The Southern Brazilian Coast is highly susceptible to storm surges that often lead to coastal flooding and erosive processes, significantly impacting coastal communities. In addition, climate change is expected to result in expressive increases in wave heights due to more intense and frequent storms, which, in conjunction with sea-level rise (SLR), has the potential to exacerbate the impact of storm surges on coastal communities. The ability to predict and simulate such events provides a powerful tool for coastal risk reduction and adaptation. In this context, this study aims to investigate how accurately storm surge events can be simulated in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean employing the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN hydrodynamic and phase-averaged wave numerical modeling framework given the significant data scarcity constraints of the region. The model’s total water level (TWL) and significant wave height (Hs) outputs, driven by different sources of meteorological forcing, i.e., the Fifth Generation of ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA 5), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Global Forecast System (GFS), were validated for three recent storm events that affected the coast (2016, 2017, and 2019). In order to assess the potentially increasing storm surge impacts due to sea-level rise, a case study was implemented to locally evaluate the modeling approach using the most accurate model setup for two 2100 SLR projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Despite a TWL underestimation in all sets of simulations, the CFSv2 model stood out as the most consistent meteorological forcing for the hindcasting of the storm surge and waves in the numerical model, with an RMSE range varying from 0.19 m to 0.37 m, and an RMSE of 0.56 m for Hs during the most significant event. ERA5 was highlighted as the second most accurate meteorological forcing, while adequately simulating the peak timings. The SLR study case demonstrated a possible increase of up to 82% in the TWL during the same event. Despite the limitations imposed by the lack of continuous and densely distributed observational data, as well as up to date topobathymetric datasets, the proposed framework was capable of expanding TWL and Hs information, previously available for a handful of gauge stations, to a spatially distributed and temporally unlimited scale. This more comprehensive understanding of such extreme events represents valuable knowledge for the potential implementation of more adequate coastal management and engineering practices for the Brazilian coastal zone, especially under changing climate conditions.
Changes in timing of snowmelt-fed streamflow have great importance for water supply, flood management, and ecological processes, as well as being a common indicator of climate change. In this study, snowmelt runoff timing change in the contiguous United States between 1957 and 2016 was investigated by analysing data from 97 streamflow gages. The annual snowmelt runoff timing shift was identified using
Os ecossistemas contribuem, por meio de seus Serviços Ecossistêmicos (SEs) diretos ou indiretos, para o bem-estar humano. Desse modo, para que os ecossistemas mantenham uma condição saudável, a gestão com base em ecossistemas aborda as interações homem-meio, para que seus serviços sejam apropriados de maneira sustentável. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo dar subsídios para uma gestão costeira integrada da Ilha de Santa Catarina (ISC) e entorno, município de Florianópolis, com base em uma perspectiva ecossistêmica. Para isso, foram necessários o mapeamento de ecossistemas, a elaboração e a análise de uma matriz de serviços, e a definição dos serviços básicos para o bem-estar humano, ou seja, os serviços que possuem maior capacidade de contribuir para um meio de vida seguro e adequado. O mapeamento realizado possibilitou a classificação de 14 ecossistemas na área de estudo. Os ecossistemas marinhos correspondem a 51,9% e os terrestres a 37,3%. As áreas antropizadas urbanas e rurais correspondem a 10,8% da área de estudo. Foram identificados seis SE básicos na ISC, associados a 11 ecossistemas mapeados: estoque pesqueiro, proteção da linha de costa, recarga de aquífero, recurso hídrico, depuração de poluentes e berçário natural. O Sistema de Informações criado permitiu a realização de consultas quantitativas e qualitativas sobre os ecossistemas e seus serviços e o aperfeiçoamento dos dados apresentados na matriz de sistemas e serviços já existente. Além disso, estabeleceu relações espaciais entre sistemas e serviços, dando condição a futuros trabalhos de pesquisa na região.
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