Rainfall Analysis over the Niger Central Hydrological Area, Nigeria: Variability, Trend, and Change point detection

Animashaun, Iyanda Murtala; Oguntunde, Phillip G.; Akinwumiju, Akinola S.; Olubanjo, O. O.

doi:10.1016/j.sciaf.2020.e00419

Cited by 42 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…The precipitation over WA was widely distributed when considering individual models. As aforementioned, monsoon period rain contributes more than 85% of the total annual precipitation over the latitudes 5 • N-20 • N. This seems to agree with [94], which found that in September, the rainfall was the highest (about 30.85% contribution of the total annual amount) and slightly increased from August (29.44%). The present study illustrated that the area with a decrease in total annual rainfall, as revealed by the models, was the Guinea Highlands, while Cameroon, Gabon, and the Savannah exhibited the highest increasing trends (Figure 5).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Spatiotemporal Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in West Africa. Part I: Analysis with the CMIP6 Historical Dataset

Quenum

Nkrumah

Klutse

et al. 2021

Water

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Climate variability and change constitute major challenges for Africa, especially West Africa (WA), where an important increase in extreme climate events has been noticed. Therefore, it appears essential to analyze characteristics and trends of some key climatological parameters. Thus, this study addressed spatiotemporal variabilities and trends in regard to temperature and precipitation extremes by using 21 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 6 (CMIP6) and 24 extreme indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). First, the CMIP6 variables were evaluated with observations (CHIRPS, CHIRTS, and CRU) of the period 1983–2014; then, the extreme indices from 1950 to 2014 were computed. The innovative trend analysis (ITA), Sen’s slope, and Mann–Kendall tests were utilized to track down trends in the computed extreme climate indices. Increasing trends were observed for the maxima of daily maximum temperature (TXX) and daily minimum temperature (TXN) as well as the maximum and minimum of the minimum temperature (TNX and TNN). This upward trend of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) was enhanced with a significant increase in warm days/nights (TX90p/TN90p) and a significantly decreasing trend in cool days/nights (TX10p/TN10p). The precipitation was widely variable over WA, with more than 85% of the total annual water in the study domain collected during the monsoon period. An upward trend in consecutive dry days (CDD) and a downward trend in consecutive wet days (CWD) influenced the annual total precipitation on wet days (PRCPTOT). The results also depicted an upward trend in SDII and R30mm, which, additionally to the trends of CDD and CWD, could be responsible for localized flood-like situations along the coastal areas. The study identified the 1970s dryness as well as the slight recovery of the 1990s, which it indicated occurred in 1992 over West Africa.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Spatiotemporal Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in West Africa. Part I: Analysis with the CMIP6 Historical Dataset

Quenum

Nkrumah

Klutse

et al. 2021

Water

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“…Another reason is that cassava production cost is lower in the north than in the south, courtesy of available extensive, less competitive expanse of lands that could be made suitable for cassava cultivation. Furthermore, considering the ongoing increasing rainfall trend in northern Nigeria (Animashaun et al, 2020), more locations might gain a suitability advantage for rainfed cassava production with time.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Regional Cassava Yield Gap in Nigeria

Srivastava

Gaiser

Akinwumiju

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Cassava production is essential for food security in Sub-Saharan Africa and serves as a major calorie- intake source in Nigeria. Here we use a crop model, LINTUL5, embedded into a modeling framework SIMPLACE to estimate potential cassava yield gaps (Yg) in 30 states of Nigeria. Our study of climate parameter influence on the variability of current and potential yields and Yg shows that cumulative radiation and precipitation were the most significant factors associated with cassava yield variability (p = 0.01). The cumulative Yg mean was estimated as 18202 kg∙ha-1, with a maximum of 31207 kg ha-1 in Kano state. Across the states, nutrient limitation accounts for 55.3% of the total cassava yield gap, while the remaining 44.7% is attributed to water limitation. The highest untapped water-limited yields were estimated in States, such as Bauchi, Gombe, and Sokoto, characterized by the short rainy season. Conclusively, the current cassava yield levels can be increased by a factor of five through soil fertility enhancement and with irrigation, particularly in semi-arid regions.

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“…The trend of PET at the upper basin show an upward direction (R 2 = 0.2636) and also a slight upward at the lower basin (R 2 = 0.0043). The significant positive Z-scores for PET at the upper basin indicate high rate of water loss leading to frequent drought at the upper KRB (Chinwendu et al, 2017;Animashaun et al, 2020).…”

Section: Mean Annual Wbsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroclimatology of the Kaduna River Basin

Ologunorisa¹,

Durowoju²,

Akinbobola³

2021

AJCC

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This study examined the hydroclimatology of the Kaduna River Basin (KRB) in northern Nigeria. In achieving this, monthly data on temperature (T) and rainfall (P) were sourced from ten hydrometeorological stations across the basin from 1990 to 2018. DrinC (Drought Indices Calculator) software was deployed to calculate Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) adopting Thornthwaite approach. Water Balance (WB) model was used further to estimate other WB components i.e. soil moisture (SM), actual evapotranspiration (ET a ), Water surplus (S) and Runoff (R). WB components are used to examine the temporal and spatial variability of the KRB for hydrological years . KRB was divided into two sub-basins (Lower and Upper KRB). The WB analyses indicated the peak of R generally occurs during the wet season (i.e. April through October) most especially at the Upper KRB. The study further reveals that the runoff efficiencies imply that <44% of annual P results in R at the upper KRB while <27% of annual P results in R at the lower KRB. The study shows that SM utilization occurs mostly towards the end of the year and at the early months (i.e. November through March) across the basin while the majority of S is generated during wet season months, particularly from April through October when ~95% of S occurs on average with the peak S in August. The results of this study provide a baseline understanding of the hydroclimatology of the KRB which can be used as a starting point for further analyses, especially for water resources management.

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Rainfall Analysis over the Niger Central Hydrological Area, Nigeria: Variability, Trend, and Change point detection

Cited by 42 publications

References 38 publications

Spatiotemporal Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in West Africa. Part I: Analysis with the CMIP6 Historical Dataset

Spatiotemporal Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in West Africa. Part I: Analysis with the CMIP6 Historical Dataset

Simulating Regional Cassava Yield Gap in Nigeria

Hydroclimatology of the Kaduna River Basin

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