Predicting suitability of forest dynamics to future climatic conditions: the likely dominance of Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.)

Abstract

& Key message Composite logistic regression models simulating the potential effect of global climate change on forests dynamics in the southern Iberian Peninsula identify Holm oak [Quercus ilex subsp. ballota (Desf.) Samp.] and Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis Mill.) as the chief beneficiaries of the anticipated environmental shifts, whereas other oak species and conifers suffer a decline. & Context The ten most important tree species (five oaks and five conifers) in Southern Spain were selected for the study. The study area, corresponding to the region of Andalusia, is located in an interesting position between Central European and North African climates. The territory also exhibits the most extreme patterns of rainfall in the Iberian Peninsula. & Aims This study aims to model the potential distribution of the ten species in response to climate change, in several time periods, including the present and two future twenty-first century dates. & Methods The potential distributions within the different scenarios were simulated using logistic regression techniques based on a set of 19 climate variables from the WorldClim 1.4 project. The scenarios were drawn from the RCP 2.6 and 6.0 in the CCSM4 Global Circulation Model. The resolution of the output maps was 30 arc-seconds. & Results The simulation predicted increased distribution areas for Q. ilex and P. halepensis under the four future scenarios as compared to present. The eight remaining taxa suffered a severe retraction in potential distribution. & Conclusion Global climate change is likely to have a significant impact on forest dynamics in southern Spain. Only two species would benefit to the detriment of the others. Logistic Regression is identified as a robust method for carrying out management and conservation programmes.

Distribution patterns of Quercus ilex from the last interglacial period to the future by ecological niche modeling

“…Our results on the distribution of Q. ilex in the Iberian and Italian Peninsula contradict the predictions made by López‐Tirado et al. ( 2018 ) and López‐Tirado and Hidalgo ( 2018 ), who suggested that evergreen oak species, including Q. ilex , may expand their range of distribution and benefit from climate change in the western Mediterranean region. However, our approach takes into account the ecological requirements of Q. ilex and eliminates highly correlated variables, which helps to prevent overestimation by producing more simple models.…”

“…Due to these significant ecological and economic roles, Q. ilex is considered as a keystone tree species in the midwestern Mediterranean Basin (Hernández‐Agüero et al., 2022 ) and has been the subject of numerous ecological niche studies in the region. These studies were carried out at local scale in high resolution to predict suitable areas for reforestation or the response of species to future climate change scenarios and conservation concerns (López‐Tirado et al., 2018 ; López‐Tirado & Hidalgo, 2018 ; Quinto et al., 2021 ; Tabet et al., 2018 ). Consequently, these studies pointed to the need for an ecological niche modeling approach that covers the entire distribution areas of Q. ilex .…”

Trade‐Offs for Climate‐Smart Forestry in Europe Under Uncertain Future Climate

“…Also, in our simulations, drought‐induced higher mortality was intensified by lower regeneration due to the additional warmer winter temperatures that led to decreased natural reproduction. Consequently, species that are more drought‐tolerant and do not rely on winter chilling such as Q. ilex and P. halepensis were indicated to dominate in those regions, a result that is supported by the literature (López‐Tirado & Hidalgo, 2018).…”

High genetic diversity and low future habitat suitability: will Cupressus atlantica, endemic to the High Atlas, survive under climate change?

“…Considering the warming trend, warmer winters may affect the species distribution by allowing broadleaved species, primarily oaks, to shift upwards in altitude. According to climatic projections for oak species distribution, habitat suitability is likely to increase, and upward migration is predicted (Al-Qaddi et al 2017;López-Tirado and Hidalgo 2018). This would be a limiting factor due to competition and would affect cypress woodlands, for which altitudinal shifts are also expected under future climate change.…”