Rapid Adjustments of Cloud and Hydrological Cycle to Increasing CO2: a Review

Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ogura, Tomoo; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Shiogama, Hideo

doi:10.1007/s40641-015-0007-5

Cited by 53 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 81 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…These modes account for 39.2% and 45.8% of the variances in the lowand middle-top cloud feedback, respectively. Both of the first modes are dominant over the ocean, suggesting a limited contribution of land cloud feedback to the global-mean l SWcld spread (similar to CMIP5 MME; Vial et al 2013;Kamae et al 2016). In the lowtop l SWcld , the large spread in the first mode is restricted to the subtropical-tropical ocean, similar to the intermodel variation in the low-top l SWcld among CMIP5 models (Fig.…”

Section: Importance Of Middle and Low Cloud Feedbacks For Ecs Spreadmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…Figure 1a shows total l and ECS among 136 members of the MPMPE. As shown in Shi14, total l rather than RF determines the spread of ECS (92%) among the MPMPE (2.1-10.4 K) although RF also contributes partly to CS uncertainty among the MME (see Kamae et al 2015, and Figures 1b-d show contributions of l cld , l SWcld , and l LWcld derived from the ISCCP simulator-produced cloud fraction and the cloud radiative kernel (section 2b). The term l cld also shows a high correlation with 21/ECS (R 5 0.95), suggesting a dominant contribution to the spread of ECS.…”

Section: Lower-tropospheric Mixing Intensitymentioning

confidence: 89%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Lower-Tropospheric Mixing as a Constraint on Cloud Feedback in a Multiparameter Multiphysics Ensemble

et al. 2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Factors and possible constraints to extremely large spread of effective climate sensitivity (ECS) ranging about 2.1-10.4 K are examined by using a large-member ensemble of quadrupling CO 2 experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The ensemble, called the multiparameter multiphysics ensemble (MPMPE), consists of both parametric and structural uncertainties in parameterizations of cloud, cumulus convection, and turbulence based on two different versions of AGCM. The sum of the low-and middle-cloud shortwave feedback explains most of the ECS spread among the MPMPE members. For about half of the perturbed physics ensembles (PPEs) in the MPMPE, variation in lower-tropospheric mixing intensity (LTMI) corresponds well with the ECS variation, whereas it does not for the other half. In the latter PPEs, large spread in optically thick middle-cloud feedback over the equatorial ocean substantially affects the ECS, disrupting the LTMI-ECS relationship. Although observed LTMI can constrain uncertainty in the lowcloud feedback, total uncertainty of the ECS among the MPMPE cannot solely be explained by the LTMI, suggesting a limitation of single emergent constraint for the ECS.

show abstract

Section: Importance Of Middle and Low Cloud Feedbacks For Ecs Spreadmentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Lower-tropospheric Mixing Intensitymentioning

confidence: 89%

Lower-Tropospheric Mixing as a Constraint on Cloud Feedback in a Multiparameter Multiphysics Ensemble

et al. 2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…While a full investigation into the dynamical and energy balance response to the PDRMIP perturbations will be presented separately, the present results indicate that the conclusions in the studies of (mainly) CO 2 perturbations cited above hold across multiple drivers of climate change. For the remaining inter-model diversity in the slow hydrological response, key factors for further investigations are cloud responses 33 and the role of CO 2 physiological responses over land. 34 Black carbon, which has previously been shown to induce a very different fast precipitation response to the other drivers in PDRMIP, also stands out in terms of the slow hydrological sensitivity in the present study.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO 2 , CH 4 , sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

show abstract

“…The resulting forcing is referred to the stratosphere-troposphere-adjusted radiative forcing or effective radiative forcing (ERF). For details on the mechanism of tropospheric adjustments, readers are referred to Andrews et al (2012a), Kamae et al (2015), and Sherwood et al (2015).…”

Section: Transient Climate Response In a Global Feedback Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of progress towards understanding the transient global mean surface temperature response to radiative perturbation

Yoshimori

Shiogama

Oka

et al. 2016

Prog. in Earth and Planet. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The correct understanding of the transient response to external radiative perturbation is important for the interpretation of observed climate change, the prediction of near-future climate change, and committed warming under climate stabilization scenarios, as well as the estimation of equilibrium climate sensitivity based on observation data. It has been known for some time that the radiative damping rate per unit of global mean surface temperature increase varies with time, and this inconstancy affects the transient response. Knowledge of the equilibrium response alone is insufficient, but understanding the transient response of the global mean surface temperature has made rapid progress. The recent progress accompanies the relatively new concept of the efficacies of ocean heat uptake and forcing. The ocean heat uptake efficacy associates the temperature response induced by ocean heat uptake with equilibrium temperature response, and the efficacy of forcing compares the temperature response caused by non-CO 2 forcing with that by CO 2 forcing. In this review article, recent studies on these efficacies are discussed, starting from the classical global feedback framework and basis of the transient response. An attempt is made to structure different studies that emphasize different aspects of the transient response and to stress the relevance of those individual studies. The implications on the definition and computation of forcing and on the estimation of the equilibrium response in climate models are also discussed. Along with these discussions, examples are provided with MIROC climate model multi-millennial simulations.

show abstract

Rapid Adjustments of Cloud and Hydrological Cycle to Increasing CO2: a Review

Cited by 53 publications

References 81 publications

Lower-Tropospheric Mixing as a Constraint on Cloud Feedback in a Multiparameter Multiphysics Ensemble

Lower-Tropospheric Mixing as a Constraint on Cloud Feedback in a Multiparameter Multiphysics Ensemble

Weak hydrological sensitivity to temperature change over land, independent of climate forcing

A review of progress towards understanding the transient global mean surface temperature response to radiative perturbation

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About