Radon as an Earthquake Precursor – Methods for Detecting Anomalies

Gregorič, Asta; Zmazek, B.; Džeroski, Sašo; Torkar, Drago; Vaupotič, Janja

doi:10.5772/29108

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…In phase ( 4), the use of a logical tree can be simplified by using a voting system [33] or a decision tree that does not use weights [36]. The way in which the logical tree is made depends on the previous stages and only through experimentation can we adjust the weights of each branch.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors of [36] describe the methods for detecting anomalies applied to radon time series in correlation with seismicity. The standard deviation from the mean value, and the relationship between radon and seismicity are presented in Figure 3.…”

Section: Data and Detection Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…If a variation of the GR parameters is superimposed in this case, it can lead to a false decision. A machine learning method could be a solution to this problem [36].…”

Section: Oef Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Monitoring of Gas Emissions in Light of an OEF Application

et al. 2020

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This study analyzes the possibility to use geophysical and geochemical parameters in an OEF (Operational Earthquake Forecasting) application correlated with short-term changes in seismicity rates using a magnitude–frequency relationship. Tectonic stress over the limits of rock elasticity generates earthquakes, but it is possible that the emission of gases increases as a result of the breaking process. The question is how reliable is the emission of radon-222 and Carbon Dioxide (CO2), with effects on air ionization and aerosol concentration, in an OEF application? The first step is to select the seismic area (in our study this is the Vrancea area characterized by deep earthquakes at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains), then determine the daily and seasonal evolution of the forecast parameters, their deviations from the normal level, the short-term changes in seismicity rates using a magnitude–frequency relationship and finally to correlate the data with recorded seismic events. The results of anomaly detection, effect evaluation and data analysis alert the beneficiaries specialized in emergency situations (Inspectorate for Emergency Situations, organizations involved in managing special events). Standard methods such as the standard deviation from the mean value, time gradient, cross correlation, and linear regression are customized for the geological specificity of the area under investigation. For detection we use the short-time-average through long-time-average trigger (STA/LTA) method on time-integral data and the daily–seasonal variation of parameters is correlated with atmospheric conditions to avoid false decisions. The probability and epistemic uncertainty of the gas emissions resulting from this study, in addition to other precursor factors such as air ionization, time between earthquakes, temperature in the borehole, telluric currents, and Gutenberg Richter “a-b” parameters, act as inputs into a logical decision tree, indicating the possibility of implementing an OEF application for the Vrancea area. This study is novel in its analysis of the Vrancea area and performs a seismic forecasting procedure in a new form compared to the known ones.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data and Detection Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Monitoring of Gas Emissions in Light of an OEF Application

et al. 2020

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“…We have many examples of pre-earthquake radon anomalies. Some recent examples include [73][74][75]. But for real forecasts, these values should be determined with sufficient precision.…”

Section: Radon As An Earthquake Precursormentioning

confidence: 99%

Radon Variability as a Result of Interaction with the Environment

Pulinets,

Mironova,

Miklyaev

et al. 2024

Atmosphere

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Recent years have seen increased attention given to radon from two scientific directions. After neglecting radon as an earthquake precursor in the 1990s, it has become the subject of discussions in earthquake-forecast papers due to growing networks of radon monitoring in different countries, particularly the technologies of real-time radon measurements where gamma spectrometers are of great interest as sources of 222Rn identification. The second fast-developing direction involves radon in Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) models as a source of boundary layer ionization. Here we address the second topic, which is not connected with the earthquake forecast problems, namely, the role of air ionization by radon as a source of the Global Electric Circuit (GEC) modification. In this publication, we try to unite all of these problems to present a more complex view of radon as an important element in our environment. Special attention is paid to the dependence of radon variability on environmental conditions.

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“…Before their release into the atmosphere or their decay, radon atoms are transported by diffusion and advection (UN-SCEAR, 2000). According to Gregori et al (2012), hydro-meteorological conditions govern the exhalation of radon, while transport in the earth is related to the geophysical and geochemical parameters. According to Etiope and Martinelli (2002) in different geological scenarios the transport and redistribution of trace gases (Rn, He) is often determined by the carrier gases (CO 2 , CH 4 ) which can even be considered as a controlling factor in the transport of rare gases (Etiope and Martinelli, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Radon Mapping in Croatia and Its Relation to Geology

Mostečak

Perković

Kapor

et al. 2018

MGPB

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Radon is known as the main contributor to natural background radiation exposure and the mapping of di erent radon phenomenon presents an important task in both a scienti c and regulatory context. Considering the aspect of radon e ects on health, identi cation of areas with elevated radon levels is a crucial step in radon monitoring and the prevention of adverse e ects on the population and the environment. Di erent needs regarding the monitoring of the environmental radioactivity levels in Europe led to initiatives such as the development of the European Atlas of Natural Radiation (EANR). To present di erent methods of radon mapping, the European Indoor Radon Map and European Geogenic Radon Map projects are described brie y. The aim of this paper is to present the mapping of di erent aspects of radon (indoor and geogenic) and its importance in data visualization and information dissemination. The practical experiences worldwide provide context for future activities of radon mapping in Croatia. Existing Croatian initiatives in the eld of radon risk research are mostly related to the investigations of indoor radon concentrations and identi cation of radon prone areas through one national study and several focused studies. A comparison of indoor radon levels in Croatia and several geological parameters identi ed new areas appropriate for future research that could lead towards a geogenic map of radon potential in Croatia.

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Radon as an Earthquake Precursor – Methods for Detecting Anomalies

Cited by 11 publications

References 65 publications

Monitoring of Gas Emissions in Light of an OEF Application

Monitoring of Gas Emissions in Light of an OEF Application

Radon Variability as a Result of Interaction with the Environment

Radon Mapping in Croatia and Its Relation to Geology

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