Protective Effect of COVID-19 Vaccine Among Health Care Workers During the Second Wave of the Pandemic in India

Victor, Peter John; Mathews, Kuruvilla Prasad; Paul, Hema; Mammen, Joy John; Murugesan, M.

doi:10.1016/j.mayocp.2021.06.003

Cited by 58 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 4 publications

(7 reference statements)

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“…The values from August 2021 onwards are based on forecasting and proportionate projections based on a drop in IgG seropositivity amongst the unimmunized and a ramp-up of immunization of the district. While the drop in seropositivity is based on the natural drop observed in actual serosurveillance surveys in the district in November 2020, December 2020, and January 2021 and available medical literature [ 4 ], the incidence of new cases is dependent on the available evidence of COVID-19 infection in subjects who have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in India [ 9 ]. While a 5% new individual vaccination coverage in the district every month would predict a minimum immunity of 59.69% in the community in October 2021 and a 4% new individual vaccination coverage in the district every month would predict a minimum immunity of 56.67% in the community in January 2022, a 3% new individual vaccination coverage would ensure a continuous drop in minimum immunity community to below 50% in March 2022.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Another limitation of this analysis and prediction model is the fact that it has been presumed that there will be no new mutant of SARS-CoV-2 that escapes the immunity provided by previous infection or vaccination. The projected maximum number of cases from August 2021 to March 2022 is based on the limited evidence of the study on protective immunity provided by a single dose of the COVID vaccines available in India [ 9 ]. However, with increasing coverage and availability of many types of vaccines, we will better understand the immunity provided by the various vaccines.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Access SARS-CoV-2 IgG II assay is reported to have 100% sensitivity and specificity [ 8 ]. The protective effect of the COVID-19 vaccine in India is derived from the existing literature, which suggests that even one dose is protective up to 61% from developing an infection, 70% from hospitalization, 96% from the need for oxygen therapy, and 95% from the need for intensive care unit admission [ 9 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The immunity in the community is defined by the formula: Percentage immunity in the district = Immunity developed through acquired infection among unimmunized plus Immunity developed through vaccination. [4], the incidence of new cases is dependent on the available evidence of COVID-19 infection in subjects who have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine in India [9]. While a 5% new individual vaccination coverage in the district every month would predict a minimum immunity of 59.69% in the community in October 2021 and a 4% new individual vaccination coverage in the district every month would predict a minimum immunity of 56.67% in the community in January 2022, a 3% new individual vaccination coverage would ensure a continuous drop in minimum immunity community to below 50% in March 2022.…”

Section: Figure 1: Findings Of Igg Sars-cov-2 Serosurveillance In East Singhbhum (Jharkhand India)mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Results of Serosurveillance and Forecasting the Third Wave of COVID-19 in an Industrial District in India

Nag¹,

Mishra²,

Chaudhry³

et al. 2021

Cureus

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Prevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibodies in the industrial district of East Singhbhum (Jharkhand, India) from July, August, November, and December 2020 and January 2021 after the first wave and in July 2021 after the second wave of coronavirus disease 2021 (COVID-19) infections may be utilized to find the possibility of a third wave of COVID-19 infections. Based on the trend of the loss of protective IgG antibodies after the first wave and the seropositivity of 75% in the district in July 2021, simple forecasting and proportional estimates of the seropositivity in the next eight months and the estimated maximum number of the cases was done. We also considered the seropositivity without vaccination in July 2021 (63%). Additionally, the trend of the weekly RT-PCR and rapid antigen testing for SARS-CoV-2 may also preemptively predict an imminent wave. Based on the East Singhbhum population and the vaccination coverage with at least one dose till July 2021 (Covishield or Covaxin), it is estimated that a 4-5% monthly vaccination coverage rate of new individuals will not allow the seropositivity to fall below 50% and hold at bay a major wave. Vaccination coverage of 3% or less would allow a continuous drop in acquired immunity in the district and can potentially cause a rise in cases, making the community susceptible to a future surge of infections. A 3-5% vaccination rate of new individuals is unlikely to see a drop in the community seropositivity below 50% and the number of new cases of COVID-19 infections going above 478 to 712 per month at least till March 2022. The assumptions are based on presuming that there will be no new mutant of SARS-CoV-2 that escapes the immunity provided by previous infection or vaccination over the next eight months. However, currently, there is no evidence to speculate on any new variant of concern causing a major wave globally. The B.1.617.2 (delta) variant was first identified in October 2020 and there was a lag of six months to the second surge of COVID-19 infections in East Singhbhum, primarily caused by this variant. Additionally, 3% and above, with a rising weekly trend of reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positivity for SARS-CoV-2 can provide at least four to eight weeks advance warning before the peak of the wave if an imminent future wave is impending.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Figure 1: Findings Of Igg Sars-cov-2 Serosurveillance In East Singhbhum (Jharkhand India)mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Results of Serosurveillance and Forecasting the Third Wave of COVID-19 in an Industrial District in India

