Future climate change impacts on summer surface ozone from regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

Katragkou, Eleni; Zanis, Prodromos; Kioutsioukis, Ioannis; Tegoulias, I.; Melas, Dimitrios; Krüger, B. C.; Coppola, Erika

doi:10.1029/2011jd015899

Cited by 79 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 73 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Bloomer et al (2009) estimated the magnitude of these effects from surface ozone observations over the US at about 2.2 ppb per degree Celcius and Pfister et al (2014) showed increasing summertime ozone levels under various climate scenarios. These effects have been quantified over Europe in several model studies Meleux et al, 2007;Langner et al, 2012a, b;Andersson and Engardt, 2010;Manders et al, 2012;Hedegaard et al, 2008Hedegaard et al, , 2013bKatragkou et al, 2011). The general order of magnitude of the climate penalty over Europe is a few ppb by the middle of the century.…”

Section: Hemispheric Transport Of Ozone and It Precursors In The Polimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several other studies have focused only on the regional impact of climate change (Langner et al, 2012a, b;Andersson and Engardt, 2010;Manders et al, 2012;Hedegaard et al, 2008Hedegaard et al, , 2013Katragkou et al, 2011). They found a general increase in ozone concentrations owing to increasing biogenic emissions and favourable conditions for the build-up of ozone pollution as a result of increased temperature, more frequent summer blocking and heat waves and increased short-wave radiation.…”

Section: Role Of Biogenics In the Formation Of Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Ozone holds a certain fascination in atmospheric science. It is ubiquitous in the atmosphere, central to tropospheric oxidation chemistry, yet harmful to human and ecosystem health as well as being an important greenhouse gas. It is not emitted into the atmosphere but is a byproduct of the very oxidation chemistry it largely initiates. Much effort is focused on the reduction of surface levels of ozone owing to its health and vegetation impacts, but recent efforts to achieve reductions in exposure at a country scale have proved difficult to achieve owing to increases in background ozone at the zonal hemispheric scale. There is also a growing realisation that the role of ozone as a short-lived climate pollutant could be important in integrated air quality climate change mitigation. This review examines current understanding of the processes regulating tropospheric ozone at global to local scales from both measurements and models. It takes the view that knowledge across the scales is important for dealing with air quality and climate change in a synergistic manner. The review shows that there remain a number of clear challenges for ozone such as explaining surface trends, incorporating new chemical understanding, ozone-climate coupling, and a better assessment of impacts. There is a clear and present need to treat ozone across the range of scales, a transboundary issue, but with an emphasis on the hemispheric scales. New observational opportunities are offered both by satellites and small sensors that bridge the scales.

show abstract

Section: Hemispheric Transport Of Ozone and It Precursors In The Polimentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Role Of Biogenics In the Formation Of Ozonementioning

confidence: 99%

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A significant portion of the published literature on this issue uses global-scale models to focus on the impact of climate on tropospheric ozone at the global or regional scale (Brasseur et al, 1998;Liao et al, 2006;Prather et al, 2003;Szopa et al, 2006;Szopa and Hauglustaine, 2007). More recent studies have integrated advanced chemistry schemes capable of resolving the variability of pollutant concentrations at regional scale, which spans from several hours up to a few days, with chemistry transport models (CTMs) (Colette et al, 2012Knoche, 2006, 2007;Hogrefe et al, 2004;Katragkou et al, 2011;Kelly et al, 2012;Knowlton et al, 2004;Lam et al, 2011;Langner et al, 2005Langner et al, , 2012Nolte et al, 2008;Szopa and Hauglustaine, 2007;Tagaris et al, 2009;Zanis et al, 2011). Global models with a typical resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers and regional CTMs used at resolutions of a few tens of kilometers, and their parameterization of physical and chemical processes make them inadequate for modeling airquality at the urban scale (Cohan et al, 2006;Forkel and Knoche, 2007;Markakis et al, 2014;Sillman et al, 1990;Tie et al, 2010;Valari and Menut, 2008;Valin et al, 2011;Vautard et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

