Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran

Soltani, Sedigheh; Saboohi, R.; Yaghmaei, Leila

doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0146-1

Cited by 81 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Iran is located between 25 ∘ -40 ∘ N in latitude and 44 ∘ -64 ∘ E in longitude and has a total area of (Soltani et al, 2012). Iran suffers from extreme climate events such as droughts and floods.…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in total precipitation and magnitude-frequency of extreme precipitation in Iran, 1969-2009

Najafi

Moazami

2015

Int. J. Climatol.

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Spatiotemporal changes in total precipitation as well as the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events in Iran are assessed using 187 gauging stations with at least 41 years of records until 2009. The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation is evaluated based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution fitted to the annual/seasonal maximum daily series at each location. Temporal trends of the magnitude of extreme precipitation events are also analysed using the annual/seasonal maximum daily series, while temporal trends of the frequency of extremes are assessed based on records exceeding the 99th percentile threshold. Results show an overall declining trend of the annual precipitation in particular in regions located on the north, west and northwest of Iran. Seasonal analysis shows the largest contribution of winter to this declining trend. In addition, precipitation has significantly decreased in the northwest during spring. Although the changes in the magnitudes of extreme precipitation events are insignificant, with increasing trends in 50% of the stations, the overall frequencies show significant declines in particular during winter. The magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation have also significantly declined in the northwest region during spring.

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Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in total precipitation and magnitude-frequency of extreme precipitation in Iran, 1969-2009

Najafi

Moazami

2015

Int. J. Climatol.

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“…Anticipated repetitive drought episodes may exacerbate the vulnerability of communities unprepared to mitigate their adverse effects (4). During the last 40 y, many eastern dryland countries (Iran, inland Israel, Jordan, Turkey) have experienced warming and precipitation decline (5)(6)(7)(8). Drought periods have recurred in an irregular and nonuniform manner, with highest severity, magnitude, and duration over the last decade (7).…”

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confidence: 99%

Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East

Kaniewski

Campo

Weiss

2012

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

105

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International audienceClimate change and water availability in the Middle East are important in understanding human adaptive capacities in the face of long-termenvironmental changes. The key role ofwater availability for sedentary and nomad populations in these arid to semiarid landscapes is understood, but the millennium-scale influence of hydrologic instability on vegetation dynamics, human occupation, and historic land use are unknown, which has led to a stochastic view of population responses and adaptive capacities to precipitation anomalies. Within the time-frame of the last two global climate events, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, we report hydrologic instability reconstructed from pollen-derived climate proxies recovered near Tell Leilan, at the Wadi Jarrah in the Khabur Plains of northeastern Syria, at the heart of ancient northern Mesopotamia. By coupling climate proxies with archaeological-historical data and a pollen-based record of agriculture, this integrative study suggests that variability in precipitation is a key factor on crop yields, productivity, and economic systems. It may also have been one of the main parameters controlling human settlement and population migrations at the century to millennial timescales in the arid to semiarid areas of the Middle East. An abrupt shift to drier conditions at ca. AD 1400 is contemporaneous with a change from sedentary village life to regional desertion and nomadization (sheep/camel pastoralists) during the preindustrial era in formerly Ottoman realms, and thereby adds climate change to the multiple causes for Ottoman Empire "decline.

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“…The ranges of rainfall decrease to less than 100 mm annually depending on the location in the central and eastern parts of Iran. Cause of high variability in annual rainfall in Iran can be synoptic systems and yearto-year variation in the different number of passing cyclones (Soltani et al 2012). The spatial distribution of annual precipitation in Iran has downward trend in northwestern to southeastern parts.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial contribution of one-day precipitations variability to rainy days and rainfall amounts in Iran

Hamid

Daneshvar

2014

Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol.

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Rainfalls with short persistency are the tangible characteristics of arid and semiarid regions such as Iran. Iran is an arid and semiarid region with dramatic tempo-spatial changes of rainfall. In this regard, the short persistency of rainfall is approximately observed from 1 to 7 days in whole parts, while the greater ones are only separated in eastern parts of Iran. According to the results, the rainfall persistency is ranged from 1 to 45 days, but the maximum amount and rainy days are generated by rainfalls with short persistency. So, the rainfall events with long persistency are considered as an extreme event with extreme variability. One-day precipitations generate the maximum rainy days and rainfall amounts, especially in eastern parts of Iran. Decrease in the one-day precipitations contribution to eastern parts may indicate to decrease in regional precipitation. However, decrease in contribution in western parts may indicate to increased amounts of rainfall at other persistency rates. Our results revealed that the contribution of the one-day precipitation to general rainfall has reductive trends in almost 17.5 % of the whole Iran. The most integrated and significant reductive trend of one-day precipitation contribution to rainfall spreads northeastern and eastern parts of Iran. However, in the western parts of Iran, decreasing one-day precipitation contribution to rainy days affects to increase in the diurnal rainfall. The mentioned variability can be considered as the climate change signals in respect of one-day precipitation.

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Rainfall and rainy days trend in Iran

Cited by 81 publications

References 23 publications

Trends in total precipitation and magnitude-frequency of extreme precipitation in Iran, 1969-2009

Trends in total precipitation and magnitude-frequency of extreme precipitation in Iran, 1969-2009

Drought is a recurring challenge in the Middle East

Spatial contribution of one-day precipitations variability to rainy days and rainfall amounts in Iran

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