategies at a spatial resolution that resolves different terrain types and flooding modes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade‐offs and synergies in managing coastal flood risk: A case study for New York City

Ceres

Forest

Keller

2021

J Flood Risk Management

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Decisions on how to manage future flood risks are frequently informed by both sophisticated and computationally expensive models. This complexity often limits the representation of uncertainties and the consideration of strategies.Here we use an intermediate complexity model framework that enables us to analyze a richer set of strategies, a wider range of objectives, and greater levels of uncertainty than are typically considered by more sophisticated and computationally expensive models. We find that allowing for more combinations of risk mitigation strategies can help expand the solution set, help explain synergies and trade-offs, and point to strategies that can improve outcomes.

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“…Moreover, the poor network for ocean observation and the constant discontinuity in the available time series compromises its use for the model validation, as well as statistical analysis to identify patterns in meteorological events and their influence on ocean circulation [9,28,29]. This limitation in oceanographic data availability is typical in developing countries and has been widely reported in the literature [30][31][32]. Despite this limitation for numerical modeling implementation, the tightly coupled ADCIRC+SWAN hydrodynamic and phase-averaged wave models [33] have been recently employed in different poorly monitored areas to simulate water levels and waves during extreme events for coastal flooding studies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrodynamic and Waves Response during Storm Surges on the Southern Brazilian Coast: A Hindcast Study

Lima

Khalid

Miesse

et al. 2020

Water

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The Southern Brazilian Coast is highly susceptible to storm surges that often lead to coastal flooding and erosive processes, significantly impacting coastal communities. In addition, climate change is expected to result in expressive increases in wave heights due to more intense and frequent storms, which, in conjunction with sea-level rise (SLR), has the potential to exacerbate the impact of storm surges on coastal communities. The ability to predict and simulate such events provides a powerful tool for coastal risk reduction and adaptation. In this context, this study aims to investigate how accurately storm surge events can be simulated in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean employing the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN hydrodynamic and phase-averaged wave numerical modeling framework given the significant data scarcity constraints of the region. The model’s total water level (TWL) and significant wave height (Hs) outputs, driven by different sources of meteorological forcing, i.e., the Fifth Generation of ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA 5), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Global Forecast System (GFS), were validated for three recent storm events that affected the coast (2016, 2017, and 2019). In order to assess the potentially increasing storm surge impacts due to sea-level rise, a case study was implemented to locally evaluate the modeling approach using the most accurate model setup for two 2100 SLR projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Despite a TWL underestimation in all sets of simulations, the CFSv2 model stood out as the most consistent meteorological forcing for the hindcasting of the storm surge and waves in the numerical model, with an RMSE range varying from 0.19 m to 0.37 m, and an RMSE of 0.56 m for Hs during the most significant event. ERA5 was highlighted as the second most accurate meteorological forcing, while adequately simulating the peak timings. The SLR study case demonstrated a possible increase of up to 82% in the TWL during the same event. Despite the limitations imposed by the lack of continuous and densely distributed observational data, as well as up to date topobathymetric datasets, the proposed framework was capable of expanding TWL and Hs information, previously available for a handful of gauge stations, to a spatially distributed and temporally unlimited scale. This more comprehensive understanding of such extreme events represents valuable knowledge for the potential implementation of more adequate coastal management and engineering practices for the Brazilian coastal zone, especially under changing climate conditions.

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Rapid flood risk screening model for compound flood events in Beira, Mozambique

Cited by 17 publications

References 32 publications

Exploring Methodological Approaches for Strengthening the Resilience of Coastal Flood Protection System

Exploring Methodological Approaches for Strengthening the Resilience of Coastal Flood Protection System

Trade‐offs and synergies in managing coastal flood risk: A case study for New York City

Hydrodynamic and Waves Response during Storm Surges on the Southern Brazilian Coast: A Hindcast Study

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