Radiocarbon calibration curves, summed probability distributions, and early Paleoindian population trends in North America

Bamforth, Douglas B.; Grund, Brigid

doi:10.1016/j.jas.2012.01.017

Cited by 102 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 54 publications

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“…As with all new techniques, limitations of the 'dates as data' approach are evident (see Williams, 2012 for detailed critique) and have been systematically addressed (Section 4) (e.g. Surovell et al, 2009;Armit et al, 2012;Bamforth and Grund, 2012;Williams, 2012;Naudinot et al, 2014;Brown, 2015).…”

Section: Radiocarbon Data As a Proxymentioning

confidence: 99%

A continental narrative: Human settlement patterns and Australian climate change over the last 35,000 years

Williams

Veth

Steffen

et al. 2015

Quaternary Science Reviews

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, we consider the effects of climate systems on past human settlement patterns and inferred demography. We use 5,044 radiocarbon dates from ~1,750 archaeological sites to develop regional timeseries curves for different regions defined in the OZ-INTIMATE compilation as the temperate, tropics, interior and Southern Ocean sectors to explore human-climate relationships in Australia over the last 35,000 years. Correlations undertaken with improved palaeoclimatic data and archaeological records indicate that the regional time-series curves are robust, and can be used as a proxy for human behaviour. However, interrogation of the datasets is essential with artificial peaks and taphonomic over-correction being critical considerations. The time-series curves are interpreted as reflecting population growth, stasis and even decline in phase with terminal Pleistocene/early Holocene climatic fluctuations. This coupling, however, decreases during the last 5,000 years, most likely due to increased population levels, greater territoriality, technological solutions to stress, and social and ideational innovation. Curves from all sectors show exponential population growth over the last 5,000 years. We identify future research priorities, highlighting the paucity of archaeological records across several parts of Australia (<1 dated site/4,000km 2 ), especially around the fringes of the arid zone, and the need for improved taphonomic correction techniques. Finally, we discuss how these time-series curves represent a first-order framework, not dissimilar to global climate models, which researchers can continue to test and refine with local, regional and continental records. KeywordsTime-series analysis, archaeological radiocarbon data, hunter-gatherer behaviour, Aus-INTIMATE, OZ-INTIMATE, human-environment interaction, palaeoenvironment Highlights  Comparison of radiocarbon time-series techniques with other archaeological indices  We demonstrate robust relationship between radiocarbon data and demographic change  Our results suggest past demography was coupled with climate until mid-Holocene  Mid-Holocene social/technological innovation effected a de-coupling of relationship  We provide future directions for Australian archaeological and time-series research 3

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Section: Radiocarbon Data As a Proxymentioning

confidence: 99%

A continental narrative: Human settlement patterns and Australian climate change over the last 35,000 years

Williams

Veth

Steffen

et al. 2015

Quaternary Science Reviews

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“…Their study highlighted that genetic changes in the population correlate well with population mobility, increase/ decrease of endogamy in the kinship structure, and changes in the economy, i.e., beginning of plant cultivation. Population density and distribution in archeology has been inferred also through summed probability distribution of radiocarbon dates (e.g., Crema et al 2016, Shennan and Edinborough 2007, Bamforth and Grund 2012, and references therein), through settlement pattern and distribution (Zimmermann et al 2009), or habitable areas (see Gautney and Holliday 2015, and references therein). Some of the most recent results of this approach seem to indicate that demography had a crucial role in shaping the phase of incipient food-production in Europe (Shennan et al 2013), although a different perspective is also emerging, that compares the demographic growth of HG to that of AP (Zahid et al 2016).…”

Section: Parameter 3: Social Resourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience of small-scale societies’ livelihoods: a framework for studying the transition from food gathering to food production

