Abstract:Improved information on the distribution of seasonal rainfall is important for crop production in Ghana. The predictability of key agro-meteorological indices, namely, seasonal rainfall, maximum dry spell length (MDSL) and dry spell frequency (DSF) was investigated across Ghana (with an interest on the coastal savannah agro-ecological zone). These three variables are relevant for local agricultural water management. A dynamical model (i.e. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) System 4 sea… Show more
“…The map in Figure 1 shows the location of communities with field study participants. In this region, crop growth is affected by changing climatic conditions, including greater variability in the onset date of the rainy season, more erratic total seasonal rainfall, and dry spells [10,15,43]. Unpredictable early and late onset dates and dry spell occurrence affect AED farmers' decision-making strategies [26].…”
Many West African farmers are struggling to cope with changing weather and climatic conditions. This situation limits farmers’ ability to make optimal decisions for food and income security. Developing more useful and accessible weather and climate information services (WCIS) can help small-scale farmers improve their adaptive capacity. The literature suggests that such WCIS can be achieved if forecast information is produced jointly by farmers and scientists. To test this hypothesis and derive design requirements for effective WCIS, we evaluated the outcomes of an experimental coproduction of weather forecasts in Ada, Ghana. The experiment involved a user-driven design and testing of information and communications technology (ICT)-based digital (smartphones and apps) and rainfall monitoring tools by 22 farmers. They collected data and received weather forecasts during the 2018/2019 study period. The results showed a positive evaluation of the intervention, expressed by the level of engagement, the increase in usability of the tools and understanding of forecast uncertainty, outreach capacity with other farmers, and improved daily farming decisions. The success of the intervention was attributed to the iterative design process, as well as the training, monitoring, and technical support provided. We conclude that the application of modern technology in a coproduction process with targeted training and monitoring can improve smallholder farmers’ access to and use of weather and climate forecast information.
“…The map in Figure 1 shows the location of communities with field study participants. In this region, crop growth is affected by changing climatic conditions, including greater variability in the onset date of the rainy season, more erratic total seasonal rainfall, and dry spells [10,15,43]. Unpredictable early and late onset dates and dry spell occurrence affect AED farmers' decision-making strategies [26].…”
Many West African farmers are struggling to cope with changing weather and climatic conditions. This situation limits farmers’ ability to make optimal decisions for food and income security. Developing more useful and accessible weather and climate information services (WCIS) can help small-scale farmers improve their adaptive capacity. The literature suggests that such WCIS can be achieved if forecast information is produced jointly by farmers and scientists. To test this hypothesis and derive design requirements for effective WCIS, we evaluated the outcomes of an experimental coproduction of weather forecasts in Ada, Ghana. The experiment involved a user-driven design and testing of information and communications technology (ICT)-based digital (smartphones and apps) and rainfall monitoring tools by 22 farmers. They collected data and received weather forecasts during the 2018/2019 study period. The results showed a positive evaluation of the intervention, expressed by the level of engagement, the increase in usability of the tools and understanding of forecast uncertainty, outreach capacity with other farmers, and improved daily farming decisions. The success of the intervention was attributed to the iterative design process, as well as the training, monitoring, and technical support provided. We conclude that the application of modern technology in a coproduction process with targeted training and monitoring can improve smallholder farmers’ access to and use of weather and climate forecast information.
“…Thus, a first step before using them was to bias-correct them against reference observations from the ground network of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) using the quantile mapping method [68] through the 'qmap' R-package [69]. For each given station, the method applies cumulative density functions (CDF) to match daily observed and forecasted (SEAS5) rainfall [70]. The quantile mapping method has been successfully used in multiple hydro-climatological and climate impact studies as well as medium-range or seasonal hindcasts verification [35,[70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77].…”
Section: Bias-correction and Lead-time Selection Of Seas5 Hindcastsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…PCC measures how well the forecast anomalies correspond to the observed anomalies over the hindcast period 1981-2016 at each ground station. The H-K discriminant score is also used to verify (or better classify) events and non-events and it is universally acceptable to provide the best estimate when evaluating binary (yes/no) forecasts for decision-making purposes [70,83]. The H-K metric has been employed by many scholars to verify precipitations forecasts against ground observations [84][85][86][87][88][89].…”
Section: Skill Assessment and Metricsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The H-K metric has been employed by many scholars to verify precipitations forecasts against ground observations [84][85][86][87][88][89]. In general, all the skill metrics have been widely used to evaluate the skill of climate predictions [35,70,[90][91][92]. The Pearson correlation coefficient and H-K skill score were calculated with base R. At the same time, the ROC and corresponding AUC were computed using the 'ROCR' R-package [93].…”
Skillful weather and seasonal predictions have considerable socio-economic potential and could provide meaningful information to farmers and decision-makers towards agricultural planning and decision-making. Peri-urban farmers in the Lower Ganges Delta need skillful forecast information to deal with increased hydroclimatic variability. In the current study, verification of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ System 5 (ECMWF SEAS5) seasonal prediction system is performed against ground observations for the Lower Ganges Delta using three skills assessment metrics. Additionally, meteoblue hindcasts are verified for Khulna station according to the peri-urban farmers’ needs and an assessment of onset/offset dates of rainy season is also conducted using the same ground observations. The results indicated that the skill of both examined products is limited during the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods, especially in the west side of the Bay of Bengal. However, during the dry winter season, skill is high, which could lead to potential agricultural benefits concerning irrigation planning. Interannual variability and trend indicated that onset dates have become later and that the length of the rainy season reduced. This could increase the pressure on the already challenging situation the farmers are experiencing, in relation to hydro-climatic variability.
“…The definitions were chosen to reflect the local farmers cropping calendar 3 and the northward evolution in rainfall distribution across Ghana. The forecasts start dates were selected based the cropping calendar at Ada district, taken as reference for the coastal savannah and considering the northward rainfall distribution in Ghana as described in previous (Manzanas et al, 2014a, Owusu andWaylen, 2009).…”
Chapters 2-5 have been published as peer reviewed scientific articles. The text, figures and tables of the published articles have been adjusted to the PhD thesis format. Editorial changes were made for reasons of uniformity of presentation in this thesis. References should be made to the original articles.
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