Nag¹,

Mishra²,

Chaudhry³

et al. 2021

Cureus

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The need for continued physical risk mitigation measures even after vaccination is supported by mathematical models, which suggest that, even with perfect vaccine acceptance scenarios, it would likely take many months to a year for community spread to consistently remain at low levels that are not of concern [ 24 , 25 ]. The risk of rare breakthrough infections (i.e., vaccinated individuals that are infected with SARS-CoV-2) [ 172 , 173 ], the possibility of new viral variants emerging in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals due to the inherent biology of coronaviruses [ 174 ], and the fact that only a few countries currently have enough doses to vaccinate their populations [ 175 ] collectively validate the WHO’s abundance of caution and related recommendations [ 171 ]. Since the health of individuals in any part of the world has an impact on global health, all nations must show solidarity with the rest of the world and follow the WHO’s recommendations in order to aggressively vaccinate their populations, share unused vaccine doses with other countries, and continue to follow physical risk mitigation measures in order to complement worldwide vaccination efforts.…”

Section: Covid-19 Vaccination and Its Relevance To Women’s Health And Maintaining An Active Lifestylementioning

confidence: 99%

Women’s Lives Matter—The Critical Need for Women to Prioritize Optimal Physical Activity to Reduce COVID-19 Illness Risk and Severity

García‐Pelagio

Hew‐Butler

Fahlman

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Physical activity (PA) is beneficial for the health and wellness of individuals and societies. During an infectious disease pandemic, such as the one caused by COVID-19, social distancing, quarantines, and lockdowns are used to reduce community spread of the disease. Unfortunately, such nonpharmacological interventions or physical risk mitigation measures also make it challenging to engage in PA. Reduced PA could then trigger physiological changes that affect both mental and physical health. In this regard, women are more likely to experience physical and psychological distress. PA is a safe and effective nonpharmacological modality that can help prevent and manage several mental and physical health problems when performed correctly. PA might even confer benefits that are directly related to decreasing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in women. In this review, we summarize why optimal PA must be a priority for women during the COVID-19 pandemic. We then discuss chronic COVID-19 illness and its impact on women, which further underscores the need for worldwide preventive health strategies that include PA. Finally, we discuss the importance of vaccination against COVID-19 for women, as part of prioritizing preventive healthcare and an active lifestyle.

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Occurrence of COVID‐19 in priority groups receiving ChAdOx1 nCoV‐19 coronavirus vaccine (recombinant): A preliminary analysis from north India

Kaur

Bala

Ojha

et al. 2021

Journal of Medical Virology

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The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (Oxford University-Astra Zeneca) has demonstrated nearly 70% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 in trials and some real-world studies.The vaccine was the first to be approved in India in early January 2021 and is manufactured by the Serum Institute of India. Favorable short-term safety data of the vaccine in India in a real-world setting has been recently demonstrated. Here, we report secondary objective (COVID-19 occurrence) measures of the same ongoing prospective observational study in prioritized recipients of the vaccine. The findings are based on participants who could complete at least 2 months of follow-up (n = 1500; female/male: 472/1028; mean age: 38.8 years). Laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection was observed in 27/65 participants (41%) who received a single dose and 271/1435 (19%) who received both doses. Specifically, among doctors, 18/27 (66.7%) one dose recipients and 131/377 (34.7%) fully vaccinated developed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The majority of the cases were mild in all groups, and most were breakthrough infections. The occurrence of "severe" COVID-19 was 7.7 times lower (0.4%) in fully vaccinated participants compared to partially vaccinated (3.1%). Four deaths were observed in the study. One of the four deaths was due to sepsis, two due to unspecified cardiac events, and one due to unspecified post-COVID-19 complications. The results of this preliminary analysis necessitate vigorous research on the performance of vaccines against variants, optimal timing of vaccination, and also optimal timings of effectiveness studies to guide future vaccination policy.

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Protective Effect of COVID-19 Vaccine Among Health Care Workers During the Second Wave of the Pandemic in India

Cited by 58 publications

References 4 publications

Results of Serosurveillance and Forecasting the Third Wave of COVID-19 in an Industrial District in India

Results of Serosurveillance and Forecasting the Third Wave of COVID-19 in an Industrial District in India

Women’s Lives Matter—The Critical Need for Women to Prioritize Optimal Physical Activity to Reduce COVID-19 Illness Risk and Severity

Occurrence of COVID‐19 in priority groups receiving ChAdOx1 nCoV‐19 coronavirus vaccine (recombinant): A preliminary analysis from north India

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