Quantification of impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Manomaiphiboon, Kasemsan; Wang, C.; Woo, Jung‐Hun; Amar, Praveen; He, Shan; Russell, Armistead G.

doi:10.5194/acpd-8-7781-2008

Cited by 11 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Although regional-scale modelling needs more detailed information on anthropogenic and natural emission inventories as well as information for their chemical boundaries from GCCMs, a number of recent studies address the regional scale future AQ, both for Europe (Szopa et al 2006, Hedegaard et al 2008, Zlatev 2010 and North America (Steiner et al 2006, Bell et al 2007, Tagaris et al 2007, Holloway et al 2008, Nolte et al 2008, Wu et al 2008, Liao et al 2009). Most of the studies dealt solely with ozone (O 3 ), some of them also with particulate matter (PM) (Racherla & Adams 2006, Tagaris et al 2007, Liao et al 2009), while Hedegaard et al (2008) simulated future levels of sulphur (SO 2 ) and nitrogen (NO 2 ) dioxides as well. Recently, Jacob & Winner (2009) reviewed current knowledge of the effect of climate change on AQ with focus on 21st century projections for O 3 and PM.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections

Juda-Rezler

Reizer²,

Huszár³

et al. 2012

Clim. Res.

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This paper presents regional scale simulations aiming to assess the sensitivity of future air quality under anticipated climate change, with a focus on near-surface ozone (O 3 ) and particulate matter with a diameter < 10 µm (PM 10 ). Constant anthropogenic emissions and biogenic emissions varying with climate were used. The modelling was carried out with regional climate models coupled to Chemical Transport Models for 3 decadal time slices, under the IPCC A1B scenario, in both coarse (50 km) and high (10 km) resolution for Europe and for targeted domains of Central-Eastern Europe (CEE), respectively. Two modelling systems were applied: the RegCM/ CAMx and ALADINClimate/CMAQ driven by ECHAM5 and ARPEGE global climate models, respectively. A comprehensive 'operational' evaluation of the performance of modelling systems driven by re-analysis of ECMWF ERA-40 fields was carried out for one full year. Our modelling systems fulfilled the fractional bias (FB) and fractional error (FE) skill criteria and the benchmark of index of agreement (IA) for maximum daily running 8 h mean O 3 , with FBs ranging from + 4 to −11%, FEs of 14 to 31% and IAs of 0.63 to 0.87. The models' performance for annual, winter and daily mean PM 10 was weaker, with FBs of −3 to −49% and FEs of 38 to 66%, but skill criteria for PM were met. Those results justified the use of proposed modelling systems for future time projections. The simulated changes in climate has rather weak impacts on the air quality of the mid-century (2041−2050). For the end-century (2091−2100), our study shows an increase in summer mean O 3 and a decrease in annual mean PM 10 in CEE. The main climate factors responsible for projected changes were an increase in summer temperature and a decrease in summer precipitation for O 3 , and an increase in winter precipitation for PM 10 .

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections

Juda-Rezler

Reizer²,

Huszár³

et al. 2012

Clim. Res.

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“…Furthermore the spatial distribution of lower tropospheric ozone is highly variable due to its relatively short lifetime (of the order of hours to days) and therefore a regional context is especially important to investigate climate change effects on tropospheric ozone [ Giorgi and Meleux , 2007]. Recently an increasing number of studies has appeared in the literature based on regional models focusing on Europe [e.g., Szopa et al , 2006; Meleux et al , 2007; Giorgi and Meleux , 2007; Krüger et al , 2008; Katragkou et al , 2010; Andersson and Engardt , 2010] and North America [e.g., Steiner et al , 2006; Tagaris et al , 2007, 2008; Holloway et al , 2008; Nolte et al , 2008; Weaver et al , 2009, Liao et al , 2009]. These studies investigated climate change effects on tropospheric ozone at the regional scale using off‐line coupling of regional climate or meteorological mesoscale models with regional air quality and chemistry transport models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future climate change impacts on summer surface ozone from regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

et al. 2011

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[1] Regional climate-air quality simulations were performed over Europe for two future decades, 2041-2050 and 2091-2100 under IPCC A1B scenario and the control decade 1991-2000. The simulations serve as a theoretical experiment investigating the impact of changing climate on summer surface ozone. Our simulations suggest that changes in summer surface ozone imposed by climate change until the 2040s are below 1 ppbv and more pronounced until the 2090s. The median of summer near surface temperature for whole Europe is 2.7 K higher at the end of the 21st century than to the end of the 20th century with more intense temperature increase simulated for southern Europe. A prominent feature is the decrease of cloudiness mostly over western Europe at the end of the 21st century associated with an anticyclonic anomaly which favors more stagnant conditions and weakening of the westerly winds for the larger part Europe southern of 50°N. Biogenic emissions double in the simulation at the end of the 21st century for latitudes below 50°and together with changes in circulation patterns, temperature, and solar radiation, contribute to the enhanced average ozone concentrations at the end of the 21st century. The change is more intense over southwest Europe, where the median of ozone increases by 6.2 ppbv. Sensitivity simulations suggest that biogenic emissions, temperature and solar radiation have a comparable impact on average surface ozone in the examined range of perturbations. The maximum response of the imposed perturbations was seen over southern Europe.Citation: Katragkou, E., P. Zanis, I. Kioutsioukis, I. Tegoulias, D. Melas, B. C. Krüger, and E. Coppola (2011), Future climate change impacts on summer surface ozone from regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe,

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“…For PM 2.5 , we use a 1% increase in all‐cause mortality per 1 μg/m 3 increase in annual PM 2.5 concentrations as our central estimate, with 0.3% and 2.0% as lower and upper bounds, respectively. Note that although NO x may influence different components of PM 2.5 (e.g., sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium), C‐R functions usually do not account for PM 2.5 composition. Therefore, we use the total PM 2.5 concentration output from the CMAQ simulations when applying the coefficients of C‐R functions summarized here.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Major Factors Influencing the Health Impacts from Controlling Air Pollutants with Nonlinear Chemistry: An Application to China

Zhou

Hammitt

et al. 2013

Risk Analysis

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Predicting the human-health effects of reducing atmospheric emissions of nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from power plants, motor vehicles, and other sources is complex because of nonlinearity in the relevant atmospheric processes. We estimate the health impacts of changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone concentrations that result from control of NOx emissions alone and in conjunction with other pollutants in and outside the mega-city of Shanghai, China. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System is applied to model the effects on atmospheric concentrations of emissions from different economic sectors and geographic locations. Health impacts are quantified by combining concentration-response functions from the epidemiological literature with pollutant concentration and population distributions. We find that the health benefits per ton of emission reduction are more sensitive to the location (i.e., inside vs. outside of Shanghai) than to the sectors that are controlled. For eastern China, we predict between 1 and 20 fewer premature deaths per year per 1,000 tons of NOx emission reductions, valued at $300-$6,000 per ton. Health benefits are sensitive to seasonal variation in emission controls. Policies to control NOx emissions need to consider emission location, season, and simultaneous control of other pollutants to avoid unintended consequences.

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Quantification of impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality

Cited by 11 publications

References 47 publications

Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections

Modelling the effects of climate change on air quality over Central and Eastern Europe: concept, evaluation and projections

Future climate change impacts on summer surface ozone from regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

Major Factors Influencing the Health Impacts from Controlling Air Pollutants with Nonlinear Chemistry: An Application to China

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