Markakis

Valari

Perrussel³

et al. 2015

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. While previous research helped to identify and prioritize the sources of error in air-quality modeling due to anthropogenic emissions and spatial scale effects, our knowledge is limited on how these uncertainties affect climateforced air-quality assessments. Using as reference a 10-year model simulation over the greater Paris (France) area at 4 km resolution and anthropogenic emissions from a 1 km resolution bottom-up inventory, through several tests we estimate the sensitivity of modeled ozone and PM 2.5 concentrations to different potentially influential factors with a particular interest over the urban areas. These factors include the model horizontal and vertical resolution, the meteorological input from a climate model and its resolution, the use of a top-down emission inventory, the resolution of the emissions input and the post-processing coefficients used to derive the temporal, vertical and chemical split of emissions. We show that urban ozone displays moderate sensitivity to the resolution of emissions (∼ 8 %), the post-processing method (6.5 %) and the horizontal resolution of the air-quality model (∼ 5 %), while annual PM 2.5 levels are particularly sensitive to changes in their primary emissions (∼ 32 %) and the resolution of the emission inventory (∼ 24 %). The air-quality model horizontal and vertical resolution have little effect on model predictions for the specific study domain. In the case of modeled ozone concentrations, the implementation of refined input data results in a consistent decrease (from 2.5 up to 8.3 %), mainly due to inhibition of the titration rate by nitrogen oxides. Such consistency is not observed for PM 2.5 . In contrast this consistency is not observed for PM 2.5 . In addition we use the results of these sensitivities to explain and quantify the discrepancy between a coarse (∼ 50 km) and a fine (4 km) resolution simulation over the urban area. We show that the ozone bias of the coarse run (+9 ppb) is reduced by ∼ 40 % by adopting a higher resolution emission inventory, by 25 % by using a post-processing technique based on the local inventory (same improvement is obtained by increasing model horizontal resolution) and by 10 % by adopting the annual emission totals of the local inventory. The bias of PM 2.5 concentrations follows a more complex pattern, with the positive values associated with the coarse run (+3.6 µg m −3 ), increasing or decreasing depending on the type of the refinement. We conclude that in the case of fine particles, the coarse simulation cannot selectively incorporate local-scale features in order to reduce its error.

show abstract

“…Langner et al, 2005;Knoche, 2006, 2007;Meleux et al, 2007;Giorgi and Meleux, 2007;Hedegaard et al, 2008;Andersson and Engardt, 2010;Katragkou et al, 2011). Model assessments of air quality responding to a changing future climate indicate that some parts of Europe are expected to typically be both warmer and have higher O 3 levels.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe

et al. 2012

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The impact of climate change on surface ozone over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs) and one online regional integrated climate-chemistry model (CCM), driven by the same global projection of future climate under the SRES A1B scenario. Anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursors from RCP4.5 for year 2000 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The sensitivity of the simulated surface ozone to changes in climate between the periods 2000-2009 and 2040-2049 differs by a factor of two between the models, but the general pattern of change with an increase in southern Europe is similar across different models. Emissions of isoprene differ substantially between different CTMs ranging from 1.6 to 8.0 Tg yr −1 for the current climate, partly due to differences in horizontal resolution of meteorological input data. Also the simulated change in total isoprene emissions varies substantially across models explaining part of the different climate response on surface ozone. Ensemble mean changes in summer mean ozone and mean of daily maximum ozone are close to 1 ppb(v) in parts of the land area in southern Europe. Corresponding changes of 95-percentiles of hourly ozone are close to 2 ppb(v) in the same region. In northern Europe ensemble mean for mean and daily maximum show negative changes while there are no negative changes for the higher percentiles indicating that climate impacts on O 3 could be especially important in connection with extreme summer events.

show abstract

Future climate change impacts on summer surface ozone from regional climate-air quality simulations over Europe

Cited by 79 publications

References 73 publications

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Tropospheric ozone and its precursors from the urban to the global scale from air quality to short-lived climate forcer

Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

A multi-model study of impacts of climate change on surface ozone in Europe

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About