Rainfall Scenario of West Nusa Tenggara in 2040 Based on CCAM RCP 4.5

Abstract

Climate change is one of the global issues with a broad impact to society. Because of its importance, there is a need to build a prediction system that can support mitigation, adaptation or prevention of climate change. West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) is an area where most of the population relies on agriculture for their livelihood so that the availability of rainwater becomes very important for daily survival. In this research, rainfall in NTB was predicted by CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) model based on RCP (Recent Concentration Pathways) 4.5 scenario. Based on the verification results, the CCAM model was proven to perform fairly well in estimating rainfall in NTB in 2014-2016. This is evidenced by the high correlation coefficient between CCAM and observed rainfall data in several locations such as Kuripan, Kumbe, and Gunung Sari which reached 0.57, 0.51, and 0.51 respectively. In January 2040 places such as Bima, Sumbawa Besar and parts of Lombok Island are predicted to have a decrease in rainfall when compared to that in January 2018. The decrease ranges from 40-120 mm in one month. While in Kumbe and Kuripan, rainfall is predicted to increase, with an increase of about 0-40 mm in one month. In August 2040 rainfall is predicted to generally rise in NTB with an increase of up to 40 mm in one month.

Sensitivity of Australian rainfall to driving SST datasets in a variable-resolution global atmospheric model

“…CCAM has recently been used for climate projections in different Australian regions, including extreme weather projections developed by the National Environmental Science Programme's (NESP) Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub (ESCC Hub) and climate projections for the end of the 21 st century in Victoria, Tasmania, and Queensland for the government. CCAM has also been used in studies on the teleconnections between ENSO and regional weather (e.g., Chapman et al 2020;Dechpichai et al 2022) and long-term climate modelling (e.g., Katzfey et al 2016;Nurlatifah et al 2019;Toersilowati et al 2022) in Southeast Asia. CCAM performs similarly to other RCMs in intercomparison assessments in Australia (Evans et al 2016;Di Virgilio et al 2019).…”