Qualitative scenario analysis of development of energy storage systems in Russia until 2035

Abstract

A stationary energy storage boom is forecast for the next two decades, according to a report by the US consulting firm Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). BNEF analysts believe that energy storage around the world will grow exponentially, from a modest 9 GW / 17 GWh commissioned by 2018 to 1,095 GW / 2,850 GWh by 2040. Experts call the ongoing global changes a “contributory revolution”. The development of energy storage systems is related to trends in the energy sector, energy costs, political and environmental conditions in the world. Moreover, energy storage technologies can face both general and specific risks. The authors of the article took into account possible risks and carried out a qualitative scenario analysis of the development of energy storage systems in Russia in the future until 2035. The authors used a probability scale to avoid cognitive biases in the scenario assessment. The most likely scenario for the development of ESS today we consider the basic.