QAnon: The Calm Before the Storm

Abstract

QAnon, a group of conspiracy theorists dedicated to the overthrow of the deep state and the facilitation of the rapture, has been growing in strength and prominence since its inception in 2017. Originally started as an anonymous post on a message board, the collective has increased in membership, geographic footprint, and ideological reach. QAnon initiates have also expanded their repertoire of tactics, evolving from online chatter to rallies and, finally, to violent attacks, leading law enforcement to opine that the group may incite incidents of domestic terrorism. Although this outcome is possible, predictions of this kind have less merit unless supported by systematic analysis of the evidence. This essay attempts to address this need by providing an empirically grounded prediction of the future of QAnon. Specifically, it summarizes the results of comparative case analyses, which consists of examining groups and collectives that are comparable to QAnon on key factors and applying their trajectories to QAnon. Case comparisons indicate that QAnon may continue to grow in membership size and regional presence. In addition, QAnon members may persist in their use of violence, leading to an increase in the number and severity of their attacks.

Exploring the Nexus between Conspiracy Beliefs and Creativity, Attitudes toward People, and Psychological Wellbeing: Insights from the 10th European Social Survey

“…Some conspiracy beliefs, such as a set of QAnon conspiracies, attract large groups of individuals (e.g., up to 45 million American adults) [28] although they are based on irrational ideas spreading through social media [29][30][31]: the idea of a "deep state" controlled by Satan-worshipping elites who run a global child sex-trafficking ring or the idea that there are malicious human-lizard hybrids living among humans, that COVID vaccines were tracking devices designed by Microsoft's Bill Gates to reduce the human population, etc. [32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. These beliefs negatively affect around 80% of those connected to QAnon believers [28], leading to emotional distress and threats of violence [39].…”

“…The literature regarding predictors of conspiracy beliefs can be categorized into several approaches: one with a pathological emphasis (e.g., paranoia) and another with a sociocultural (socio-political) focus (e.g., perceived powerlessness) [3]. However, a third factor of conspiracy predictors has gained considerable attention, particularly in the context of QAnon-related conspiracies in the United States [33,34,37,38,112]. As mentioned, Adrian Hon suggested that conspiracy theories function similarly to games or puzzles, attracting individuals through the appeal of solving a mysterious puzzle.…”