Protected areas in Central Mexico - are they fit in promoting species persistence under climate and land use changes?

Abstract

Protected areas are among the most widely accepted methods to set aside biodiversity from their most impinging threats. However, protected areas are not always located such that their positive impacts over biodiversity are maximized. This drawback is especially significant and uncontrolled when intense climate-change dynamics stresses local biodiversity equilibrium. This study aims to weight plausible evolutive scenarios (up to 2040) of PA-effectiveness to secure the most suitable climates for 94 vertebrate species in Central Mexico, a region that, historically, has faced large biodiversity turnover rates. Effectiveness was appraised at two scales. For a set of species, effectiveness expresses the spatial matching of established protected areas (ePAs) with top priority areas (T17) obtained from an optmised area-selection protocol. For each single species, effectiveness relates the predicted trends of climate suitable areas within ePAs/T17 with trends outside ePAs/T17. Results show that aprox.54% of ePAs area occur within T17 and species present variable responses, with suitability gains up to 10% and potential climate suitability losses of aprox.30% within ePAs. A considerable high amount of T17 (aprox.74%) is left unprotected. By assuming the high-valued component of past conservation efforts, this study delivers a double-guidance for planners and decision-makers. First, it pinpoints the ePAs that will demand further conservation investments in the upcoming years. Second, it identifies the unprotected regions where most active conservation actions are needed to supplement ePAs for a climate-effective protected area network. The framework here-proposed gives decision-makers the means to undertake effective and robust decisions in a dynamic and uncertain world.

Species, taxonomic, and functional group diversities of terrestrial mammals at risk under climate change and land‐use/cover change scenarios in Mexico

“…However, there is not enough biological information for most small mammals to assure that rainfed agriculture area will allow permanent and reproductive populations to become established (Hidalgo‐Mihart et al, 2019 ); for example, these populations may be exposed to adverse conditions, such as those created by the use of pesticides (Torquetti et al, 2021 ). LUCC that results in extensive area loss of suitable habitat for species currently represents the main cause of conservation threats for terrestrial mammals in Mexico (Chacón‐Prieto et al, 2021 ; Cuervo‐Robayo & Monroy‐Vilchis, 2012 ; Mayani‐Parás et al, 2021 , 2022 ) and in other Neotropical biodiversity hotspots (Galetti et al, 2021 ; Linero et al, 2020 ).…”

“…Most species conform to large population abundances although illegal hunting and habitat loss are having a negative impact on several species of lagomorphs, such as L. callotis , L. flavigularis , and R. diazi (Mayani‐Parás et al, 2021 ; Velázquez, 2012 ), putting some species under a current high risk of extinction, such as the microendemic Omilteme cottontail rabbit S. insonus (Velázquez, 2012 ). Other orders of mammals are experiencing habitat loss and illegal hunting, which pose increasing challenges that should be incorporated in future conservation strategies (Chacón‐Prieto et al, 2021 ; Mayani‐Parás et al, 2021 , 2022 ; Sánchez‐Cordero et al, 2014 ).…”

“…LUCC that results in extensive area loss of suitable habitat for species currently represents the main cause of conservation threats for terrestrial mammals in Mexico (Chacón-Prieto et al, 2021;Cuervo-Robayo & Monroy-Vilchis, 2012;Mayani-Parás et al, 2021, 2022 and in other Neotropical biodiversity hotspots (Galetti et al, 2021;Linero et al, 2020).…”

Factors related to species richness, endemism, and conservation status of the herpetofauna (Amphibia and Reptilia) of Mexican states

“…More specifically, mean annual temperatures in Mexico have increased around 0.2 °C from 1970–2000, with greater increases in northern Mexico than in southern Mexico (see also Pavia et al 2009 ; Cuervo-Robayo et al 2020 ). This climate change has driven changes in the vegetation and distribution of habitats, especially in the mountains of Mexico ( Téllez-Valdés et al 2006 ; Gómez-Mendoza and Arriaga 2007 ; Jiménez-García et al 2021 ), and continued climate change is likely to result in the loss of suitable habitat in the future ( Chacón-Prieto et al 2021 ). Parts of Mexico are also undergoing rapid land use change through burning, human settlement, and conversion to agriculture, with extensive loss of forest, including in protected areas ( Lorenzo et al 2017 ; Hu et al 2021 ).…”

El cambio climático y su impacto en la vegetación mexicana: ¿qué podemos hacer?

“…Vegetación tropical climático que tensa el equilibrio de la biodiversidad a nivel local, regional y global, lo cual tiene variadas condiciones que se deben identificar en regiones desprotegidas, donde se necesitan acciones de conservación más activas para complementar una red de áreas protegidas climáticamente efectivas (Chacón et al, 2021)…”