Quantifying Eruptive and Background Seismicity, Deformation, Degassing, and Thermal Emissions at Volcanoes in the United States During 1978–2020

Abstract

Unlike most geohazards, volcanic eruptions are often preceded by warning signs, including increased seismicity, ground deformation, degassing, or thermal emissions from hours to months (or even years) before eruption (e.g., UNESCO, 1971). Such preeruptive unrest is defined as "the deviation from the background or baseline behavior of a volcano towards a behavior which is a cause for concern in the short-term because it might prelude an eruption" (Phillipson et al., 2013). Implicit in this definition of unrest is a quantification of

Overcoming data scarcity for probabilistic eruption forecasting at data-limited volcanoes

“…Once potentially active volcanoes have been located, remote sensing monitoring data could be analysed to identify temporal trends and long-term variations of deformation, degassing, and thermal signals. Several studies have already conducted regional surveys looking at signals of unrest or eruptive activity from potentially active volcanoes, although they do not explain what makes a volcano a potentially active volcano (e.g., InSAR survey of the central Andes volcanic arc byPritchard and Simons (2002), ASTER and MODIS survey of the central, southern, and austral Andes byJay et al (2013), comparison of seismic data with observations from InSAR and MODIS from the central Andes byPritchard et al (2014), ASTER survey in Latin America byReath et al (2019), multi-parametric study of background activity in the United States byReath et al (2021), and ASTER survey of Indonesian volcanoes byWay et al (2022)). Methods proposed by the studies listed above could be applied to those potentially active volcanoes that have not been studied yet, establishing which volcanoes have undergone undetected unrest episodes in the last couple of decades.…”