Quantifying the Risk of Introduction of West Nile Virus into Great Britain by Migrating Passerine Birds

Abstract

SummaryWest Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito borne arbovirus that circulates within avian reservoirs. WNV can spill over into humans and Equidae that are dead-end hosts for WNV but suffer fever, acute morbidity and sometimes death. Outbreaks of WNV are common across Africa and Eastern Europe, and there have also been sporadic outbreaks in Spain and the Camargue Regional Park in France, but never in Great Britain (GB). These areas all fall along a major bird migration route. In this study, we analyse a scenario in which WNV is circulating in the Camargue or in other wetland areas in France and we estimate the risk of northward migrating passerine birds stopping in a WNV hotspot, becoming infected and carrying active infection to GB. If the disease were circulating in the Camargue during a single migratory season, the probability that one or more migrating birds becomes infected and lands in GB whilst still infected is 0.881 with 0.384 birds arriving in areas of suitable vector habitat. However, if WNV became established in the Grand Bri ere National Park or La Brenne Regional Park wetland areas further to the north, the model predicts that at least one infected bird will continue to GB. Thus, GB is at risk of WNV introduction from the Camargue, but the risk is considerably greater if WNV were to circulate further north than its previous focus in France, but this is highly sensitive to the force of infection in the infected area. However, the risk of establishment and infection of humans in GB is dependent upon a number of additional factors, in particular the vector and epidemiological situation in GB.

Emerging Mosquito-Borne Threats and the Response from European and Eastern Mediterranean Countries

“…This level of surveillance is considered proportionate to the risk of introduction. Currently, the risk of WNV introduction into the UK is considered very low [41].…”

Molecular approaches for blood meal analysis and species identification of mosquitoes (Insecta: Diptera: Culicidae) in rural locations in southern England, United Kingdom

“…The second was to ascertain whether the parallel sequencing of two gene regions, COI and ITS2, was sufficient to support the morphological identification of the collected mosquitoes to species level. Collections were conducted in five field sites in southern England considered to be at risk of the introduction of exotic viruses of human and veterinary importance (Bessell et al, 2014).…”

Genetic Evolution of Mycobacterium bovis Causing Tuberculosis in Livestock and Wildlife in France since 1978

“…In France, bTB was endemic until the 50s with a herd prevalence rate of 25% [ 15 ]. Thanks to a generalized control program set up in the 1960s, bTB herd prevalence declined steadily until reaching 0.09% in 1998.…”