Radiological Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis

Abstract

Improved health effects models have been developed for assessing the early effects, late somatic effects and genetic effects that might result from low-LET radiation exposures to populations following a major accident in a nuclear power plant. All the models have been developed in such a way that the dynamics of population risks can be analyzed. Estimates of life years lost and the duration of illnesses were generated and a framework recommended for summarizing health impacts. Uncertainty is addressed by providing models for upper, central and lower estimates of most effects. The models are believed to be a significant improvement over the models used in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Reactor Safety Study, and they can easily be modified to reflect advances in scientific understanding of the health effects of ionizing radiation.

RADTRAN 6 technical manual.

“…Above this dose, the chance of early mortality increases until it reaches 99% above 400 rem with minimal care. The survival rate at this dose level can be almost doubled with intensive medical treatment (e.g., bone marrow transplants), but death is virtually certain above 1000 rem even with intensive medical care (NRC, 1975;Evans et al, 1985;NCRP, 1989). Most thresholds for non-fatal effects, or early morbidities, are organ-based.…”

“…In RADTRAN the potential occurrence of early effects is estimated by comparing the calculated dose to estimated doses to individuals and populations that have exhibited early health effects. The ongoing reassessment of dosimetry for Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors and data from other smaller groups of individuals exposed to high doses of radiation have resulted in the publication of several models (Evans et al, 1985;NRC, 1990;ICRP, 1991). The early-effects values used in RADTRAN for acute effects are taken from Evans et al (1985) for an intermediate level of care since no values were calculated for minimal care.…”

“…The ongoing reassessment of dosimetry for Hiroshima and Nagasaki survivors and data from other smaller groups of individuals exposed to high doses of radiation have resulted in the publication of several models (Evans et al, 1985;NRC, 1990;ICRP, 1991). The early-effects values used in RADTRAN for acute effects are taken from Evans et al (1985) for an intermediate level of care since no values were calculated for minimal care. Since acute radiation effects have never been observed to result from transportation accidents, and the calculated doses from potential accident scenarios are usually well below those causing acute effects, the values used in RADTRAN have not been updated The presentation of morbidity symptoms is not discussed here.…”

DOSFAC2 user`s guide

“…Until 1993, the NUREGKR-4214 series of radiation health effects reports (Abrahamson et al, 1989(Abrahamson et al, , 1991Evans et al, 1985;Evans, 1990) were focused exclusively on low-LET radiation and provided no information on the calculation of health effect risks when radiation dosles are composed of both low-LET and high-LElT radiation. An addendum report, subsequently referred to as LMF-136 , provided information on appropriate RBE values and health effect models for alpha radiation for both latent and acute health effects.…”

“…The sample user input file contained in Appendix B of this document and distributed with DOSFAC2 incorporates the same set of acute dose reduction factors that were built into DOSFAC. These factors are based on the acute health effects models used in the NUREG-1 150 consequence calculations as described by Evans et al (1985).…”