Quality of forecasts and business performance: A survey study of Russian managers

Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25years

“…Acknowledging the limited applicability of these results to forecasting situations, some studies used real prediction tasks to reveal good calibration for weather forecasters' probability of precipitation forecasts (Murphy & Winkler, 1984;Stewart, Roebber, & Bosart, 1999), hockey players' forecasts of future game results (Vertinsky, Kanetkar, Vertinsky, & Wilson, 1986), and experienced bridge players' probability forecasts of making the contracts that they had bid (Keren, 1987). On the other hand, overconfidence and poor calibration are reported for predictions of weather forecasters not trained in probability forecasting (Daan & Murphy, 1982), professional economic forecasters' future recession predictions (Braun & Yaniv, 1992), sports experts' forecasts for the World Cup soccer games (Andersson, Edman, & Ekman, 2005), and the Russian managers' economic forecasts (Aukutsionek & Belianin, 2001). Forecasts of earnings (Davis, Lohse, & Kottemann, 1994), election results (Babad, Hills, & O'Driscoll, 1992), starting salaries and job offers (Hoch, 1985), sports events (Ayton & Ö nkal, 1996;Carlson, 1993;Peterson & Pitz, 1988), and general events that could happen within a month (Fischhoff & MacGregor, 1982) all demonstrated overconfidence.…”

Financial forecasts during the crisis: Were experts more accurate than laypeople?

“…Empirical findings in the field of the psychology of expertise suggest that professionals representing different disciplines rarely generate predictions whose quality exceeds the accuracy of judgments made by laypeople (Camerer & Johnson, 1991). A large body of research demonstrated a poor quality of expert judgments in such fields as: sport (Andersson, Edman, & Ekman, 2005;Andersson, Memmert, & Popowicz, 2009), macroeconomics (Mills & Pepper, 1999), business (Aukutsionek & Belianin, 2001) or politics (Tetlock, 2006). Quoting the title of the paper by Camerer and Johnson (1991), one might ask: ''How can experts know so much and predict so badly?''…”

Overconfidence and disappointment in venture capital decision making: An empirical examination

“…Countering the possibility that such overconfidence in financial affairs is a uniquely American trait, Aukutsionek and Belianin (2001) found that Russian managers were decisively overconfident about their accuracy level in predicting economic indicators such as wages, employment, output, and real investment in their own sector of expertise. Yates, Lee, Shinotsuka, Patalano, and Sieck (1998) examined cross-cultural differences in overconfidence, though not in a business context.…”