Psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes

Abstract

This article studies the relevance of psychological biases and heuristics in the context of foresight and scenario processes. Though there is extensive literature studying cognitive mechanisms from the psychological side, discussions on the application of these findings in the foresight context, and more specifically with regard to specific steps of the scenario method, are rare. Some studies focus on a potential debiasing effect of scenario processes and do not examine the role biases and heuristics play during the process. We address this gap drawing from empirical research and practical experience. First, we examine the relevant cognitive mechanisms using a twofold perspective: Can the respective mechanism be an impediment or can it be an enabler within the scenario process? We specify the circumstances under which the respective mechanism occurs and establish its assumed effects. Second, we outline recommendations on how to modify the method to reduce the bias or to take advantage of it, respectively. In summary, we propose that the contextual debiasing effect of scenario processes can be significantly advanced by applying these modifications and a facilitation team that is aware of psychological biases and heuristics. Finally, implications for the scenario method and directions for future research are discussed.

Developing multiscale and integrative nature–people scenarios using the Nature Futures Framework

“…As with all participatory visioning and scenarios processes, issues of power, politics and representation, come to the fore (Hebinck et al., 2018; Oteros‐Rozas et al., 2015; Pereira et al., 2018). Recognizing inherent biases whilst trying to foster a wide range of perspectives is also a methodological challenge (Schirrmeister, Göhring, & Warnke, 2020). Navigating these dynamics in a global, participatory process is particularly challenging as it will never be fully representative of the whole world.…”

“…Recognizing inherent biases whilst trying to foster a wide range of perspectives is also a methodological challenge (Schirrmeister, Göhring, & Warnke, 2020). Navigating these dynamics in a global, participatory process is particularly challenging as it will never be fully representative of the whole world.…”

The Psychological Foundations of Management in Family Firms: Values, Biases, and Heuristics

“…In the latter case, we label them as cognitive biases to underscore the systematic deviations from rational criteria (Haselton et al, 2005). As such, “biases are in substantial parts unconscious and often result from the use of heuristics” (Schirrmeister et al, 2020, p. 1).…”

Lessons Learned from a Two-Round Delphi-based Scenario Study

“…Next to the Delphi-based scenario approach described in this paper, de-bias strategies are also available in this broader context of scenario development in an overview by Schirrmeister et al. [45] . Choosing a cluster algorithm and number of clusters is not easy.…”