We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in
the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions
spanning the last $\mathord{\sim}$11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest
($\mathord{\sim}$7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with
the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e.,
0--1800 CE), RSL rise ($\mathord{\sim}$0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily
by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the
Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up
to $\mathord{\sim}$0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely
(probability $P = 0.95$) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8
$\pm$ 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900
years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models,
expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC,
is very likely ($P = 0.90$) to rise by 42--132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under
the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century
RSL rise is very likely ($P > 0.90$) to be faster than during the 20th century.
Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current `1-in-100 year' flood is expected
at Wilmington in $\mathord{\sim}$30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.Comment: 13 main text pages, 4 figures, 4 supplemental pages. Published in
Climatic Chang