Publication bias and genuine effects: the case of Granger causality between tourism and income

The missing link between wages and labour productivity in tourism: evidence from Croatia and Slovenia

“…Tourism can be a key to economy growth (Fonseca & S anchez-Rivero, 2020) in the most of the Adriatic countries. It seeks for new techniques that are more stable in its proficiency and prediction.…”

Tourism‐led growth hypothesis: International tourism versus domestic tourism‐Evidence from China

“…Fonseca and Sanchez‐Rovero (2020a) find that the acceptance of tourism‐led growth is more likely for countries that have a higher degree of tourism specialisation and have a bigger population size. Fonseca and Sanchez‐Rovero (2020b) demonstrate the presence of publication bias where the selected studies are more likely to support the existence of Granger causality from tourism to income. Fonseca and Sanchez‐Rovero (2020c) illustrate existing studies have a bias of statistical significance where smaller sample size improves the possibility of securing more statistically significant empirical effects.…”

“…The differences in the findings can be caused by the proxy for economic growth, the time series frequency of the data or/and the number of variables used in modelling. Fonseca and Sanchez‐Rovero (2020a, 2020b) state that 51 studies report 78 findings that support Granger causality from tourism to income and 74 findings that support Granger causality from income to tourism. Fonseca and Sanchez‐Rovero (2020a, 2020b, 2020c) analyse the existence of contradictory results in the tourism‐led growth literature formally using meta‐regression.…”

“…Fonseca and Sanchez‐Rovero (2020a, 2020b) state that 51 studies report 78 findings that support Granger causality from tourism to income and 74 findings that support Granger causality from income to tourism. Fonseca and Sanchez‐Rovero (2020a, 2020b, 2020c) analyse the existence of contradictory results in the tourism‐led growth literature formally using meta‐regression. Fonseca and Sanchez‐Rovero (2020a) find that the acceptance of tourism‐led growth is more likely for countries that have a higher degree of tourism specialisation and have a bigger population size.…”

“…Normally, existing empirical studies use Granger causality test to analyse the existence of tourism‐led growth (Brida et al, 2016; Fonseca & Sanchez‐Rovero, 2020a, 2020b, 2020c). However, this study defines tourism‐led growth exists if a long‐run (cointegrating) relationship between the proxy for economic growth, used as the dependent variable, and the proxy for international/domestic tourism can be found.…”