Simulating Regional Cassava Yield Gap in Nigeria

Abstract

Cassava production is essential for food security in Sub-Saharan Africa and serves as a major calorie- intake source in Nigeria. Here we use a crop model, LINTUL5, embedded into a modeling framework SIMPLACE to estimate potential cassava yield gaps (Yg) in 30 states of Nigeria. Our study of climate parameter influence on the variability of current and potential yields and Yg shows that cumulative radiation and precipitation were the most significant factors associated with cassava yield variability (p = 0.01). The cumulative Yg mean was estimated as 18202 kg∙ha-1, with a maximum of 31207 kg ha-1 in Kano state. Across the states, nutrient limitation accounts for 55.3% of the total cassava yield gap, while the remaining 44.7% is attributed to water limitation. The highest untapped water-limited yields were estimated in States, such as Bauchi, Gombe, and Sokoto, characterized by the short rainy season. Conclusively, the current cassava yield levels can be increased by a factor of five through soil fertility enhancement and with irrigation, particularly in semi-arid regions.