Rainfall Thresholds for Possible Occurrence of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows in Italy

Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Luino, Fabio; Vennari, Carmela; Peruccacci, Silvia; Biddoccu, Marcella; Valigi, Daniela; Luciani, Silvia; Cirio, C. G.; Rossi, Mauro; Nigrelli, Guido; Ardizzone, Francesca; Palma, Mara Di; Guzzetti, Fausto

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-4336-6_22

Cited by 19 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In this domain, the failures are more rare in the Ionian rainfall region, and in the seasonal period between March and May. Brunetti et al (2013). T 5,AMU (line 5) is the 5 % frequentist threshold proposed for Abruzzo, Marche and Umbria (central Italy) by Peruccacci et al (2012).…”

Section: Vennari Et Al: Rainfall Thresholds For Shallow Landslidementioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

Vennari

Gariano

Antronico

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

115

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Abstract. In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to saving lives and properties. In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth ® , and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for Calabria. For this purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found to be nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides in Calabria into lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions about the role of the environmental factors in the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area.

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Section: Vennari Et Al: Rainfall Thresholds For Shallow Landslidementioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

Vennari

Gariano

Antronico

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

115

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“…First is the methodological incoherence in defining ID threshold values, e.g., as lower envelopes below which no landslides occur, upper envelopes above which landslides always occur, or intermediate curves defined by statistical methods. Examples range from simple visual fits [e.g., Caine , ] to methods based on Bayesian inference to define a minimum threshold [e.g., Guzzetti et al ., ; Brunetti et al ., ] and frequentist approaches which associate thresholds with different exceedance probabilities [e.g., Brunetti et al ., ; Meyer et al ., ; Peruccacci et al ., ; Brunetti et al ., ; Gariano et al ., ; Piciullo et al ., ]. Some studies are only based on triggering events, i.e., rainfall associated with landsliding, while others take into account also nontriggering events by Bayesian approaches [e.g., Berti et al ., ] or with statistical methods which maximize the probability of detection and minimize false alarms [e.g., Segoni et al ., ; Staley et al ., ; Corsini and Mulas , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Switzerland from gridded daily data

Leonarduzzi

Molnár

McArdell

2017

Water Resources Research

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A high‐resolution gridded daily precipitation data set was combined with a landslide inventory containing over 2000 events in the period 1972–2012 to analyze rainfall thresholds which lead to landsliding in Switzerland. We colocated triggering rainfall to landslides, developed distributions of triggering and nontriggering rainfall event properties, and determined rainfall thresholds and intensity‐duration ID curves and validated their performance. The best predictive performance was obtained by the intensity‐duration ID threshold curve, followed by peak daily intensity Imax and mean event intensity Imean. Event duration by itself had very low predictive power. A single country‐wide threshold of Imax = 28 mm/d was extended into space by regionalization based on surface erodibility and local climate (mean daily precipitation). It was found that wetter local climate and lower erodibility led to significantly higher rainfall thresholds required to trigger landslides. However, we showed that the improvement in model performance due to regionalization was marginal and much lower than what can be achieved by having a high‐quality landslide database. Reference cases in which the landslide locations and timing were randomized and the landslide sample size was reduced showed the sensitivity of the Imax rainfall threshold model. Jack‐knife and cross‐validation experiments demonstrated that the model was robust. The results reported here highlight the potential of using rainfall ID threshold curves and rainfall threshold values for predicting the occurrence of landslides on a country or regional scale with possible applications in landslide warning systems, even with daily data.

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“…Geological, geomorphological and structural characteristics of a slope are also considered to be primary predisposing factors controlling complex landslide development (Fookes and Wilson 1966;Guzzetti et al 1996;Martino et al 2004). Extreme rainfall events, seismicity and human activity, such as excavations, are enumerated among the most important determining conditions (Cotecchia and Del Prete 1984;D'Elia et al 1985;Piccarreta et al 2004;Brunetti et al 2013). Because of its geological structure, the Basilicata Region exhibits a high density of complex landslides that cause considerable damage to infrastructure and agricultural lands, concomitant with a huge negative economic impact (Lapenna et al 2005;Bentivenga et al 2012;Perrone et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geological and geophysical characterization of the Brindisi di Montagna Scalo landslide (Basilicata, Southern Italy)

Bentivenga

Giocoli

Palladino

et al. 2019

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

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The Brindisi di Montagna Scalo Landslide in Southern Italy is an active complex mass movement, which affects the left slope of the Basento River. In the last few decades, this landslide has been continuously monitored, as it directly threatened some of the most important communication routes in the Basilicata Region. Nevertheless, little progresses have been made to prevent further landslide advancement, and continuous maintenance is required. With the aims of better understanding, the main factors controlling the evolution of this landslide, and suggesting the most appropriate countermeasures, a multidisciplinary study, based on the integration of direct and indirect techniques, was carried out. Direct techniques included multi-temporal geomorphological analysis of the slope, alongside geological and structural field observations. Indirect techniques consisted of electrical resistivity tomography acquisition. The combined analyses of the geological and geophysical data showed that Quaternary tectonic processes played a fundamental role as a predisposing factor, whereas seasonal rainfall, and the perpetual undercutting by erosional processes caused by the Basento River at the toe of the landslide are the main triggering mechanisms. The Brindisi di Montagna Scalo Landslide represents an outstanding case-study, concerning the interaction between a flow-like complex landslide and essential linear infrastructure, such as motorways and railways.

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Rainfall Thresholds for Possible Occurrence of Shallow Landslides and Debris Flows in Italy

Cited by 19 publications

References 31 publications

Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Switzerland from gridded daily data

Geological and geophysical characterization of the Brindisi di Montagna Scalo landslide (Basilicata, Southern Italy)

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