Historical Trends in New Mexico Forage Crop Production in Relation to Climate, Energy, and Rangelands

Abstract

This study was conducted within the context of providing an improved understanding of New Mexico's food, energy, water systems (FEWS) and their behavior under variable climate and socioeconomic conditions. The goal of this paper was to characterize the relationships between production and prices of some forage crops (hay, grain sorghum, and corn) that can be used as feed supplements for beef cattle production and the potential impacts from a changing climate (precipitation, temperature) and energy inputs (crude oil production and prices). The analysis was based on 60 years of data using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models. Hay production showed a declining trend since 2000 and in 2017, it dropped by~33% compared to that of 2000. Crude oil production (R 2 = 0.83) and beef cattle population (R 2 = 0.85) were negatively correlated with hay production. A moderate declining trend in mean annual hay prices was also observed. Mean annual range conditions (R 2 = 0.60) was negatively correlated with mean annual hay prices, whereas mean annual crude oil prices (R 2 = 0.48) showed a positive relationship. Grain sorghum production showed a consistent declining trend since 1971 and in 2017, it dropped bỹ 91% compared to that of 1971. Mean annual temperature (R 2 = 0.58) was negatively correlated with grain sorghum production, while beef cattle population (R 2 = 0.61) and range conditions (R 2 = 0.51) showed positive linear relationships. Mean annual grain sorghum prices decreased since the peak of 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by~77% compared to those of 1974. Crude oil prices (R 2 = 0.72) and beef cattle population (R 2 = 0.73) were positively correlated with mean annual grain sorghum prices. Corn production in 2017 dropped by~61% compared to the peak that occurred in 1999. Crude oil production (R 2 = 0.85) and beef cattle population (R 2 = 0.86) were negatively correlated with corn production. Mean annual corn prices showed a declining trend since 1974 and in 2017, they dropped by~75% compared to those of 1974. Mean annual corn prices were positively correlated with mean annual precipitation (R 2 = 0.83) and negatively correlated with crude oil production (R 2 = 0.84). These finding can particularly help in developing a more holistic model that integrates FEWS components to explain their response to internal (i.e., management practices) and external (i.e., environmental) stressors. Such holistic modeling can further inform the development and adoption of more sustainable production and resource use practices.

Building an Improved Drought Climatology Using Updated Drought Tools: A New Mexico Food-Energy-Water (FEW) Systems Focus

“…A recent study suggested that there have also been some land use land cover changes over some regions in New Mexico that can negatively affected the availability of suitable grazing rangelands that have been attributed mostly to woody plant encroachment (Gedefaw et al, 2020). These feed supplements are mostly based on irrigated and dryland production consisting mainly of combination of hay, grain sorghum, and corn (Schake et al, 1976;Davis et al, 1977;Holechek et al, 1989;Zaied et al, 2020). Agriculture across New Mexico has adapted to its climate, but it also illustrates how important water is for the state, and how droughts and other climate change-related extreme events can have such a significant impact on its economy and the livelihoods of its people.…”

“…New Mexico is specifically included in 11 of the Billion Dollar drought designations since 2000, and the threeyear 2011-13 period that severely affected New Mexico had an estimated $59.6 billion of losses nationally from the direct and indirect impacts that occurred (NOAA NCEI, 2020). For New Mexico, drought impacts affect crop and livestock productivity (Sawalhah et al, 2019;Zaied et al, 2019Zaied et al, , 2020Gedefaw et al, 2020); water supplies for public and ecosystem consumption; human, animal, and wildlife health; forests and wildfires; and recreation and tourism. These sectors have also become more vulnerable to natural hazards (i.e., droughts and wildfires) given changes occurring in the climate (NMOSE and NMWRRI, 2018).…”

Challenges and opportunities for manureshed management across U.S. dairy systems: Case studies from four regions

“…Dairies have been located within the state's limited croplands, which are concentrated near rivers or the Ogallala Aquifer where irrigation water is available (Figure 6). Concurrently, increases in the duration and frequency of drought coupled with rising temperatures have contributed to reduced water access and higher costs for farming in New Mexico, and climate change impacts are expected to intensify (Havstad et al., 2018; Zaied et al., 2020). Given the spatial concentration of dairies coupled with the role of climate change, New Mexico presents some unique constraints regarding manureshed management.…”

An Integrated Food, Energy, and Water Nexus, Human Well-Being, and Resilience (FEW-WISE) Framework: New Mexico

“…NM is a major fossil fuel (e.g., crude oil and natural gas) producer, and the energy sector significantly supports its economy. The resilience of NM's FEW nexus is challenged due to the increased pressure on its water resources, food production (Sawalhah et al, 2019;Zaied et al, 2019;Zaied et al, 2020), economic shocks from energy markets, and fluctuations in ranchers' and farmers' income. These NM challenges further highlight the need to appropriately conduct qualitative and quantitative analysis, and integrate and evaluate the dynamic behavior of FEW systems to enhance their resilience.…”