Quantifying the Occurrence of Multi-Hazards Due to Climate Change

Abstract

This paper introduces a climatic multi-hazard risk assessment for Greece, as the first-ever attempt to enhance scientific knowledge for the identification and definition of hazards, a critical element of risk-informed decision making. Building on an extensively validated climate database with a very high spatial resolution (5 × 5 km2), a detailed assessment of key climatic hazards is performed that allows for: (a) the analysis of hazard dynamics and their evolution due to climate change and (b) direct comparisons and spatial prioritization across Greece. The high geographical complexity of Greece requires that a large number of diverse hazards (heatwaves—TX, cold spells—TN, torrential rainfall—RR, snowstorms, and windstorms), need to be considered in order to correctly capture the country’s susceptibility to climate extremes. The current key findings include the dominance of cold-temperature extremes in mountainous regions and warm extremes over the coasts and plains. Extreme rainfall has been observed in the eastern mainland coasts and windstorms over Crete and the Aegean and Ionian Seas. Projections of the near future reveal more warm extremes in northern areas becoming more dominant all over the country by the end of the century.

Current and Future Multirisk Analysis in Climate Change Scenarios with Riskcoast WebGIS

“…The user can calculate the MRI using a single climate hazard or any combination of several climate hazards. The number of possible combinations without repetition for the five processes was determined from expression (5).…”

“…The increase in the frequency, intensity and geographical extent of hazardous events associated with climate extremes has been analyzed in various studies [2,3], denoting a growing concern in understanding the processes of climate evolution and adaptation. In recent years, research on the adverse impacts associated with extreme events has linked climate change to the amplification of the risk of various phenomena such as floods, coastal floods, heat waves, droughts, storms, or forest fires, studying this relationship for single specific climate or weather hazard [2,4,5]. Moreover, the development of comprehensive approaches to assess natural disaster risks, and in particular those related to climate change with a multiple risk perspective, has been addressed by few authors [4,6,7], considering all aspects that contribute to increased hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.…”

“…According to the "Report of the open-ended intergovernmental expert working group on indicators and terminology relating to disaster risk reduction" [8], the term "multi-hazard" means the selection of multiple major hazards that a region faces and the specific contexts where hazardous events may occur simultaneously, cascadingly, or cumulatively over time, taking into account the potential interrelated effects. Despite the importance of analyzing multiple hazards for describing future disaster events in terms of their magnitude and probability [5], such an approach presents several challenges. According to Forzieri et al [2], the study of multiple hazards poses two major challenges: hazards are not directly comparable, as their processes and description metrics differ, and hazards can interact, triggering cascading effects and coupled dynamics.…”

A Review of Spatial Variations of Multiple Natural Hazards and Risk Management Strategies in Pakistan

“…For better risk assessment and management planning, an integrated approach should be adopted by the researchers and scientific community, as set forth in multi-hazard early warning systems for disaster risk reduction reported by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) [13]. Natural disasters, such as earthquakes and landslides, may strike without warning [14,15]. Droughts or famines are examples of slow-moving events [16].…”

Climate Change Risk and Vulnerabilities Analysis in Trieste SECAP

“…However, the future trend is generally identified by inspecting projections values for related areas and generally expressing the trend as an increase, strong increase or no trend. In [17], the authors determined the likelihood of extreme events by calculating the probability of exceeding a value using the Extreme Value Theory and plotted the difference between exceedance probability, computed using future scenarios, and historical data for far and near future periods; again, the future trend of hazards was taken visually by inspecting graphical maps. However, in [18], the authors suggest reducing the uncertainty in climatic information provided to end users through the use of change detection tests.…”