Quantitative assessment of landform equifinality and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction using geomorphic models

Nicholas, A. P.; Quine, Timothy A.

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.04.004

Cited by 20 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 44 publications

(58 reference statements)

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“…The concept is linked to the more generic form of landscape equifinality used in geomorphology, in which interactions between different processes can give rise to similar landscapes or landform assemblages through differing but equally plausible genetic mechanisms (e.g. Nicholas and Quine, 2010;Stokes et al, 2011). Both forms of equifinality have their origins in systems theory (von Bertalanffy, 1968) and has been identified and quantified in a range of geoscience settings (e.g.…”

Section: Equifinality In Numerical Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models

et al. 2015

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Abstract. The instability of moraine-dammed proglacial lakes creates the potential for catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high-mountain regions. In this research, we use a unique combination of numerical dam-breach and two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling, employed within a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework, to quantify predictive uncertainty in model outputs associated with a reconstruction of the Dig Tsho failure in Nepal. Monte Carlo analysis was used to sample the model parameter space, and morphological descriptors of the moraine breach were used to evaluate model performance. Multiple breach scenarios were produced by differing parameter ensembles associated with a range of breach initiation mechanisms, including overtopping waves and mechanical failure of the dam face. The material roughness coefficient was found to exert a dominant influence over model performance. The downstream routing of scenario-specific breach hydrographs revealed significant differences in the timing and extent of inundation. A GLUE-based methodology for constructing probabilistic maps of inundation extent, flow depth, and hazard is presented and provides a useful tool for communicating uncertainty in GLOF hazard assessment.

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Section: Equifinality In Numerical Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models

et al. 2015

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“…Equifinality is well known to play an important role in fluvial records and their modelling by dedicated LEMs (Beven 1996;Nicholas and Quine 2010;Veldkamp et al 2017). The model output for the present is the simplest to both evaluate (comparing modelled and field data) and analyse (tracing development through time) for explanatory understanding of landscape evolution and the geological/geomorphological record preserved from it.…”

Section: Equifinalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Non-linearity evaluation requires approaches such as Monte Carlo sensitivity ensembles to quantify the role of autogenic feedbacks in the model outcomes (Nicholas and Quine 2010). Systematic POS will allow a more systematic characterization of the relevant landscape properties that can then be used for systematic sensitivity analysis of the developed LEM.…”

Section: Pos Of Field Data For Effective Evaluation Of Model Outputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This approach is of course sensitive for equifinality, considering that the generated end state in simulations can be reached in many ways starting from different initial conditions and physical assumptions, whereas in the real world it was just one path. Equifinality is well known to play an important role in fluvial records and their modelling by dedicated LEMs (Beven 1996;Nicholas and Quine 2010;Veldkamp et al 2017). Such modelling is therefore often coupled with the use of multiple model runs to capture the range of statistical variability between different runs with either fixed or varying parameters.…”

Section: Equifinalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Applying Pattern Oriented Sampling in current fieldwork practice to enable more effective model evaluation in fluvial landscape evolution research

Briant

Cohen

Cordier

et al. 2018

Earth Surf Processes Landf

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Field geologists and geomorphologists are increasingly looking to numerical modelling to understand landscape change over time, particularly in river catchments. The application of landscape evolution models (LEMs) started with abstract research questions in synthetic landscapes. Now, however, studies using LEMs on real‐world catchments are becoming increasingly common. This development has philosophical implications for model specification and evaluation using geological and geomorphological data, besides practical implications for fieldwork targets and strategy. The type of data produced to drive and constrain LEM simulations has very little in common with that used to calibrate and validate models operating over shorter timescales, making a new approach necessary. Here we argue that catchment fieldwork and LEM studies are best synchronized by complementing the Pattern Oriented Modelling (POM) approach of most fluvial LEMs with Pattern Oriented Sampling (POS) fieldwork approaches. POS can embrace a wide range of field data types, without overly increasing the burden of data collection. In our approach, both POM output and POS field data for a specific catchment are used to quantify key characteristics of a catchment. These are then compared to provide an evaluation of the performance of the model. Early identification of these key characteristics should be undertaken to drive focused POS data collection and POM model specification. Once models are evaluated using this POM/POS approach, conclusions drawn from LEM studies can be used with greater confidence to improve understanding of landscape change. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…The conceptual model presented in Marchant et al (2002), and later in Levy et al (2006) and Kowalewski et al (2011Kowalewski et al ( , 2012, which highlights the effects of localized ice sublimation at polygons troughs (outlined above) appears to resolve this conundrum. The model highlights the potential for equifinality in geomorphology, which postulates that similar-appearing landforms may arise from a number of different processes or from the same process acting over different time spans (Nicholas & Quine 2010). Interestingly, the initial report that called for rapid growth and recycling of sediment at polygon troughs and centres (Sletten et al 2003), did not include data on sublimation polygons.…”

Section: Mesoscale Landforms: Contraction-crack Polygons and Viscous-mentioning

confidence: 99%

A review of geomorphic processes and landforms in the Dry Valleys of southern Victoria Land: implications for evaluating climate change and ice-sheet stability

Marchant

Mackay

Lamp

et al. 2013

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The Dry Valleys are subdivided into three microclimate zones on the basis of summertime measurements of atmospheric temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity and wind-speed/ direction. Subtle variations in these climate parameters result in considerable differences in process geomorphology and in the development of unique landforms within each zone. The mapped zones include a coastal thaw zone, an inland mixed zone and a stable upland zone. Landforms within each zone are subdivided into macroscale features (e.g. valleys, slopes and gullies), mesoscale features (e.g. polygons and viscous-flow features) and microscale features (e.g. rock and near-surface soil features, including the effects of salt weathering, wind erosion and pitting). We present a review of landscape development in the Dry Valleys with implications for long-term climate change and icesheet stability. Chronological control is afforded by 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dating of volcanic ash-fall deposits and cosmogenic nuclide analyses of surface boulders. Collectively, the data call for persistent cold and dry conditions in the stable upland zone for approximately the last 14 Ma, although some level of climatic amelioration and landform modification may have occurred within low-lying regions and in the inland mixed zone. ) SUZ Beacon Valley* (1176 m a.s.l., 74 km from the coast) 210 (222) 28 (218) 212 (225) 25 (222) 26 (221) 41 (43) Mullins Valley ‡ (1401 m a.s.l, 81 km from the coast) 211 (223) 27 (218) 215 (227) 28 (223) 210 (223) 47 (50) CTZ, coastal thaw zone; IMZ, inland mixed zone; SUZ, stable upland zone; m a.s.l, metres above sea level. Summer defined as December, January and February; annual conditions shown in parenthesis.

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Quantitative assessment of landform equifinality and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction using geomorphic models

Cited by 20 publications

References 44 publications

Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models

Numerical modelling of glacial lake outburst floods using physically based dam-breach models

Applying Pattern Oriented Sampling in current fieldwork practice to enable more effective model evaluation in fluvial landscape evolution research

A review of geomorphic processes and landforms in the Dry Valleys of southern Victoria Land: implications for evaluating climate change and ice-sheet stability

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