Quantifying the combined effects of land use and climate changes on stream flow and nutrient loads: A modelling approach in the Odense Fjord catchment (Denmark)

Molina‐Navarro, Eugenio; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Nielsen, Anders; Thodsen, Hans; Trolle, Dennis

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.11.251

Cited by 86 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…As expected, the more severe scenario, RCP 8.5, results in larger impacts in terms of anomalies of snowfall. This has also been reported from similar analyses in different studies across the world [14,[70][71][72]. Despite the fact that the decreasing evolution of precipitation on an annual basis shows no significant trends, the resulting snowfall regime for each scenario follows a significant decreasing trend associated with the long-term increasing trend for temperature.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Climate Trends Impact on the Snowfall Regime in Mediterranean Mountain Areas: Future Scenario Assessment in Sierra Nevada (Spain)

Pérez-Palazón

Pimentel

Polo

2018

Water

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Snow constitutes a key component of the water cycle, which is directly affected by changes in climate. Mountainous regions, especially those located in semiarid environments, are highly vulnerable to shifts from snowfall to rainfall. This study evaluates the influence of future climate scenarios on the snowfall regime in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, an Alpine/Mediterranean climate region in southern Spain. Precipitation and temperature projections from two future climate scenarios representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (AR5 IPCC)) were used to estimate the projected evolution of the snowfall regime on both annual and decadal scales during the period of 2006-2100. Specific snowfall descriptors of torrentiality are also analyzed. A general decrease of the annual snowfall was estimated, with a significant trend that ranged from 0.21 to 0.55 (mm•year −1)•year −1. These changes are dependent on the scenario and region in the study area. However, the major impact of future climate scenarios on the snowfall regime relates to an increased torrentiality of snowfall occurrence, with a decreased trend of the annual number of snowfall days (RCP 4.5: −0.068 (days•year −1)•year −1 and RCP 8.5: −0.111 (days•year −1)•year −1) and an increased trend in the annual mean snowfall intensity (RCP 4.5: 0.006 (mm•days −1)•year −1 and RCP8.5: 0.01 (mm•days −1)•year −1)) under both scenarios. This enhanced torrentiality is heterogeneously distributed, with the most semiarid region, which is currently the one least influenced by snow, being the region most affected within the study area.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Climate Trends Impact on the Snowfall Regime in Mediterranean Mountain Areas: Future Scenario Assessment in Sierra Nevada (Spain)

Pérez-Palazón

Pimentel

Polo

2018

Water

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“…There is a consensus among many scientists that the earth's climate is changing and will continue to change at an increasingly rapid pace (Wuebbles et al 2017). Although the consequences of climate change for freshwater ecosystems are difficult to assess, some of the damaging effects are already clear and likely to increase in both direct and indirect ways (Janssen et al 2016;Molina-Navarro et al 2018). Among the indirect effects of climate variability are extreme hydrological phenomena as floods and droughts, which are depicted in Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Principal threats to the conservation of freshwater habitats in the continental biogeographical region of Central Europe

Grzybowski

Glińska-Lewczuk

2019

Biodivers Conserv

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In this paper, we discuss the threats to freshwater habitats that are highly important to the European Community in the Continental Biogeographical Region of Europe, specifically in Poland. The study covers nine freshwater habitat types distinguished in Natura 2000, Annex I of the Habitats Directive, which is a network of nature protection areas in the territory: standing water bodies (3110, 3130, 3140, 3150, and 3160) and running water (3260, 3220, 3240, and 3270), occurring in 806 Special Areas of Conservation in Poland. Of the 72,673 km 2 total area of freshwater habitat covered by Natura 2000 in Poland, only 25.70% was classified, from the period 2006-2018, as favourable status, whereas 68.72% was classified as unfavourable inadequate or unfavourable bad status. Based on a multivariate analysis, we found that significant differences in the conservation status of freshwater habitats resulted from a variety of threats, pressures, and activities, among which the most significant are urbanization and residential and commercial development; transportation and service corridors; decreased and unstable water resources; fishing and harvesting of aquatic resources; agricultural pollution; improper management and use of the agricultural catchment and forest catchment; changes in biocenotic evolution, invasive species succession, and more intense touristic exploration. The changes in conservation status of habitats 3110, 3130, 3140, 3160, and 3260 are also associated with climate change. Taking into account the threats identified, a list of recommended practices for the freshwater habitat types is presented, to be considered in habitat conservation programmes.

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“…Nitrate is by far the largest N fraction being loaded into the Odense Fjord estuary (Molina-Navarro et al, 2018), and thus crucial for the ecological status of the marine ecosystem, where it acts as a limiting nutrient (Conley et al, 2007). Moreover, modelling results suggested that direct aquifer discharge and tile drain flow are responsible of 65% and 30% of the total nitrate yield in the streams, respectively, while direct flow (surface and lateral) transport only 5% (Figure 7).…”

Section: Nutrientsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The catchment has undergone substantial hydrological and hydro-morphological modifications, including sub-surface tile draining of about half of the agricultural area(Thodsen et al, 2015). As a result, 19% of the total flow in the streams of the catchment comes from tile drains(Molina-Navarro et al, 2018). Simulation of land use changes in the catchment revealed that a decrease of the agricultural area by 21% would lead to a decrease in the drain water contribution to total stream flow from 19% to 14%, conversely increasing the direct aquifer contribution(Molina-Navarro et al, 2018).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A conceptual model for the analysis of multi-stressors in linked groundwater–surface water systems

Kaandorp

Molina‐Navarro

Andersen

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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Groundwater and surface water are often closely coupled and are both under the influence of multiple stressors. Stressed groundwater systems may lead to a poor ecological status of surface waters but to date no conceptual framework to analyse linked multi-stressed groundwater - surface water systems has been developed. In this paper, a framework is proposed showing the effect of groundwater on surface waters in multiple stressed systems. This framework will be illustrated by applying it to four European catchments, the Odense, Denmark, the Regge and Dinkel, Netherlands, and the Thames, UK, and by assessing its utility in analysing the propagation or buffering of multi-stressors through groundwater to surface waters in these catchments. It is shown that groundwater affects surface water flow, nutrients and temperature, and can both propagate stressors towards surface waters and buffer the effect of stressors in space and time. The effect of groundwater on drivers and states depends on catchment characteristics, stressor combinations, scale and management practises. The proposed framework shows how groundwater in lowland catchments acts as a bridge between stressors and their effects within surface waters. It shows water managers how their management areas might be influenced by groundwater, and helps them to include this important, but often overlooked part of the water cycle in their basin management plans. The analysis of the study catchments also revealed a lack of data on the temperature of both groundwater and surface water, while it is an important parameter considering future climate warming.

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Quantifying the combined effects of land use and climate changes on stream flow and nutrient loads: A modelling approach in the Odense Fjord catchment (Denmark)

Cited by 86 publications

References 40 publications

Climate Trends Impact on the Snowfall Regime in Mediterranean Mountain Areas: Future Scenario Assessment in Sierra Nevada (Spain)

Climate Trends Impact on the Snowfall Regime in Mediterranean Mountain Areas: Future Scenario Assessment in Sierra Nevada (Spain)

Principal threats to the conservation of freshwater habitats in the continental biogeographical region of Central Europe

A conceptual model for the analysis of multi-stressors in linked groundwater–surface water systems

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