Rangeland Livestock Production in Relation to Climate and Vegetation Trends in New Mexico

Sawalhah, Mohammed N.; Holechek, Jerry L.; Cibils, Andrés F.; Geli, Hatim M. E.; Zaied, Ashraf J.

doi:10.1016/j.rama.2019.03.001

Cited by 16 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Historical datasets since the 1950's on NM's climatic, energy, socioeconomics, and food production were obtained and used to evaluate the observed behavior of forage crops production. The variables considered in the study were selected to reflect climate variability based on precipitation and temperature; energy as represented by crude oil production; socioeconomics as represented by the prices of crude oil and forage crops (i.e., hay, grain sorghum, and corn) [10,32,34]; and food production as represented by forage crop production, beef cattle production [11,27], and rangelands forage availability as represented by range conditions. Except for range conditions, the data for all the selected variables were available for the period between 1958 and 2017.…”

Section: Variables Selection and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In NM, rangelands on average have not shown signs of significant improvement even when precipitation was above the long-term average [40]. In other words, NM's rangelands potentially indicated some signs of long-term degradation [11,12,58]. To adapt to these low rangeland productivity conditions, some ranchers may widely depend on hay to feed their cattle.…”

Section: Hay Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ranchers' dependency (i.e., demand) on hay may also increase during drought periods [36] to retain their cattle and avoid the liquidation operations [37,38]. However, this increased demand for hay may not be adequately addressed also due to drought [11,27]. Another possible explanation for the decline in hay production can partially be attributed to a potential time lag in beef cattle numbers to adjust to drought conditions [11,27].…”

Section: Hay Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, this increased demand for hay may not be adequately addressed also due to drought [11,27]. Another possible explanation for the decline in hay production can partially be attributed to a potential time lag in beef cattle numbers to adjust to drought conditions [11,27]. In other words, an increased beef cattle number during a drought year can be followed by a decline in the beef cattle number in the following year.…”

Section: Hay Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The sustainability and hence the economic contribution of forage crops and beef cattle production systems in the state have shown a variable behavior in response to some environmental changes such as drought, limited water supply, and rising temperature. These environmental changes collectively can negatively impact New Mexican's livelihood, and thus there is a need to further evaluate their effects [1,11,22,25,27].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Historical Trends in New Mexico Forage Crop Production in Relation to Climate, Energy, and Rangelands

et al. 2020

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This study was conducted within the context of providing an improved understanding of New Mexico's food, energy, water systems (FEWS) and their behavior under variable climate and socioeconomic conditions. The goal of this paper was to characterize the relationships between production and prices of some forage crops (hay, grain sorghum, and corn) that can be used as feed supplements for beef cattle production and the potential impacts from a changing climate (precipitation, temperature) and energy inputs (crude oil production and prices). The analysis was based on 60 years of data using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. Hay production showed a declining trend since 2000 and in 2017, it dropped by~33% compared to that of 2000. Crude oil production (R 2 = 0.83) and beef cattle population (R 2 = 0.85) were negatively correlated with hay production. A moderate declining trend in mean annual hay prices was also observed. Mean annual range conditions (R 2 = 0.60) was negatively correlated with mean annual hay prices, whereas mean annual crude oil prices (R 2 = 0.48) showed a positive relationship. Grain sorghum production showed a consistent declining trend since 1971 and in 2017, it dropped bỹ 91% compared to that of 1971. Mean annual temperature (R 2 = 0.58) was negatively correlated with grain sorghum production, while beef cattle population (R 2 = 0.61) and range conditions (R 2 = 0.51) showed positive linear relationships. Mean annual grain sorghum prices decreased since the peak of 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by~77% compared to those of 1974. Crude oil prices (R 2 = 0.72) and beef cattle population (R 2 = 0.73) were positively correlated with mean annual grain sorghum prices. Corn production in 2017 dropped by~61% compared to the peak that occurred in 1999. Crude oil production (R 2 = 0.85) and beef cattle population (R 2 = 0.86) were negatively correlated with corn production. Mean annual corn prices showed a declining trend since 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by~75% compared to those of 1974. Mean annual corn prices were positively correlated with mean annual precipitation (R 2 = 0.83) and negatively correlated with crude oil production (R 2 = 0.84). These finding can particularly help in developing a more holistic model that integrates FEWS components to explain their response to internal (i.e., management practices) and external (i.e., environmental) stressors. Such holistic modeling can further inform the development and adoption of more sustainable production and resource use practices.

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Section: Variables Selection and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%