Quantifying climate-induced drought risk to livelihood and mitigation actions in Balochistan

Abstract

Climate change-induced disasters show the highest risk for agriculture and livelihoods in rural areas of developing countries. Due to changing rainfall pattern, the arid and semiarid region of Pakistan faces frequent droughts. Farming communities affected by drought disasters are causing serious threats to livelihood, global food crises, environmental migration, and sustainable development. The existing study was designed to quantify two key components through (1) analysis of agrometeorological data (1981-2017) with exploratory data analysis and Mann-Kendall trend analysis; (2) extensive field survey (200 households). The multivariate probit model has been run to detect determinants of coping and adaptive strategies by farmers. Our results showed that the farmers supposed that temperature and rainfall were highly fluctuating in recent years equally. Farmers adopted different coping and adaptive measures that include crop diversification, input adjustment, water management, asset depletion, income diversification, and migration to sustain their livelihood during stress periods. The agrometeorological data analysis revealed that the agricultural vulnerability to drought risks increased significantly, and the survey results projected that 64.7% of the population is exposed to drought directly or indirectly. Sen's slope quantification resulted in (0.025 °C) rise in temperature, (− 2.936 mm) decline in rainfall year −1 . Modeling future scenarios resulted in an increase in temperature up to 0.7 °C, 1.2 °C, and a decrease in precipitation up to 161.48 mm, 103.5 mm in 2040 and 2060. The study evaluated a huge gap in the provision of drought risk resilience services, crop insurance, and climate-smart training practices to build capacities among farmers to cope with the impacts of extreme weather conditions. Our research might provide the groundwork to upgrade actions to drought prevention and early warning in water scarcity areas.

Recent and projected changes in water scarcity and unprecedented drought events over Southern Pakistan

“…Pakistan is ranked 17th among the most-scarce countries in the world, and 79% of potable water is not safe for drinking purposes (Ashraf et al, 2021). Water availability in Pakistan has been decreased from 1,300 m 3 /person (1996)(1997) to 1,100 m 3 /person (2006) and expected to decrease further to less than 700 m 3 /person in 2025 (Roxy et al, 2015).…”

Uncovering the Research Gaps to Alleviate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security: A Review

“…The issues and challenges about the education, and awareness to undertake adaptation approaches in face of climate change aiming ensuring food security are multidimensional, and recent studies have concentrated on several limitations to the climate change awareness and the adjustments besides apparent climatic and non-climatic agents of climate vulnerability, mainly in the developing and underdeveloped countries. Several studies have recommended that in face of climate variabilities, experiences are induced by both climatic (drought, temperature, floods) and non-climatic elements (limited availability of agricultural equipment and technologies, and reduced income) and therefore, it turns to be highly difficult to apprehend the intermix of such variables that aggravate the vulnerabilities of households against climate change ( Jamshidi et al, 2019 ; Ashraf et al, 2021 ; Shah et al, 2021 ).…”

Future Drought and Flood Vulnerability and Risk Prediction of China’s Agroecosystem under Climate Change

“…A large number of scholars have successively carried out research on climate change vulnerability and risk. These studies used vegetation and ecological models and other simulation studies [6][7][8], indicators to assess climate change vulnerability and risk [9] or focused on adaptation measures and technological innovations for climate change risks [10][11][12][13]. Budiyono et al [6] used vulnerability curves and flood risk assessment models; considered local factors related to hazards, exposure and vulnerability; assessing flood risk in Jakarta quantitatively, and they found that Jakarta is estimated to lose approximately US$321 million annually due to river flooding.…”