Lancelotti¹,

Zurro²,

Whitehouse³

et al. 2016

E&S

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. 2016. Resilience of small-scale societies' livelihoods: a framework for studying the transition from food gathering to food production. Ecology and Society 21 (4) ABSTRACT. The origins of agriculture and the shift from hunting and gathering to committed agriculture is regarded as one of the major transitions in human history. Archeologists and anthropologists have invested significant efforts in explaining the origins of agriculture. A period of gathering intensification and experimentation and pursuing a mixed economic strategy seems the most plausible explanation for the transition to agriculture and provides an approach to study a process in which several nonlinear processes may have played a role. However, the mechanisms underlying the transition to full agriculture are not completely clear. This is partly due to the nature of the archeological record, which registers a practice only once it has become clearly established. Thus, points of transitions have limited visibility and the mechanisms involved in the process are difficult to untangle. The complexity of such transitions also implies that shifts can be distinctively different in particular environments and under varying historical and social conditions. In this paper we discuss some of the elements involved in the transition to food production within the framework of resilience theory. We propose a theoretical conceptual model in which the resilience of livelihood strategies lies at the intersection of three spheres: the environmental, economical, and social domains. Transitions occur when the rate of change, in one or more of these domains, is so elevated or its magnitude so large that the livelihood system is unable to bounce back to its original state. In this situation, the system moves to an alternative stable state, from one livelihood strategy to another.

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“…Many syntheses of radiocarbon datasets have failed to fully confront these factors, limiting the applicability of these approaches and leading to criticisms within the archaeological literature (e.g. Bamforth and Grund 2012;Contreras and Meadows 2014;Crombé and Robinson 2014;Sheridan and Pétrequin 2014). Here, we present methods whereby the imperfections and limitations of the archaeological record can be better contextualised, understood and taken into account when using meta-analytical approaches centred on radiocarbon dates.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Changing Face of Neolithic and Bronze Age Ireland: A Big Data Approach to the Settlement and Burial Records

et al. 2016

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This paper synthesizes and discusses the spatial and temporal patterns of archaeological sites in Ireland, spanning the Neolithic period and the Bronze Age transition (4300-1900 cal BC), in order to explore the timing and implications of the main changes that occurred in the archaeological record of that period. Large amounts of new data are sourced from unpublished developer-led excavations and combined with national archives, published excavations and online databases. Bayesian radiocarbon models and contextand sample-sensitive summed radiocarbon probabilities are used to examine the dataset. The study captures the scale and timing of the initial expansion of Early Neolithic settlement and the ensuing attenuation of all such activity-an apparent boom-and-bust cycle. The Late Neolithic and Chalcolithic periods are characterised by a resurgence and diversification of activity. Contextualisation and spatial analysis of radiocarbon data reveals finer-scale patterning than is usually possible with summed-probability approaches: the boom-and-bust models of prehistoric populations may, in fact, be a misinterpretation of more subtle demographic changes occurring at the same time as cultural change and attendant differences in the archaeological record.

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Radiocarbon calibration curves, summed probability distributions, and early Paleoindian population trends in North America

Cited by 102 publications

References 54 publications

A continental narrative: Human settlement patterns and Australian climate change over the last 35,000 years

A continental narrative: Human settlement patterns and Australian climate change over the last 35,000 years

Resilience of small-scale societies’ livelihoods: a framework for studying the transition from food gathering to food production

The Changing Face of Neolithic and Bronze Age Ireland: A Big Data Approach to the Settlement and Burial Records

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Radiocarbon calibration curves, summed probability distributions, and early Paleoindian population trends in North America

Cited by 102 publications

References 54 publications

A continental narrative: Human settlement patterns and Australian climate change over the last 35,000 years

A continental narrative: Human settlement patterns and Australian climate change over the last 35,000 years

Resilience of small-scale societies&#8217; livelihoods: a framework for studying the transition from food gathering to food production

The Changing Face of Neolithic and Bronze Age Ireland: A Big Data Approach to the Settlement and Burial Records

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Resilience of small-scale societies’ livelihoods: a framework for studying the transition from food gathering to food production