Putting the Pieces Back Together Again

Malone, Thomas W.; Nickerson, Jeffrey V.; Laubacher, Robert; Fisher, Laur Hesse; Boer, Patrick De; Han, Yue; Towne, W. Ben

doi:10.1145/2998181.2998343

Cited by 19 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 34 publications

(16 reference statements)

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“…In contrast, bottom-up approaches that aggregate dynamics driving change at local scales into higher-scale scenarios are less common (Pilli-Sihvola et al 2015;De Toledo et al 2017;Hsu et al 2019). The creation of global scenarios based on bottom-up approaches is limited to a few examples, such as the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative (Pereira et al 2019d), and the MIT Climate Co-Lab (Malone et al 2017).…”

Section: Scale: Incorporating Actionable Information Across Multiple Scales and Decision-making Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Pereira

Kuiper

Selomane

et al. 2021

Ecosystems and People

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Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are in a unique position to influence environmental decision-making in the context of sustainability challenges. To do this effectively, however, new methods are needed to respond to the needs of decision-makers for a more integrated, contextualized and goal-seeking evaluation of different policies, geared for action from global to local. While scenarios are an important tool for GEAs to link short-term decisions and medium and long-term consequences, these current information needs cannot be met only through deductive approaches focused on the global level. In this paper, we argue that a more diverse set of futures tools operating at multiple scales are needed to improve GEA scenario development and analysis to meet the information needs of policymakers and other stakeholders better. Based on the literature, we highlight four challenges that GEAs need to be able to address in order to contribute to global environmental decision-making about the future: 1. anticipate unpredictable future conditions; 2. be relevant at multiple scales, 3. include diverse actors, perspectives and contexts; and 4. leverage the imagination to inspire action. We present a toolbox of future-oriented approaches and methods that can be used to effectively address the four challenges currently faced by GEAs.

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Section: Scale: Incorporating Actionable Information Across Multiple Scales and Decision-making Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Pereira

Kuiper

Selomane

et al. 2021

Ecosystems and People

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These tools have made it possible to accomplish fairly complex projects in significantly less time than standard. Finally, in the area of transactive reasoning, some AI-based "coach" tools help teams identify what different members prefer, for instance by using market-like bidding systems (Malone et al, 2017) to identify a goal members value most highly.…”

Section: Artificial Intelligence and CImentioning

confidence: 99%

Articulating the Role of Artificial Intelligence in Collective Intelligence: A Transactive Systems Framework

Gupta

Woolley

2021

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual

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Human society faces increasingly complex problems that require coordinated collective action. Artificial intelligence (AI) holds the potential to bring together the knowledge and associated action needed to find solutions at scale. In order to unleash the potential of human and AI systems, we need to understand the core functions of collective intelligence. To this end, we describe a socio-cognitive architecture that conceptualizes how boundedly rational individuals coordinate their cognitive resources and diverse goals to accomplish joint action. Our transactive systems framework articulates the inter-member processes underlying the emergence of collective memory, attention, and reasoning, which are fundamental to intelligence in any system. Much like the cognitive architectures that have guided the development of artificial intelligence, our transactive systems framework holds the potential to be formalized in computational terms to deepen our understanding of collective intelligence and pinpoint roles that AI can play in enhancing it.

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“…The Seeds of Good Anthropocenes (Bennett et al 2016), or online platforms, e.g. the Climate CoLab (Malone et al 2017). Some are sector specific, focusing on issues such as sustainable land management (e.g.…”

Section: Transformative Interventions and Sustainability Transformationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These two processes were designed to generate local data on stakeholders' perspectives. The first is a 'Seeds' approach (Bennett et al 2016) and the second is based on the Climate colab platform (Malone et al 2017). Appendix 1 provides a description of the Seeds and Co-lab proposals that were used.…”

Section: Gathering and Coding Local Practices And Perspectivesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Grounding global environmental assessments through bottom-up futures based on local practices and perspectives

et al. 2021

Self Cite

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Future scenarios and pathways of potential development trajectories are powerful tools to assist with decision-making to address many sustainability challenges. Such scenarios play a major role in global environmental assessments (GEAs). Currently, however, scenarios in GEAs are mostly developed at the global level by experts and researchers, and locally imagined, bottom-up scenarios do not play a role in such assessments. In this paper, we argue that addressing future sustainability challenges for achieving more equitable development in GEAs requires a more explicit role for bottom-up inspired futures. To this end, this paper employs an innovative global assessment framework for exploring alternative futures that are grounded in local realities and existing practical actions, and that can be appropriately scaled to the required decision-making level. This framework was applied in the context of the UN’s Global Environment Outlook 6, a major example of a GEA. We developed novel methods for synthesizing insights from a wide range of local practices and perspectives into global futures. We collected information from crowdsourcing platforms, outcomes of participatory workshops in different regions of the world, and an assessment of reported regional outlooks. We analysed these according to a framework also used by an integrated assessment model in the same GEA. We conclude that bottom-up approaches to identify and assess transformative solutions that envision future pathways towards greater sustainability significantly strengthen current GEA scenario-development approaches. They provide decision makers with required actionable information based on tangible synergistic solutions that have been tested on the ground. This work has revealed that there are significant opportunities for the integration of bottom-up knowledge and insights into GEAs, to make such assessments more salient and valuable to decision makers.

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Putting the Pieces Back Together Again

Cited by 19 publications

References 34 publications

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Articulating the Role of Artificial Intelligence in Collective Intelligence: A Transactive Systems Framework

Grounding global environmental assessments through bottom-up futures based on local practices and perspectives

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