Quantifying, predicting, and exploiting uncertainties in marine environments

Rixen, M.; Lermusiaux, Pierre F. J.; Osler, John C.

doi:10.1007/s10236-012-0526-8

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…It has been used around the world's oceans [49,57,68,23,19,71,6,37,50,52,55]. Applications include monitoring [53]; real-time acoustic predictions and DA [85,43,56,13]; environmental predictions and management [3,7,8]; relocatable rapid response [74,12]; path planning for autonomous vehicles [76,60,59,54]; and, adaptive sampling [48,28,29]. MSEAS has been tested and validated in many real-time forecasting exercises [49,19,71,56,20,51,1,50,52,55,69].…”

Section: A Ocean Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plastic Pollution in the Coastal Oceans: Characterization and Modeling

Lermusiaux

Marshall

Peacock

et al. 2019

Oceans 2019 MTS/Ieee Seattle

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To cleanup marine plastics, accurate modeling is needed. We outline and illustrate a new partial-differentialequation methodology for characterizing and modeling plastic transports in time and space (4D), showcasing results for Massachusetts Bay. We couple our primitive equation model for ocean dynamics with our composition based advection for Lagrangian transport. We show that the ocean physics predictions have skill by comparison with synoptic data. We predict the fate of plastics originating from four sources: rivers, beach and nearshore, local Bay, and remote offshore. We analyze the transport patterns and the regions where plastics accumulate, comparing results with and without plastic settling. Simulations agree with existing debris and plastics data. They also show new results: (i) Currents set-up by wind events strongly affect floating plastics. Winds can for example prevent Merrimack outflows reaching the Bay; (ii) There is significant chaotic stirring between nearshore and offshore floating plastics as explained by ridges of Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs); (iii) With 4D plastic motions and settling, plastics from the Merrimack and nearshore regions can settle to the seabed before offshore advection; (iv) Internal waves and tides can bring plastics downward and out of main currents, leading to settling to the deep bottom. (v) Attractive LCSs ridges are frequent in the northern Cape Cod Bay, west of the South Shore, and southern Stellwagen Bank. They lead to plastic accumulation and sinking along thin subduction zones.

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Section: A Ocean Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plastic Pollution in the Coastal Oceans: Characterization and Modeling

Lermusiaux

Marshall

Peacock

et al. 2019

Oceans 2019 MTS/Ieee Seattle

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“…Accurate predictions would also benefit from coupled physical-ocean and acoustics data assimilation [14]. In addition to deterministic field estimates, such efforts often require uncertainty predictions [15][16][17].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Issues and progress in the prediction of ocean submesoscale features and internal waves

Duda

Zhang

Helfrich

et al. 2014

2014 Oceans - St. John's

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Abstract-Data-constrained dynamical ocean modeling for the purpose of detailed forecasting and prediction continues to evolve and improve in quality. Modeling methods and computational capabilities have each improved. The result is that mesoscale phenomena can be modeled with skill, given sufficient data. However, many submesoscale features are less well modeled and remain largely unpredicted from a deterministic event standpoint, and possibly also from a statistical property standpoint. A multi-institution project is underway with goals of uncovering more of the details of a few submesoscale processes, working toward better predictions of their occurrence and their variability. A further component of our project is application of the new ocean models to ocean acoustic modeling and prediction. This paper focuses on one portion of the ongoing work: Efforts to link nonhydrostatic-physics models of continental-shelf nonlinear internal wave evolution to data-driven regional models. Ocean front-related effects are also touched on.

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