Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time

Vessella, Federico; Simeone, Marco Cosimo; Schirone, Bartolomeo

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.04.018

Cited by 33 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…Senegalia) senegal complex, or it simply could have occupied a diversity of habitats (moist-dry woodland to shrublands) (Bouchenak-Khelladi et al 2015). It is evident that local glacial refugia were fundamental in preserving and safeguarding the vegetation (Vessella et al 2015). However, the broad areas of high suitability predicted by our hindcasting suggest a stable and wide possible range for S. senegal, which negates the existence of savannah refugia in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly for species adapted to the arid environment.…”

Section: Quaternary Climatic Fluctuations and Suitable Areas For Senementioning

confidence: 77%

Testing the forest refuge hypothesis in sub-Saharan Africa using species distribution modeling for a key savannah tree species, Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton

Lyam¹,

Duque-Lazo²,

Schnitzler³

et al. 2020

Frontiers of Biogeography

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Highlights • Suitable climate for Senegalia senegal dominated the savannahs of sub-Saharan Africa since the Last Interglacial to the present. • High suitability area for Senegalia senegal indicates that the species occupied a stable and wide possible range to allow its persistence and survival in open habitat rather than isolated refugia during the LGM, thus providing no support for the existence of savannah refugia for this tree species. • Precipitation of the wettest month, seasonal potential evapotranspiration, soil pH, and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter are important environmental determinants of the distribution of Senegalia senegal. • The insights into range dynamics and historical distribution for Senegalia senegal will be useful for predicting future responses to anthropogenic climate change in this species and related taxa.

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Section: Quaternary Climatic Fluctuations and Suitable Areas For Senementioning

confidence: 77%

Testing the forest refuge hypothesis in sub-Saharan Africa using species distribution modeling for a key savannah tree species, Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton

Lyam¹,

Duque-Lazo²,

Schnitzler³

et al. 2020

Frontiers of Biogeography

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“…Each of the taxa studied, together with its specific floristic composition, constitutes the climax of the vegetation series in the study area (Rivas-Martínez 1987;Valle 2004). In this respect, SDM represents a powerful tool for studying single species and/or forest dynamics (Alba-Sánchez et al 2010;Attorre et al 2013;Bede-Fazekas et al 2014;Vessella et al 2015;Al-Qaddi et al 2016;Hidalgo 2016a, 2016b). The study presented in this paper used an LR model to predict the forest dynamics of the most significant trees in southern Spain at specific points in the twenty-first century.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting suitability of forest dynamics to future climatic conditions: the likely dominance of Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.)

Tirado

Hidalgo

2018

Annals of Forest Science

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& Key message Composite logistic regression models simulating the potential effect of global climate change on forests dynamics in the southern Iberian Peninsula identify Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) as the chief beneficiaries of the anticipated environmental shifts, whereas other oak species and conifers suffer a decline. & Context The ten most important tree species (five oaks and five conifers) in Southern Spain were selected for the study. The study area, corresponding to the region of Andalusia, is located in an interesting position between Central European and North African climates. The territory also exhibits the most extreme patterns of rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula. & Aims This study aims to model the potential distribution of the ten species in response to climate change, in several time periods, including the present and two future twenty-first century dates. & Methods The potential distributions within the different scenarios were simulated using logistic regression techniques based on a set of 19 climate variables from the WorldClim 1.4 project. The scenarios were drawn from the RCP 2.6 and 6.0 in the CCSM4 Global Circulation Model. The resolution of the output maps was 30 arc-seconds. & Results The simulation predicted increased distribution areas for Q. ilex and P. halepensis under the four future scenarios as compared to present. The eight remaining taxa suffered a severe retraction in potential distribution. & Conclusion Global climate change is likely to have a significant impact on forest dynamics in southern Spain. Only two species would benefit to the detriment of the others. Logistic Regression is identified as a robust method for carrying out management and conservation programmes.

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“…Other algorithms were considered at the beginning such as Niche Mosaic, Bioclim and Environmental Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA), but then dismissed because of non-reliable results in AUC values. A consensus map across the six algorithms was built following the equation (Vessella et al 2015(Vessella et al , 2017López-Tirado et al 2018): where X pond is the weighted probability of habitat suitability, z i is the probability of the potential occurrence of the cell of the i-model and AUC i is the Area Under the Curve.…”

Section: Ecological Niche Modeling and Goodness Of Fitmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of climate change on potential distribution of Cedrus libani A. Rich in the twenty-first century: an Ecological Niche Modeling assessment

et al. 2020

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Quercus suber range dynamics by ecological niche modelling: from the Last Interglacial to present time

Cited by 33 publications

References 60 publications

Testing the forest refuge hypothesis in sub-Saharan Africa using species distribution modeling for a key savannah tree species, Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton

Testing the forest refuge hypothesis in sub-Saharan Africa using species distribution modeling for a key savannah tree species, Senegalia senegal (L.) Britton

Predicting suitability of forest dynamics to future climatic conditions: the likely dominance of Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.)

Effect of climate change on potential distribution of Cedrus libani A. Rich in the twenty-first century: an Ecological Niche Modeling assessment

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