Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Vaz, Teresa; Zêzere, José Luı́s; Pereira, Susana; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Quaresma, Ivânia

doi:10.5194/nhess-2017-362

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…Previous investigations have shown that destruction and sliding for the majority of slope rocks are related to water effects. [17][18][19] Due to frequent rainstorms, summer rainfall concentrates in the Tonglushan ancient copper mine. The upper mine district is constitutive of intense weathering diorite porphyry having lower relative intensity and poor stability.…”

Section: Influential Factors Affecting Slope Deformationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Slope stability evaluation and monitoring of Tonglushan ancient copper mine relics

Tao

Zhu

Zheng

et al. 2018

Advances in Mechanical Engineering

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Due to natural environmental conditions and the effect of man, geological disasters (landslides, earthquakes, etc.) pose a serious threat to ancient relics distributed across China. In consideration of the current situation at the Tonglushan ancient copper mine relics, and on the basis of hydrology and geological engineering conditions of ancient relics, major factors affecting slope stability of ancient relics are analyzed. In light of major working condition types in the slopes of ancient relics, slope stability in relation to earthquakes and rainfall is analyzed using GeoStudio software with limit equilibrium methods. Results indicate that, with sustained rainfall, all slopes in the current reinforcement measure maintain a suitable stabilization status, but slope stability will sharply decline in response to an earthquake. Therefore, the influence of mining blasting activities on slope stability is analyzed. In view of the deformation characteristics of ancient copper mines, the sliding force remote monitoring and warning system based on the constant resistance and large deformation anchor bolt is adopted to continuously monitor the stability of the west slope of the relics. Monitoring results show that the application of ''mechanical gun'' instead of ''explosive blasting'' mining technique in the open-pit mine has effectively reduced the influence of mining disturbance on the stability of the western slope. As slope deformation of the relics can be effectively monitored and controlled, our findings provide a theoretical basis to analyze slope stability in other similar cultural relics.

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Section: Influential Factors Affecting Slope Deformationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Slope stability evaluation and monitoring of Tonglushan ancient copper mine relics

Tao

Zhu

Zheng

et al. 2018

Advances in Mechanical Engineering

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“…The ROC analysis has been frequently adopted to assess the success of binary prediction in different fields, such as medical testing (Goodenough 1974, Hanley andMcNeil 1982), machine learning (Egan 1975, Adams andHand 1999), and also landslide studies (Beguería 2006;Frattini et al 2010). In the definition of rainfall triggering thresholds, ROC curves have been recently adopted for evaluating the performance of the thresholds (Staley et al 2013;Mathew et al 2014;Gariano et al 2015;Piciullo et al 2017;Leonarduzzi et al 2017;Hong et al 2018;Vaz et al 2018), but also as a technique to identify the optimal threshold that minimise the false alarms while maximising the true alarms (e.g. correct alarms) (Postance et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides

et al. 2021

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The risk management of rainfall-induced landslides requires reliable rainfall thresholds to issue early warning alerts. The practical application of these thresholds often leads to misclassifications, either false negative or false positive, which induce costs for the society. Since missed-alarm (false negative) and false-alarm (false positive) cost may be significantly different, it is necessary to find an optimal threshold that accounts for and minimises such costs, tuning the false-alarm and missed-alarm rates. In this paper, we propose a new methodology to develop cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds, and we also analyse several factors that produce uncertainty, such as the accuracy of rainfall intensity values at landslide location, the time of occurrence, the minimum rainfall amount to define the non-triggering event, and the variability of cost scenarios. Starting from a detailed mapping of landslides that occurred during five large-scale rainfall events in the Italian Central Alps, we first developed rainfall threshold curves with a ROC-based approach by using both rain gauge and bias-adjusted weather radar data. Then, based on a reference cost scenario in which we quantified several cost items for both missed alarms and false alarms, we developed cost-sensitive rainfall threshold curves by using cost-curve approach (Drummond and Holte 2000). Finally, we studied the sensitivity of cost items. The study confirms how important is the information regarding rainfall intensity at the landslide site for the development of rainfall thresholds. Although the use of bias-corrected radar strongly improves these values, a large uncertainty related to the exact time of landslide occurrence still remains, negatively affecting the analysis. Accounting for the different missed-alarm and false-alarm misclassification costs is important because different combinations of these costs make an increase or decrease of the rainfall thresholds convenient. In our reference cost scenario, the most convenient threshold is lower than ROC-based thresholds because it seeks to minimise the number of missed alarms, whereas the missed-alarm costs are almost seven times greater than false-alarm costs. However, for different cost scenarios, threshold may vary significantly, as much as half an order of magnitude.

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Regional rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence using a centenary database

Cited by 2 publications

References 21 publications

Slope stability evaluation and monitoring of Tonglushan ancient copper mine relics

Slope stability evaluation and monitoring of Tonglushan ancient copper mine relics

Cost-sensitive rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides

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