Public Health and Climate Benefits and Trade‐Offs of U.S. Vehicle Electrification

Abstract

Vehicle electrification is a common climate change mitigation strategy, with policymakers invoking co-beneficial reductions in carbon dioxide (CO 2) and air pollutant emissions. However, while previous studies of U.S. electric vehicle (EV) adoption consistently predict CO 2 mitigation benefits, air quality outcomes are equivocal and depend on policies assessed and experimental parameters. We analyze climate and health co-benefits and trade-offs of six U.S. EV adoption scenarios: 25% or 75% replacement of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, each under three different EV-charging energy generation scenarios. We transfer emissions from tailpipe to power generation plant, simulate interactions of atmospheric chemistry and meteorology using the GFDL-AM4 chemistry climate model, and assess health consequences and uncertainties using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Benefits Mapping Analysis Program Community Edition (BenMAP-CE). We find that 25% U.S. EV adoption, with added energy demand sourced from the present-day electric grid, annually results in a~242 M ton reduction in CO 2 emissions, 437 deaths avoided due to PM 2.5 reductions (95% CI: 295, 578), and 98 deaths avoided due to lesser ozone formation (95% CI: 33, 162). Despite some regions experiencing adverse health outcomes, $16.8B in damages avoided are predicted. Peak CO 2 reductions and health benefits occur with 75% EV adoption and increased emission-free energy sources (~$70B in damages avoided). When charging-electricity from aggressive EV adoption is combustion-only, adverse health outcomes increase substantially, highlighting the importance of low-to-zero emission power generation for greater realization of health co-benefits. Our results provide a more nuanced understanding of the transportation sector's climate change mitigation-health impact relationship.

Alternative-energy-vehicles deployment delivers climate, air quality, and health co-benefits when coupled with decarbonizing power generation in China

“…Many findings [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] demonstrate that replacing internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) with EVs can effectively improve air quality and public health, while mitigating GHG emissions. However, the magnitude of these benefits depends on the level of electricity decarbonization and the efficiency of the chosen vehicles.…”

Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption to Mitigate Extreme Air Quality Events in China

“…A simple accounting of the displacement of on‐road to EGU‐based emissions can be used to quantify net CO 2 changes due to EV adoption (e.g., Huo et al., 2015; Peters et al., 2020), but pollutant emission changes are heterogeneous in space and time, and the efficacy of emissions to produce pollution depends on numerous complicating nonlinear chemical and meteorological factors—unlike spatially well‐mixed and nonreactive CO 2 . Therefore, efforts to evaluate air quality impacts of EV adoption must use a chemistry‐transport model (CTM) to capture complexities of air pollution chemistry, transport, and timing.…”

Monetary Health Co-Benefits and GHG Emissions Reduction Benefits: Contribution from Private On-the-Road Transport

“…However, these efforts mainly focus on comparing the level of GHG emissions reduction or cost savings from the use of different electric vehicles. Peters et al [ 10 ], in a very recent study related to the study here, explored the climate and health co-benefits trade-off under six different electric vehicle adoption scenarios, where the total CO 2 emissions reduction and premature deaths represent the outcomes.…”