Verification of Weather and Seasonal Forecast Information Concerning the Peri-Urban Farmers’ Needs in the Lower Ganges Delta in Bangladesh

Abstract

Skillful weather and seasonal predictions have considerable socio-economic potential and could provide meaningful information to farmers and decision-makers towards agricultural planning and decision-making. Peri-urban farmers in the Lower Ganges Delta need skillful forecast information to deal with increased hydroclimatic variability. In the current study, verification of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ System 5 (ECMWF SEAS5) seasonal prediction system is performed against ground observations for the Lower Ganges Delta using three skills assessment metrics. Additionally, meteoblue hindcasts are verified for Khulna station according to the peri-urban farmers’ needs and an assessment of onset/offset dates of rainy season is also conducted using the same ground observations. The results indicated that the skill of both examined products is limited during the pre-monsoon and monsoon periods, especially in the west side of the Bay of Bengal. However, during the dry winter season, skill is high, which could lead to potential agricultural benefits concerning irrigation planning. Interannual variability and trend indicated that onset dates have become later and that the length of the rainy season reduced. This could increase the pressure on the already challenging situation the farmers are experiencing, in relation to hydro-climatic variability.

The Potential of Hydro-Climate Forecast Strategies in Sustaining Agricultural Productivity amongst Rainfed Farmers in West Africa: A Review

“…The potential of Scientific Forecast Knowledge (SFK) in improving the adaptation capabilities of small-scale farmers had been highlighted in several studies (Dunning et al, 2016;Gbangou et al, 2019;Naab et al, 2019;Nyadzi et al, 2018;Paparrizos et al, 2020). Ghana Meteorological Agency in the year (GMet, 2016 in collaboration with ESOKO and CGIAR provided information on the seasonal onset of rains and daily weather forecast via conventional SMS to farmers in several communities (ESOKO, 2016;Nyadzi et al, 2018).…”

“…Considerable progress has been made in weather and climate forecasting (Doblas-Reyes et al, 2013), but because of its probable nature, seasonal forecasting presents systematic errors which is a significant challenge globally (Bauer et al, 2015). Much of the information generated for weather and climate predictions is limited where practical decision-making is concerned, leading to less accurate forecasts, as predictions are being made more into the future (Paparrizos et al, 2020).…”

“…Due to this, Paparrizos et al (2020) suggested that verification of forecasts is a necessary component of a prediction system and an essential part of hydro-meteorological and operational forecast activities. Results of verification can provide essential information and can effectively address the needs of diverse groups, such as end-users of predictive information (Casati et al, 2008).…”

The Role of Soil Moisture Information in Developing Robust Climate Services for Smallholder Farmers: Evidence from Ghana

“…Therefore, accessibility of hydro-climatic information services is of utmost importance for sustainable rainfed agricultural practices and leads to higher yields and minimum risk of crop failure [10,11] Some studies have shown that Climate Information Services (CIS) can help farmers to reduce their vulnerability to drought and other climate extremes and allow them to maximize agricultural productivity [12][13][14]. The underlying assumption in the current practices of CIS is that if location-specific, timely, and skillful information is provided to farmers, they would be able to improve their farming practices [15][16][17]. This one-directional model of providing CIS, however, has shown to be flawed as farmers tend not to trust scientific information, which is dynamical weather forecasts, and experience difficulties in interpreting and applying the scientific forecasts into daily farming actions.…”

Designing agrometeorological information services in Ghana by combining local and scientific forecasting knowledge

“…Defining a strategy to sustain the coproduction process was found to be a critical design principle (Table 5. 6). In this regard, it is important to reflect on WCIS sustainability and inclusiveness.…”