Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy

Peruccacci, Silvia; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Rossi, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.03.031

Cited by 280 publications

(214 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…vineyards in the Upper Rhine Plain), while forests prevail with increasing altitude. It is broadly recognised in landslide research literature that forested areas favour terrain stability, while agricultural areas and abandoned cultivated lands that gradually recovered through natural vegetation are particularly susceptible to instability (Persichillo et al, 2017;Peruccacci et al, 2017;Petitta et al, 2015;Reichenbach et al, 2014;Beguerí, 2006).…”

Section: Target Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

Schlögl

Matulla

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021-2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.

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Section: Target Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

Schlögl

Matulla

2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. In this study, a climate index estimating rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in central Europe is analysed until the end of this century and compared to present-day conditions. The analysis of the potential future development of landslide risk is based on an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario. Resulting regional-scale climate change projections across central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network. Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrence. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits an increase of about 1 more potentially landslide-inducing rainfall period per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of up to 14 additional periods. This general spatial distribution emerges in the near future (2021-2050) but becomes more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Since largest increases are to be found in Alsace, potential impacts of an increasing amount of landslides are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with additional geodata. The findings derived are suitable to support political decision makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's ground transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity.

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“…Therefore, similar to other studies (e.g. Brunetti et al, 2010;Rosi et al, 2012;Peruccacci et al, 2017;), the analysis was performed for all landslides typologies.…”

Section: Identification Of Landslide Events Selection Of Rain Gauge mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Sci. Caine, 1980;Gariano et al, 2015b;Peruccacci et al, 2017). The main advantage lies in the proximity of the rain gauge from the landslides, which provides a better relationship between rainfall and landslide triggering.…”

Section: The Use Of One or Several Rain Gauges To Assess Rainfall Thrmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In previous work using multiple rain gauges, the distance between the gauge and the landslides is the criterion used to select the rain gauge (e.g. Brunetti et al, 2010;Peruccacci et al, 2017), but the discussion on the topic is scarce and different distances have been proposed for the same region. To the best of our knowledge the spatial representativeness of a single rain gauge used to assess rainfall thresholds was never 15 addressed before.…”

Section: The Spatial Representativeness Of a Rain Gauge Data Seriesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Vaz¹,

Zêzere²,

Pereira³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. This work proposes a comprehensive methodology to assess rainfall thresholds for landslide initiation, using a centenary landslide database associated with a single centenary daily rainfall dataset. The methodology is applied to the Lisbon region and include the rainfall return period analysis that was used to identify the critical rainfall combination 10 (quantity-duration) related to each landslide event. The spatial representativeness of the reference rain gauge is evaluated and the rainfall thresholds is assessed and validated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) metrics.Results show that landslide events located up to 10 km from the rain gauge can be used to calculate the rainfall thresholds in the study area; however, such thresholds may be used with acceptable confidence up to 50 km distance from the rain gauge.The obtained rainfall thresholds using linear and potential regression have a good performance in ROC metrics. However, 15 the intermediate thresholds based on the probability of landslide events, established in the zone between the lower limit threshold and the upper limit threshold are much more informative as they indicate the probability of landslide event occurrence given rainfall exceeding the threshold. This information can be easily included in landslide early warning systems, especially when combined with the probability of rainfall above each threshold.

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“…Rainfall periods exceeding certain thresholds have been found to serve as a proper proxy for landslide occurrences and been applied in Central Europe (Peruccacci et al, 2017;Matulla et al, 2017;Gariano et al, 2017;Brunetti et al, 2010;Guzzetti et al, 2008Guzzetti et al, , 2007Dixon and Brook, 2007). Based on these findings, we employ a CI that inherits the 10 intensity and the totals of severe rainfall events, which have been shown to act as a primary trigger of rapid-moving landslides in Central Europe (Gariano and Guzzetti, 2016).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

Schlögl¹,

Matulla²

2017

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. In the face of climate change, the assessment of land transport infrastructure exposure towards adverse climate events is of major importance for Europe's economic prosperity and social wellbeing. Robust and reliable information on the extent of climate change and its projected future impacts on roads and railways are of prime importance for proactive planning and the implementation of targeted adaptation strategies. Among various menacing natural hazards, landslides stand out as most destructive hazards to the functional effectivity and structural integrity of land-bound transport systems, since they cause 5 long-lasting downtimes and exceedingly expensive repair works. Periods of heavy precipitation persisting over several days are known to be a major trigger for increased landslide activity. Along with climate change such events can be expected to increase in frequency, duration and intensity over the decades to come.In this study, a Climate Index (CI) picturing rainfall patterns which trigger landslides in Central Europe is analyzed until the end of this century and compared to present day conditions. The analysis of potential future developments is based on 10 an ensemble of dynamically downscaled climate projections which are driven by the SRES A1B socio-economic scenario.Resulting regional scale climate change projections across Central Europe are concatenated with Europe's road and railway network.Results indicate overall increases of landslide occurrences. While flat terrain at low altitudes exhibits increases of about two more landslide events per year until the end of this century, higher elevated regions are more affected and show increases of 15 up to eight additional events. This general spatial distribution emerges already in the near future (2021-2050) but gets more pronounced in the remote future (2071-2100). Largest increases are to be found in the Alsace. Consequently, potential impacts of increasing landslide events are discussed using the example of a case study covering the Black Forest mountain range in Baden-Württemberg by further enriching the climate information with and additional geodata.Derived findings are suitable to support political decision-makers and European authorities in transport, freight and logistics 20 by offering detailed information on which parts of Europe's land-bound transport network are at particularly high risk concerning landslide activity. This study supports proactive development of adaption strategies and the realization of cost-efficient and effective protection programmes as well as the generation of guidelines for climate proofing. This refers to the design of transport networks, intermodal logistics as well as the setting up of maintenance and reinforcement strategies in order to safeguard one of the most essential backbones of Europe's economic prosperity.1 Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi

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Rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy

Cited by 280 publications

References 53 publications

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

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